{ "built_from": "42c8344", "count": 1809, "claims": [ { "key": "barring-members-congress-president", "kind": "belief", "text": "Barring members of Congress and the president from owning or trading individual stocks would reduce the use of public office for private gain.", "page": "p/barring-members-congress-president.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "barring-president-members-congress", "kind": "belief", "text": "Barring the president and members of Congress from giving any official government function to a family member would reduce the use of public office for private gain.", "page": "p/barring-president-members-congress.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "requiring-president-members-congress", "kind": "belief", "text": "Requiring the president and members of Congress to publish their tax returns would reduce the use of public office for private gain.", "page": "p/requiring-president-members-congress.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "kind": "belief", "text": "Letting Congress overturn a presidential pardon by a two-thirds vote of both chambers would reduce the use of the pardon power for private gain.", "page": "p/letting-congress-overturn-presidential.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-office-usable-private", "kind": "belief", "text": "Public office should not be usable for private gain.", "page": "p/public-office-usable-private.html", "belief": "public-office-usable-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-federal-ethics-statute", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every federal ethics statute since the 1962 conflict-of-interest reforms rests on this principle, so rejecting it would unsettle the whole body of law rather than one rule.", "page": "p/every-federal-ethics-statute.html", "belief": "public-office-usable-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-office-can-used", "kind": "claim", "text": "If office can be used for private gain, decisions go to whoever pays the most rather than to whoever is right, which is the definition of a government that does not work.", "page": "p/if-office-can-used.html", "belief": "public-office-usable-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "rare-principle-supermajority-agreement", "kind": "claim", "text": "It is the rare principle with supermajority agreement across parties: 86 percent of registered voters backed a congressional stock trading ban, including 87 percent of Republicans and 88 percent of Democrats.", "page": "p/rare-principle-supermajority-agreement.html", "belief": "public-office-usable-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "stated-level-principle-decides", "kind": "claim", "text": "Stated at this level the principle decides nothing, because every real dispute is about what counts as \"gain\" and what counts as \"using\" the office.", "page": "p/stated-level-principle-decides.html", "belief": "public-office-usable-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "taken-literally-bar-anyone", "kind": "claim", "text": "Taken literally it would bar anyone who owns anything from serving, which would leave office to people with no stake in the country they govern.", "page": "p/taken-literally-bar-anyone.html", "belief": "public-office-usable-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "members-regularly-trade-industries", "kind": "claim", "text": "Members regularly trade in the industries their own committees oversee, which puts a private financial stake on both sides of decisions they control.", "page": "p/members-regularly-trade-industries.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "disclosure-has-failed-check", "kind": "claim", "text": "Disclosure has failed as a check: 78 members of one Congress filed late under the STOCK Act, the standard penalty is a $200 fee that is routinely waived, and no member has faced a serious sanction.", "page": "p/disclosure-has-failed-check.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "holdings-ban-removes-conflict", "kind": "claim", "text": "A holdings ban removes the conflict itself instead of asking the public to police thousands of individual trades after the fact.", "page": "p/holdings-ban-removes-conflict.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-reserve-barred-its", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Federal Reserve barred its own policymakers from holding individual stocks in 2022 and kept functioning and kept hiring, which shows a comparable institution can operate under the rule.", "page": "p/federal-reserve-barred-its.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "trading-closed-briefing-almost", "kind": "claim", "text": "Trading on a closed briefing is almost impossible to prosecute, so the only rule that can actually be enforced is one that does not require proving what an official knew.", "page": "p/trading-closed-briefing-almost.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "best-identified-studies-actual", "kind": "claim", "text": "The best-identified studies of actual returns find congressional portfolios underperform the market, which is hard to square with a systematic insider advantage.", "page": "p/best-identified-studies-actual.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "ban-official-leaves-conflict", "kind": "claim", "text": "A ban on the official leaves the conflict in place through spouses, dependent children, private partnerships, real estate and crypto, none of which most proposals reach.", "page": "p/ban-official-leaves-conflict.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "forced-divestiture-imposes-real", "kind": "claim", "text": "Forced divestiture imposes real costs on officials of ordinary means and narrows who can afford to serve.", "page": "p/forced-divestiture-imposes-real.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "members-keep-property-rights", "kind": "claim", "text": "Members keep the property rights of other citizens, and a ban restricts a lawful activity because of the job someone holds.", "page": "p/members-keep-property-rights.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "congress-will-enforce-ban", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congress will not enforce a ban on itself, so the statute would put a symbol in place of the enforcement reform that could work.", "page": "p/congress-will-enforce-ban.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "senators-stock-purchases-beat", "kind": "claim", "text": "Senators' stock purchases beat the market by about 85 basis points a month, roughly 10 percent a year, over 1993 to 1998.", "page": "p/senators-stock-purchases-beat.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "trades-placed-before-legislative", "kind": "claim", "text": "Trades placed before legislative events earned abnormal returns of about 3 to 5 percent over 2014 to 2021.", "page": "p/trades-placed-before-legislative.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "78-members-117th-congress", "kind": "claim", "text": "78 members of the 117th Congress violated the STOCK Act's disclosure deadlines.", "page": "p/78-members-117th-congress.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "131-federal-judges-heard", "kind": "claim", "text": "131 federal judges heard 685 cases involving companies in which they or their families held stock, over 2010 to 2018.", "page": "p/131-federal-judges-heard.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-reserve-officials-have", "kind": "claim", "text": "Federal Reserve officials have been barred from holding individual stocks, sector funds, individual bonds, crypto and derivatives since May 2022, with preclearance and a one-year holding period.", "page": "p/federal-reserve-officials-have.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "congressional-portfolios-underperformed-market", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congressional portfolios underperformed market benchmarks by roughly 2 to 3 percent a year over 2004 to 2008.", "page": "p/congressional-portfolios-underperformed-market.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "no-evidence-members-congress", "kind": "claim", "text": "No evidence that members of Congress outperformed the market over 2012 to 2020, the period after the STOCK Act.", "page": "p/no-evidence-members-congress.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "five-years-after-ban", "kind": "claim", "text": "Five years after a ban takes effect, individual equity holdings reported by members fall to near zero and no trading scandal originates in Congress.", "page": "p/five-years-after-ban.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-trust-congress-five", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public trust in Congress five years after a ban is higher than the pre-ban trend predicted.", "page": "p/public-trust-congress-five.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "jurisdiction-adopts-holdings-ban", "kind": "claim", "text": "A jurisdiction that adopts a holdings ban shows conflicted votes falling relative to comparable bodies that did not.", "page": "p/jurisdiction-adopts-holdings-ban.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "reported-conflicts-migrate-spouse", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reported conflicts migrate to spouse accounts and private partnerships, leaving the total number of conflict complaints unchanged.", "page": "p/reported-conflicts-migrate-spouse.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "share-incoming-members-whose", "kind": "claim", "text": "The share of incoming members whose wealth is in the top 1 percent rises after a ban.", "page": "p/share-incoming-members-whose.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "post-reform-studies-continue", "kind": "claim", "text": "Post-reform studies continue to find no abnormal returns, so there is no trading advantage for a ban to remove.", "page": "p/post-reform-studies-continue.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "members-stop-voting-industries", "kind": "claim", "text": "Members stop voting on industries in which they hold a personal stake.", "page": "p/members-stop-voting-industries.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-stop-placing-trades", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials stop placing trades ahead of government announcements.", "page": "p/officials-stop-placing-trades.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "voters-can-tell-compromised", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voters can tell a compromised official from a clean one without an investigation.", "page": "p/voters-can-tell-compromised.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-get-one-rule", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials get one rule they can follow without a lawyer instead of a reporting regime they violate by accident.", "page": "p/officials-get-one-rule.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-sell-holdings-schedule", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials sell holdings on a schedule they did not choose and pay tax on the gains.", "page": "p/officials-sell-holdings-schedule.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "mid-career-professionals-savings", "kind": "claim", "text": "Mid-career professionals with savings in individual equities decline to run.", "page": "p/mid-career-professionals-savings.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "officeholders-lose-income-currently", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officeholders lose income they currently earn from trading on their position.", "page": "p/officeholders-lose-income-currently.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "members-divest-move-holdings", "kind": "claim", "text": "Members divest or move holdings into diversified funds within the compliance window.", "page": "p/members-divest-move-holdings.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "filing-volume-falls-because", "kind": "claim", "text": "Filing volume falls because there are fewer transactions to report.", "page": "p/filing-volume-falls-because.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "conflict-complaints-shift-trading", "kind": "claim", "text": "Conflict complaints shift from trading to family and outside business interests.", "page": "p/conflict-complaints-shift-trading.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "rule-becomes-unremarkable-judicial", "kind": "claim", "text": "The rule becomes unremarkable, as judicial and executive branch holding rules did.", "page": "p/rule-becomes-unremarkable-judicial.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-financial-holdings-currently", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials' financial holdings currently influence how they vote and what they say.", "page": "p/officials-financial-holdings-currently.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "removing-holding-removes-influence", "kind": "claim", "text": "Removing the holding removes the influence rather than relocating it to a spouse, a partnership or a post-office job.", "page": "p/removing-holding-removes-influence.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "holdings-ban-can-enacted", "kind": "claim", "text": "A holdings ban can be enacted and enforced against sitting members.", "page": "p/holdings-ban-can-enacted.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "reducing-conflicts-worth-narrower", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reducing conflicts is worth a narrower candidate pool and a real compliance burden.", "page": "p/reducing-conflicts-worth-narrower.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-respond-financial-incentives", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials respond to financial incentives the way other people do.", "page": "p/officials-respond-financial-incentives.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "disclosure-alone-sufficient-when", "kind": "claim", "text": "Disclosure alone is sufficient when it is actually enforced.", "page": "p/disclosure-alone-sufficient-when.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "both-sides-want-officials", "kind": "claim", "text": "Both sides want officials who are not, and do not appear to be, for sale.", "page": "p/both-sides-want-officials.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "bar-individual-stocks-sector", "kind": "claim", "text": "Bar individual stocks, sector funds and derivatives for the official, spouse and dependent children; keep diversified funds and Treasuries legal; allow deferral of capital gains on forced divestiture; and set the penalty at a share of the transaction rather than a flat fee.", "page": "p/bar-individual-stocks-sector.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "advertised-reason-what-actually", "kind": "claim", "text": "The advertised reason is not what actually drives the position: Stop officials from trading on what they learn in office.", "page": "p/advertised-reason-what-actually.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "advertised-reason-what-actually-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "The advertised reason is not what actually drives the position: Protect ordinary property rights.", "page": "p/advertised-reason-what-actually-2.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-bound-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "The people who would be bound are the people who must vote for it.", "page": "p/people-who-bound-people.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "opponents-cannot-point-benefit", "kind": "claim", "text": "Opponents cannot point to a benefit of officials owning individual stocks that a diversified fund does not provide.", "page": "p/opponents-cannot-point-benefit.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "scandal-salience-handful-vivid", "kind": "claim", "text": "Scandal salience: a handful of vivid cases stands in for a rate nobody has measured.", "page": "p/scandal-salience-handful-vivid.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "self-interest-status-quo", "kind": "claim", "text": "Self-interest and status quo bias among the officials who would be bound.", "page": "p/self-interest-status-quo.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "stock-act-2012-made", "kind": "claim", "text": "The STOCK Act of 2012 made insider trading law explicitly applicable to Congress and required transaction reports within 45 days.", "page": "p/stock-act-2012-made.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "courthouse-ethics-transparency-act", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Courthouse Ethics and Transparency Act of 2022 applied the same transaction reporting to federal judges and created a searchable database.", "page": "p/courthouse-ethics-transparency-act.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "criminal-conflict-interest-statute", "kind": "claim", "text": "The criminal conflict-of-interest statute does not apply to the president, the vice president, members of Congress or federal judges.", "page": "p/criminal-conflict-interest-statute.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "citizens-keep-ordinary-rights", "kind": "claim", "text": "Citizens keep their ordinary rights when they take public office.", "page": "p/citizens-keep-ordinary-rights.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "senior-executive-branch-officials", "kind": "claim", "text": "Senior executive branch officials and their spouses should be barred from holding individual stocks.", "page": "p/senior-executive-branch-officials.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "congressional-staff-access-nonpublic", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congressional staff with access to nonpublic information should face the same ban.", "page": "p/congressional-staff-access-nonpublic.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "members-congress-barred-owning", "kind": "claim", "text": "Members of Congress should be barred from owning any asset other than Treasury securities and diversified funds while in office.", "page": "p/members-congress-barred-owning.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "members-congress-required-place", "kind": "claim", "text": "Members of Congress should be required to place individual stocks in a qualified blind trust.", "page": "p/members-congress-required-place.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "senators-jeff-merkley-josh", "kind": "claim", "text": "Senators Jeff Merkley, Josh Hawley and Jon Ossoff have sponsored or cosponsored legislation to ban congressional stock trading.", "page": "p/senators-jeff-merkley-josh.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "representatives-chip-roy-seth", "kind": "claim", "text": "Representatives Chip Roy and Seth Magaziner have sponsored the leading House bills in the 119th Congress.", "page": "p/representatives-chip-roy-seth.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "speaker-nancy-pelosi-said", "kind": "claim", "text": "Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in December 2021 that members should be able to participate in the free-market economy, before later supporting floor consideration of a ban.", "page": "p/speaker-nancy-pelosi-said.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "anti-nepotism-statute-stops", "kind": "claim", "text": "The anti-nepotism statute stops at the White House door, so the rule does not reach the place where the stakes are highest.", "page": "p/anti-nepotism-statute-stops.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relative-cannot-supervised-disciplined", "kind": "claim", "text": "A relative cannot be supervised, disciplined or fired the way another official can, so the ordinary checks on an official's conduct do not operate.", "page": "p/relative-cannot-supervised-disciplined.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "official-role-gives-family", "kind": "claim", "text": "An official role gives a family member a channel that foreign governments and business partners can use, with the family's private interests attached to it.", "page": "p/official-role-gives-family.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "rule-already-applies-every", "kind": "claim", "text": "The rule already applies to every other federal agency, so extending it closes a gap rather than inventing a restriction.", "page": "p/rule-already-applies-every.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "formal-appointment-what-brings", "kind": "claim", "text": "Formal appointment is what brings a relative inside the ethics rules; a bar pushes the same influence outside them, where nothing applies.", "page": "p/formal-appointment-what-brings.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "problem-people-actually-point", "kind": "claim", "text": "The problem people actually point to is relatives trading on the family name in private business, which this proposal does not touch.", "page": "p/problem-people-actually-point.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "president-entitled-advisers-he", "kind": "claim", "text": "A president is entitled to advisers he trusts, and Congress's power to tell him whom he may consult is constitutionally contested.", "page": "p/president-entitled-advisers-he.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "competence-neither-inherited-nor", "kind": "claim", "text": "Competence is neither inherited nor disqualified by relation, and a blanket bar excludes people for a relationship rather than for a conflict.", "page": "p/competence-neither-inherited-nor.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "justice-department-concluded-federal", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Justice Department concluded that the federal anti-nepotism statute does not bar a presidential relative's appointment to the White House Office.", "page": "p/justice-department-concluded-federal.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relatives-marriage-have-held", "kind": "claim", "text": "Relatives by marriage have held Senate-confirmed and envoy positions outside the White House Office, including an ambassadorship in 2025 and a special envoy designation in February 2026.", "page": "p/relatives-marriage-have-held.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relatives-who-became-federal", "kind": "claim", "text": "Relatives who became federal employees filed public financial disclosures reporting assets of up to roughly $762 million, with multiple amendments adding previously omitted holdings.", "page": "p/relatives-who-became-federal.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-candidates-paid-combined", "kind": "claim", "text": "Federal candidates paid a combined $1.3 million in wages to people sharing their surname in one election cycle, entirely through campaign committees that no official-duty rule reaches.", "page": "p/federal-candidates-paid-combined.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-bar-takes-effect", "kind": "claim", "text": "After a bar takes effect, no relative of a president or a member holds a White House, envoy or ambassadorial post.", "page": "p/after-bar-takes-effect.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "documented-contacts-which-foreign", "kind": "claim", "text": "Documented contacts in which a foreign government routes business through a presidential relative fall relative to the preceding decade.", "page": "p/documented-contacts-which-foreign.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relatives-continue-shape-policy", "kind": "claim", "text": "Relatives continue to shape policy as private citizens and unpaid informal advisers, and the number of documented family-channel contacts is unchanged.", "page": "p/relatives-continue-shape-policy.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "official-decisions-stop-being", "kind": "claim", "text": "Official decisions stop being made by people the president cannot supervise or remove in the ordinary way.", "page": "p/official-decisions-stop-being.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "foreign-governments-lose-contact", "kind": "claim", "text": "Foreign governments lose a contact point that carries private family interests with it.", "page": "p/foreign-governments-lose-contact.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "career-staff-can-raise", "kind": "claim", "text": "Career staff can raise objections to a senior adviser without raising them to the president about his own family.", "page": "p/career-staff-can-raise.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "president-loses-advisers-he", "kind": "claim", "text": "A president loses advisers he trusts most, at some cost to the quality of advice he acts on.", "page": "p/president-loses-advisers-he.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "qualified-people-excluded-public", "kind": "claim", "text": "Qualified people are excluded from public service for a family relationship they did not choose.", "page": "p/qualified-people-excluded-public.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "influence-moves-informal-channels", "kind": "claim", "text": "Influence moves to informal channels that file nothing and leave no record.", "page": "p/influence-moves-informal-channels.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relative-official-role-creates", "kind": "claim", "text": "A relative in an official role creates conflicts that ordinary supervision and ethics rules cannot check.", "page": "p/relative-official-role-creates.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "bar-removes-influence-rather", "kind": "claim", "text": "A bar removes the influence rather than pushing it into informal channels.", "page": "p/bar-removes-influence-rather.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "congress-can-impose-bar", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congress can impose the bar on White House appointments.", "page": "p/congress-can-impose-bar.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "both-sides-want-relatives", "kind": "claim", "text": "Both sides want relatives' financial interests visible rather than hidden.", "page": "p/both-sides-want-relatives.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "bar-relatives-senate-confirmed", "kind": "claim", "text": "Bar relatives from Senate-confirmed and envoy positions, and require anyone performing official functions, whatever their title, to file the same disclosures and follow the same conflict rules as an employee.", "page": "p/bar-relatives-senate-confirmed.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relatives-president-barred-senate", "kind": "claim", "text": "Relatives of the president should be barred from Senate-confirmed positions but permitted to serve as unpaid advisers subject to full disclosure.", "page": "p/relatives-president-barred-senate.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "return-shows-what-financial", "kind": "claim", "text": "A return shows what the financial disclosure form does not: exact income and its character, foreign income and foreign tax credits, business losses carried forward, charitable giving, and the rate actually paid.", "page": "p/return-shows-what-financial.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "internal-check-failed-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "The internal check failed in the one case that tested it: the mandatory presidential audit was dormant, and the audit of the first two years opened the day Congress asked for the returns.", "page": "p/internal-check-failed-one.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-president-carter-through", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every president from Carter through Obama released returns voluntarily, so a requirement restores a forty-year norm rather than inventing an obligation.", "page": "p/every-president-carter-through.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "published-return-can-checked", "kind": "claim", "text": "A published return can be checked by anyone, which is the only enforcement that does not depend on an agency the official appoints.", "page": "p/published-return-can-checked.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "return-shows-tax-positions", "kind": "claim", "text": "A return shows tax positions, not conflicts, and the disclosure form already lists assets, income sources, liabilities and positions in categories built for conflict screening.", "page": "p/return-shows-tax-positions.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "publication-exposes-spouses-children", "kind": "claim", "text": "Publication exposes spouses, children and business partners who never ran for office.", "page": "p/publication-exposes-spouses-children.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "route-constitutionally-narrow-disclosure", "kind": "claim", "text": "The route is constitutionally narrow: a disclosure condition on ballot access was already struck down once, and a badly drafted rule would be litigated rather than obeyed.", "page": "p/route-constitutionally-narrow-disclosure.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "sophisticated-wealth-sits-pass", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sophisticated wealth sits in pass-through entities and trusts that file their own returns, so a personal return can be published and show very little.", "page": "p/sophisticated-wealth-sits-pass.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "mandatory-irs-audit-presidential", "kind": "claim", "text": "The mandatory IRS audit of presidential returns was \"dormant, at best,\" and the audit of the 2015 and 2016 returns opened on April 3, 2019, the day the committee requested them; only 2016 was completed in office.", "page": "p/mandatory-irs-audit-presidential.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "nixon-released-his-returns", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nixon released his returns in December 1973 and asked the Joint Committee on Taxation to review them; the review found roughly $465,000 in back taxes owed.", "page": "p/nixon-released-his-returns.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-financial-disclosure-form", "kind": "claim", "text": "The public financial disclosure form already requires assets, income sources, liabilities, positions, agreements and gifts, reported in value ranges.", "page": "p/public-financial-disclosure-form.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "state-law-requiring-five", "kind": "claim", "text": "A state law requiring five years of returns from presidential primary candidates was struck down unanimously on state constitutional grounds.", "page": "p/state-law-requiring-five.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-two-election-cycles", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within two election cycles of a publication requirement, at least one significant undisclosed foreign income source or lender relationship is found in a published return.", "page": "p/within-two-election-cycles.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "published-returns-add-nothing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Published returns add nothing to what the disclosure form already showed, and no conflict is identified from a return that the form had not already flagged.", "page": "p/published-returns-add-nothing.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "foreign-income-lender-relationships", "kind": "claim", "text": "Foreign income and lender relationships become visible without a subpoena.", "page": "p/foreign-income-lender-relationships.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "voters-can-judge-official", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voters can judge an official's financial entanglements before voting rather than after an investigation.", "page": "p/voters-can-judge-official.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "audit-president-stops-depending", "kind": "claim", "text": "The audit of the president stops depending on an agency the president appoints.", "page": "p/audit-president-stops-depending.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "spouses-children-business-partners", "kind": "claim", "text": "Spouses, children and business partners have their finances published without holding office.", "page": "p/spouses-children-business-partners.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-structure-finances-look", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials structure their finances to look unremarkable rather than to be efficient.", "page": "p/officials-structure-finances-look.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "returns-read-scandal-rather", "kind": "claim", "text": "Returns are read as scandal rather than as data, and complex but lawful items are litigated in public.", "page": "p/returns-read-scandal-rather.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "tax-returns-contain-conflict", "kind": "claim", "text": "Tax returns contain conflict-relevant information that the financial disclosure form does not.", "page": "p/tax-returns-contain-conflict.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "publication-changes-what-officials", "kind": "claim", "text": "Publication changes what officials do, or lets someone act on what it shows.", "page": "p/publication-changes-what-officials.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-publication-requirement-officeholders", "kind": "claim", "text": "A federal publication requirement for officeholders can be enacted and would survive review.", "page": "p/federal-publication-requirement-officeholders.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "both-sides-want-conflicts", "kind": "claim", "text": "Both sides want conflicts visible; they disagree about which document shows them.", "page": "p/both-sides-want-conflicts.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "require-exact-values-rather", "kind": "claim", "text": "Require exact values rather than ranges on the disclosure form, add foreign income and lender identity, and require the president to publish returns while leaving members under the enhanced form.", "page": "p/require-exact-values-rather.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "all-senior-federal-officials", "kind": "claim", "text": "All senior federal officials, including agency heads and judges, should publish their tax returns annually.", "page": "p/all-senior-federal-officials.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "clemency-only-executive-power", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clemency is the only executive power with no check at all: impeachment reaches the officer, not the act, and the act is final the moment it is signed.", "page": "p/clemency-only-executive-power.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "pardons-granted-president-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Pardons granted to the president's relatives, donors, business partners and co-defendants are the clearest case of office used for private benefit, and nothing reviews them.", "page": "p/pardons-granted-president-s.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "two-thirds-threshold-means", "kind": "claim", "text": "A two-thirds threshold means only the pardons that both parties find indefensible would ever be reversed.", "page": "p/two-thirds-threshold-means.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": 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"reversible-pardon-pardon-nobody", "kind": "claim", "text": "A reversible pardon is not a pardon: nobody could rely on it, and the power to settle whole classes of cases through amnesties would end.", "page": "p/reversible-pardon-pardon-nobody.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "narrower-fix-reaches-actual", "kind": "claim", "text": "A narrower fix reaches the actual abuse without touching the power: prosecute bribes paid for pardons, and require the review file to be published.", "page": "p/narrower-fix-reaches-actual.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "58-percent-americans-said", "kind": "claim", "text": "58 percent of Americans said the president grants too many pardons and 56 percent supported a constitutional amendment limiting the power, with Democrats at 76 percent and Republicans at 34 percent.", "page": "p/58-percent-americans-said.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-judge-unsealed-redacted", "kind": "claim", "text": "A federal judge unsealed a redacted opinion describing a Justice Department investigation into an alleged bribery-for-pardon scheme; no names were released and nobody was charged.", "page": "p/federal-judge-unsealed-redacted.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "independent-boards-hold-gate", "kind": "claim", "text": "Independent boards hold or gate the clemency power in more than a dozen states, and those systems operate continuously.", "page": "p/independent-boards-hold-gate.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "supreme-court-held-pardon", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Supreme Court held that the pardon power is not subject to legislative control and that Congress can neither limit the effect of a pardon nor exclude any class of offenders from it.", "page": "p/supreme-court-held-pardon.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "proposals-let-congress-nullify", "kind": "claim", "text": "Proposals to let Congress nullify pardons by two-thirds vote have been introduced with bipartisan sponsorship and have not moved out of committee.", "page": "p/proposals-let-congress-nullify.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "decade-after-override-mechanism", "kind": "claim", "text": "In the decade after an override mechanism exists, the share of clemency grants that bypass the Justice Department review process falls.", "page": "p/decade-after-override-mechanism.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "override-never-used-because", "kind": "claim", "text": "The override is never used, because two thirds of both chambers cannot be assembled against a president whose party holds a third of either one.", "page": "p/override-never-used-because.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "presidents-shift-pre-emptive", "kind": "claim", "text": "Presidents shift to pre-emptive and blanket pardons issued on the last day, where an override vote arrives after the recipients have scattered.", "page": "p/presidents-shift-pre-emptive.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "pardons-granted-president-s-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Pardons granted to the president's own circle become reviewable rather than final.", "page": "p/pardons-granted-president-s-2.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "prospect-vote-deters-grants", "kind": "claim", "text": "The prospect of a vote deters the grants that could not survive one.", "page": "p/prospect-vote-deters-grants.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "clemency-decisions-return-justice", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clemency decisions return to the Justice Department review process that screens petitions on the merits.", "page": "p/clemency-decisions-return-justice.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "unpopular-but-just-clemency", "kind": "claim", "text": "Unpopular but just clemency becomes harder, which is the case the power exists for.", "page": "p/unpopular-but-just-clemency.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "recipients-cannot-rely-pardon", "kind": "claim", "text": "Recipients cannot rely on a pardon, so it settles nothing until the override window closes.", "page": "p/recipients-cannot-rely-pardon.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-controversial-clemency-decision", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every controversial clemency decision becomes another partisan floor fight.", "page": "p/every-controversial-clemency-decision.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "some-pardons-granted-president", "kind": "claim", "text": "Some pardons are granted for the president's private benefit.", "page": "p/some-pardons-granted-president.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "congressional-override-deter-reverse", "kind": "claim", "text": "A congressional override would deter or reverse the grants at issue.", "page": "p/congressional-override-deter-reverse.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "override-mechanism-can-enacted", "kind": "claim", "text": "An override mechanism can be enacted.", "page": "p/override-mechanism-can-enacted.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "both-sides-agree-selling", "kind": "claim", "text": "Both sides agree that selling a pardon is a crime and that nobody currently checks whether one was sold.", "page": "p/both-sides-agree-selling.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "require-pardon-attorney-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Require the Pardon Attorney's file and the president's stated reasons to be published for every grant, and let Congress reverse a grant within sixty days by two-thirds vote, adopted as a constitutional amendment.", "page": "p/require-pardon-attorney-s.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "pardon-power-abolished-replaced", "kind": "claim", "text": "The pardon power should be abolished and replaced with a clemency commission whose decisions the president may only ratify.", "page": "p/pardon-power-abolished-replaced.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "president-barred-pardoning-relatives", "kind": "claim", "text": "A president should be barred from pardoning relatives, donors and co-defendants, with no general override.", "page": "p/president-barred-pardoning-relatives.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "large-companies-required-law", "kind": "belief", "text": "Large companies should be required by law to give their workers seats on their boards.", "page": "p/large-companies-required-law.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "workers-bear-costs-bad", "kind": "claim", "text": "Workers bear the costs of bad decisions such as layoffs and plant closures, so they deserve a voice in making them.", "page": "p/workers-bear-costs-bad.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "workers-know-how-company", "kind": "claim", "text": "Workers know how the company actually runs day to day, and boards make better decisions with that knowledge in the room.", "page": "p/workers-know-how-company.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "board-answers-only-shareholders", "kind": "claim", "text": "A board that answers only to shareholders tends to chase short-term stock gains at the expense of the company's long-term health.", "page": "p/board-answers-only-shareholders.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "owners-put-money-risk", "kind": "claim", "text": "Owners put their money at risk, and the people who bear the financial risk should be the ones who control the company.", "page": "p/owners-put-money-risk.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "worker-directors-face-conflict", "kind": "claim", "text": "Worker directors face a conflict of interest whenever the board must cut jobs or close a site to keep the company alive.", "page": "p/worker-directors-face-conflict.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "boards-two-sets-loyalties", "kind": "claim", "text": "Boards with two sets of loyalties reach decisions more slowly, and slow companies lose to faster rivals.", "page": "p/boards-two-sets-loyalties.html", "belief": "large-companies-required-law", "draft": false }, { "key": "company-generally-serves-public", "kind": "belief", "text": "A company generally serves the public best when it focuses on making a profit for its owners within the law.", "page": "p/company-generally-serves-public.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "profit-signal-company-making", "kind": "claim", "text": "Profit is a signal that a company is making something people want at a price they will pay, which is itself a public service.", "page": "p/profit-signal-company-making.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "managers-who-told-serve", "kind": "claim", "text": "Managers who are told to serve everyone end up answering to no one and can excuse poor results as serving some other goal.", "page": "p/managers-who-told-serve.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "broad-social-problems-job", "kind": "claim", "text": "Broad social problems are the job of elected governments, which answer to voters, not of managers who answer to no voter.", "page": "p/broad-social-problems-job.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-company-s-costs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many of a company's costs, like pollution or worker burnout, fall on people who never agreed to bear them and never show up in the profit figure.", "page": "p/many-company-s-costs.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "law-always-lags-behind", "kind": "claim", "text": "The law always lags behind business practice, so a company that does only what the law requires will harm people the law has not yet caught up with.", "page": "p/law-always-lags-behind.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "companies-treat-workers-suppliers", "kind": "claim", "text": "Companies that treat workers, suppliers and towns well tend to earn trust that pays off over decades, which a narrow focus on profit misses.", "page": "p/companies-treat-workers-suppliers.html", "belief": "company-generally-serves-public", "draft": false }, { "key": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "kind": "belief", "text": "Streaming services generally pay working musicians too little to make a living from recorded music.", "page": "p/streaming-services-generally-pay.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "single-play-earns-almost", "kind": "claim", "text": "A single play earns almost nothing, so only artists with enormous audiences see meaningful income from their recordings.", "page": "p/single-play-earns-almost.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-split-so-most", "kind": "claim", "text": "The money is split so that most of it flows to labels, publishers and the platforms before any reaches the person who wrote or performed the song.", "page": "p/money-split-so-most.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "musicians-now-depend-touring", "kind": "claim", "text": "Musicians now depend on touring and merchandise to survive, which favors the young and healthy and pushes out those who cannot live on the road.", "page": "p/musicians-now-depend-touring.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "streaming-brought-paying-listeners", "kind": "claim", "text": "Streaming brought paying listeners back after years of free downloading, and total music income has grown again as a result, spread across far more artists.", "page": "p/streaming-brought-paying-listeners.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "before-streaming-most-musicians", "kind": "claim", "text": "Before streaming, most musicians earned nothing from recordings because they never got a record deal at all, so the comparison is with obscurity, not with a golden age.", "page": "p/before-streaming-most-musicians.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "low-per-play-rates", "kind": "claim", "text": "Low per-play rates reflect what listeners will pay for unlimited music, and forcing rates higher would shrink the audience rather than raise incomes.", "page": "p/low-per-play-rates.html", "belief": "streaming-services-generally-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "kind": "belief", "text": "Streaming has clearly done more good than harm for musicians by letting anyone reach a worldwide audience without a record label.", "page": "p/streaming-has-clearly-done.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "any-musician-can-upload", "kind": "claim", "text": "Any musician can upload a song and be heard anywhere in the world the same day, which was impossible when labels controlled distribution.", "page": "p/any-musician-can-upload.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "listeners-discover-artists-other", "kind": "claim", "text": "Listeners discover artists from other countries and small scenes, so careers can start from anywhere instead of a few music-industry cities.", "page": "p/listeners-discover-artists-other.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "artists-keep-rights-own", "kind": "claim", "text": "Artists keep the rights to their own work more often, because they no longer need a label's money to press records and ship them to stores.", "page": "p/artists-keep-rights-own.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-everyone-can-publish", "kind": "claim", "text": "When everyone can publish, the flood of new songs makes it harder than ever for any one artist to be noticed, and reach without attention is worth little.", "page": "p/when-everyone-can-publish.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "playlists-chosen-platform-staff", "kind": "claim", "text": "Playlists chosen by platform staff and software have replaced record labels as gatekeepers, so artists still depend on a few decision-makers they cannot reach.", "page": "p/playlists-chosen-platform-staff.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "making-music-available-almost", "kind": "claim", "text": "Making music available for almost nothing worldwide has taught listeners that music should cost nothing, and that expectation follows artists into every other part of their business.", "page": "p/making-music-available-almost.html", "belief": "streaming-has-clearly-done", "draft": false }, { "key": "comedians-generally-able-joke", "kind": "belief", "text": "Comedians should generally be able to joke about any subject without losing work over the offense a 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"key": "professionals-who-trusted-stay", "kind": "claim", "text": "Professionals who are trusted stay in the job longer, and turnover harms students more than any curriculum choice.", "page": "p/professionals-who-trusted-stay.html", "belief": "teachers-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "lessons-teacher-believes-taught", "kind": "claim", "text": "Lessons a teacher believes in are taught with an energy that students notice, and scripted lessons rarely earn that belief.", "page": "p/lessons-teacher-believes-taught.html", "belief": "teachers-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-teachers-were-never", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most teachers were never trained to design a curriculum, and asking each one to build their own means many students get an untested plan.", "page": "p/most-teachers-were-never.html", "belief": "teachers-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "well-designed-materials-carry", "kind": "claim", "text": "Well-designed materials carry the 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"internet-providers-generally-barred", "draft": false }, { "key": "all-traffic-alike-live", "kind": "claim", "text": "Not all traffic is alike; a live video call suffers far more from delay than a file download does, and a legal ban on favoring traffic turns sensible prioritizing into a legal risk.", "page": "p/all-traffic-alike-live.html", "belief": "internet-providers-generally-barred", "draft": false }, { "key": "building-faster-networks-costs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Building faster networks costs a great deal, and letting providers charge the services that send the most traffic for faster delivery helps pay for upgrades that all users share.", "page": "p/building-faster-networks-costs.html", "belief": "internet-providers-generally-barred", "draft": false }, { "key": "providers-rarely-block-throttle", "kind": "claim", "text": "Providers rarely block or throttle in practice because customers and the press notice quickly, so the rule solves a problem that mostly does not occur.", "page": "p/providers-rarely-block-throttle.html", "belief": "internet-providers-generally-barred", "draft": false }, { "key": "laws-require-people-prove", "kind": "belief", "text": "Laws that require people to prove their age before using social media do more harm than good.", "page": "p/laws-require-people-prove.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "proving-age-means-handing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Proving age means handing an ID or a face scan to a company or a middleman, which creates a new store of sensitive data that can leak or be misused.", "page": "p/proving-age-means-handing.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "teenagers-who-blocked-mainstream", "kind": "claim", "text": "Teenagers who are blocked from mainstream sites do not stop going online; they move to smaller, less moderated places where the risks are greater.", "page": "p/teenagers-who-blocked-mainstream.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "age-rules-set-law", "kind": "claim", "text": "Age rules set by law sweep in adults too, since everyone has to pass the same check, so a protection for minors becomes a barrier for all.", "page": "p/age-rules-set-law.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "society-already-requires-proof", "kind": "claim", "text": "Society already requires proof of age for alcohol, gambling and driving, and there is no principled reason that products children use heavily and that are built to hold their attention should be exempt.", "page": "p/society-already-requires-proof.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "leaving-choice-parents-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "Leaving the choice to parents has not worked, because a child needs only one friend with an account to feel left out, and parents cannot supervise every hour.", "page": "p/leaving-choice-parents-has.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "companies-can-verify-age", "kind": "claim", "text": "Companies can verify age without keeping the underlying documents, but voluntary adoption has been patchy and inconsistent, which is why a uniform legal requirement is needed.", "page": "p/companies-can-verify-age.html", "belief": "laws-require-people-prove", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should support and strengthen democracy to restore the voter's voice.", "page": "p/we-support-strengthen-democracy.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "partisan-primaries-let-small", "kind": "claim", "text": "Partisan primaries let a small and unrepresentative group of voters pick the choices everyone else gets in the general election.", "page": "p/partisan-primaries-let-small.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": 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"draft": false }, { "key": "campaign-finance-restrictions-collide", "kind": "claim", "text": "Campaign finance restrictions collide with the First Amendment's protection of political spending as speech.", "page": "p/campaign-finance-restrictions-collide.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "nonpartisan-primaries-may-weaken", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nonpartisan primaries may weaken party accountability rather than strengthen the voter's voice.", "page": "p/nonpartisan-primaries-may-weaken.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "congress-polls-15-25", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congress polls at 15 to 25 percent approval while incumbent reelection rates exceed 90 percent.", "page": "p/congress-polls-15-25.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "primary-voters-measure-significantly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Primary voters measure significantly more ideologically 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compared with maps drawn by legislatures.", "page": "p/independent-redistricting-commissions-arizona.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "policy-outcomes-correlate-preferences", "kind": "claim", "text": "Policy outcomes correlate with the preferences of economic elites at far higher rates than with the preferences of the median voter.", "page": "p/policy-outcomes-correlate-preferences.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "burlington-vermont-adopted-ranked", "kind": "claim", "text": "Burlington, Vermont adopted ranked-choice voting and then repealed it after the candidate with the most first-choice votes lost, though scholars dispute whether the result was actually unfair under the rules.", "page": "p/burlington-vermont-adopted-ranked.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "evidence-whether-nonpartisan-primaries", "kind": "claim", "text": "The evidence on whether nonpartisan primaries actually moderate candidates is mixed.", "page": "p/evidence-whether-nonpartisan-primaries.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "decade-data-alaska-maine", "kind": "claim", "text": "A decade of data from Alaska and Maine will show that reformed states elect measurably more median-aligned representatives and that their approval-to-reelection gap narrows compared with matched unreformed states.", "page": "p/decade-data-alaska-maine.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "legislators-jurisdictions-small-donor", "kind": "claim", "text": "Legislators in jurisdictions with small-donor matching will track constituent preferences better than legislators in jurisdictions without it.", "page": "p/legislators-jurisdictions-small-donor.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "commission-drawn-maps-will", "kind": "claim", "text": "Commission-drawn maps will keep producing 15 to 20 percent fewer safe seats than maps drawn by legislatures, cycle after cycle.", "page": "p/commission-drawn-maps-will.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "jurisdictions-use-ranked-choice", "kind": "claim", "text": "Jurisdictions that use ranked-choice voting will show persistently lower rates of negative advertising.", "page": "p/jurisdictions-use-ranked-choice.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "reformed-states-will-show", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reformed states will show no movement on any objective criterion after two full election cycles, or repeal waves will spread beyond single incidents like Burlington.", "page": "p/reformed-states-will-show.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "center-squeeze-other-pathological", "kind": "claim", "text": "Center-squeeze or other pathological outcomes will recur in ranked-choice elections at rates that measurably erode public trust in results.", "page": "p/center-squeeze-other-pathological.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "representatives-reformed-states-will", "kind": "claim", "text": "Representatives in reformed states will move toward their district medians no faster than representatives in unreformed states.", "page": "p/representatives-reformed-states-will.html", "belief": "we-support-strengthen-democracy", "draft": false }, { "key": "companies-need-person-s", "kind": "belief", "text": "Companies should need a person's clear permission before collecting their data for advertising.", "page": "p/companies-need-person-s.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "information-about-person-belongs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Information about a person belongs to that person first, and taking it without asking treats people as a resource rather than as customers.", "page": "p/information-about-person-belongs.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-people-do-know", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most people do not know how much is gathered about them or where it goes, so silent collection cannot be called consent in any real sense.", "page": "p/most-people-do-know.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "requiring-permission-before-collecting", "kind": "claim", "text": "Requiring permission before collecting personal data forces companies to explain what they want and why, which by itself makes them collect less than they otherwise would.", "page": "p/requiring-permission-before-collecting.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "advertising-pays-most-free", "kind": "claim", "text": "Advertising pays for most free online services, and when fewer people opt in to data collection for ads, those services either start charging money or disappear.", "page": "p/advertising-pays-most-free.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "permission-screens-quickly-become", "kind": "claim", "text": "Permission screens quickly become a wall of clicks that people wave through without reading, so requiring consent before data collection adds friction without adding understanding.", "page": "p/permission-screens-quickly-become.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "ads-matched-person-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ads matched to a person's interests are less annoying and more useful than random ones, and many people prefer them once they see the difference.", "page": "p/ads-matched-person-s.html", "belief": "companies-need-person-s", "draft": false }, { "key": "law-enforcement-able-read", "kind": "belief", "text": "Law enforcement should be able to read encrypted messages when it has a warrant.", "page": "p/law-enforcement-able-read.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "warrant-already-lets-police", "kind": "claim", "text": "A warrant already lets police search a home or open a safe, and a message on a phone should not be more protected than a letter in a drawer.", "page": "p/warrant-already-lets-police.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-plan-serious", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who plan serious harm use encrypted apps precisely because they know no one can look, and society should not build them a guaranteed hiding place.", "page": "p/people-who-plan-serious.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "letting-police-read-encrypted", "kind": "claim", "text": "Letting police read an encrypted message only after a judge finds there is cause keeps the decision to look with a court rather than with the officers who want to look.", "page": "p/letting-police-read-encrypted.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "there-no-way-build", "kind": "claim", "text": "There is no way to build a way into encrypted messages that only the police can use; any built-in opening can be found and used by criminals and hostile governments.", "page": "p/there-no-way-build.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "warrants-issued-one-country", "kind": "claim", "text": "Warrants are issued in one country, but the same software runs everywhere, so a way in created for one government becomes available to all of them.", "page": "p/warrants-issued-one-country.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "ordinary-people-businesses-journalists", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ordinary people, businesses and journalists rely on encryption for their safety, and weakening it for everyone in order to catch a few makes the whole population less secure.", "page": "p/ordinary-people-businesses-journalists.html", "belief": "law-enforcement-able-read", "draft": false }, { "key": "new-movies-generally-open", "kind": "belief", "text": "New movies should generally open in theaters for a period before they reach streaming services.", "page": "p/new-movies-generally-open.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "theater-run-gives-movie", "kind": "claim", "text": "A theater run gives a movie a single shared moment when people talk about it, which builds interest that a quiet streaming release rarely matches.", "page": "p/theater-run-gives-movie.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "seeing-film-big-screen", "kind": "claim", "text": "Seeing a film on a big screen with a crowd is a different and richer experience, and a period when a new film is only in theaters is the only way to keep that as the default way to see a movie.", "page": "p/seeing-film-big-screen.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "theaters-local-businesses-employ", "kind": "claim", "text": "Theaters are local businesses that employ people and anchor downtowns, and they cannot survive if every film is available at home on the day it opens.", "page": "p/theaters-local-businesses-employ.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "families-rural-viewers-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Families, rural viewers and people with disabilities find theaters costly or hard to reach, and a forced wait before new films reach home screens treats them as second-class audiences.", "page": "p/families-rural-viewers-people.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "piracy-fills-any-gap", "kind": "claim", "text": "Piracy fills any gap between a movie's release and its availability at home, so delays mostly push viewers toward illegal copies.", "page": "p/piracy-fills-any-gap.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "streaming-lets-small-unusual", "kind": "claim", "text": "Streaming lets small and unusual films find their audience without fighting for a limited number of screens, so a theater-first rule protects blockbusters more than it protects film as a whole.", "page": "p/streaming-lets-small-unusual.html", "belief": "new-movies-generally-open", "draft": false }, { "key": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "kind": "belief", "text": "Studios should let viewers choose to watch new movies at home on the same day they open in theaters.", "page": "p/studios-let-viewers-choose.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "viewers-studios-decide-where", "kind": "claim", "text": "Viewers, not studios, should decide where they watch a film they are paying for.", "page": "p/viewers-studios-decide-where.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "tickets-parking-babysitting-make", "kind": "claim", "text": "Tickets, parking and babysitting make a night out expensive, and a home option puts new films within reach of people on tight budgets.", "page": "p/tickets-parking-babysitting-make.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "same-day-home-release", "kind": "claim", "text": "A same-day home release lets a film reach people who live far from any theater, so its audience grows instead of shrinking.", "page": "p/same-day-home-release.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "same-day-home-release-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "A same-day home release cuts theater attendance in the very weeks a film needs it most, and the lost ticket income is not replaced by streaming fees.", "page": "p/same-day-home-release-2.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "movies-watched-home-compete", "kind": "claim", "text": "Movies watched at home compete with phones and interruptions, so filmmakers lose the focused attention their work was made for.", "page": "p/movies-watched-home-compete.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "once-viewers-expect-every", "kind": "claim", "text": "Once viewers expect every film at home on opening day, studios have less reason to spend on the large-scale pictures that only make sense on a big screen.", "page": "p/once-viewers-expect-every.html", "belief": "studios-let-viewers-choose", "draft": false }, { "key": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "kind": "belief", "text": "Cities should generally redesign streets to slow cars down, even when that lengthens drive times.", "page": "p/cities-generally-redesign-streets.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "whether-crash-kills-someone", "kind": "claim", "text": "Whether a crash kills someone depends mostly on speed, so a street built for slower driving saves lives without relying on drivers choosing to behave better.", "page": "p/whether-crash-kills-someone.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "streets-where-cars-move", "kind": "claim", "text": "Streets where cars move slowly are streets where children, old people and cyclists can safely be, which gives everyone a choice besides driving.", "page": "p/streets-where-cars-move.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "redesigning-street-slow-cars", "kind": "claim", "text": "Redesigning a street to slow cars costs each driver a small amount of time on each trip, while the safety gained is shared by every person who uses the street.", "page": "p/redesigning-street-slow-cars.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "longer-trips-cost-workers", "kind": "claim", "text": "Longer trips cost workers, deliveries and emergency vehicles real time every single day, and those costs add up across a whole city.", "page": "p/longer-trips-cost-workers.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "slowing-main-road-pushes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Slowing a main road pushes drivers onto neighborhood side streets, moving the danger to places that were quiet before.", "page": "p/slowing-main-road-pushes.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-places-most-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "In most places most people have no practical alternative to driving, so making driving worse punishes them without giving them a better option.", "page": "p/most-places-most-people.html", "belief": "cities-generally-redesign-streets", "draft": false }, { "key": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "kind": "belief", "text": "Banning the sale of new gasoline cars by a fixed date is generally a mistake.", "page": "p/banning-sale-new-gasoline.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "electric-cars-still-out", "kind": "claim", "text": "Electric cars are still out of reach for many buyers, and people in apartments and rural areas often have nowhere to charge one.", "page": "p/electric-cars-still-out.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "ban-new-gasoline-cars", "kind": "claim", "text": "A ban on new gasoline cars locks in one technology when hybrids, cleaner fuels or something not yet invented might turn out to be a better path.", "page": "p/ban-new-gasoline-cars.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "mandates-get-ahead-what", "kind": "claim", "text": "Mandates that get ahead of what people are ready to buy provoke a political backlash that can set the shift to electric cars back.", "page": "p/mandates-get-ahead-what.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "automakers-charging-companies-only", "kind": "claim", "text": "Automakers and charging companies only invest at full scale when the end date for gasoline car sales is certain, so a firm deadline is what makes the switch to electric cars happen.", "page": "p/automakers-charging-companies-only.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-gasoline-car-sold", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every gasoline car sold today will be on the road for many years, so the cheapest way to cut future emissions is to stop adding new ones.", "page": "p/every-gasoline-car-sold.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "past-safety-emissions-standards", "kind": "claim", "text": "Past safety and emissions standards were routinely called impossible when announced, and the industry usually found a way once the deadline was firm.", "page": "p/past-safety-emissions-standards.html", "belief": "banning-sale-new-gasoline", "draft": false }, { "key": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "kind": "belief", "text": "Long prison sentences generally do little to reduce crime compared with raising the odds of being caught.", "page": "p/long-prison-sentences-generally.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-people-who-commit", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most people who commit crimes do not expect to be caught, so the length of a sentence they never expect to serve does not enter their thinking.", "page": "p/most-people-who-commit.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "young-men-commit-most", "kind": "claim", "text": "Young men commit most crimes and stop on their own as they get older, so years added to the end of a sentence hold people who would have quit anyway.", "page": "p/young-men-commit-most.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-spent-extra-years", "kind": "claim", "text": "Money spent on extra years in prison could instead hire investigators and patrol officers, which raises the chance of being caught and does change behavior.", "page": "p/money-spent-extra-years.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "person-prison-cannot-commit", "kind": "claim", "text": "A person in prison cannot commit crimes against the public, so every added year prevents whatever that person would have done outside.", "page": "p/person-prison-cannot-commit.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "small-number-repeat-offenders", "kind": "claim", "text": "A small number of repeat offenders commit a large share of all serious crime and keep at it well into middle age, so long sentences hold exactly the people who would not have quit on their own.", "page": "p/small-number-repeat-offenders.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "being-caught-only-deters", "kind": "claim", "text": "Being caught only deters people if what follows is serious, so more arrests paired with short sentences give offenders little to fear.", "page": "p/being-caught-only-deters.html", "belief": "long-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "kind": "belief", "text": "Judges should be allowed to keep suspects they consider dangerous in jail before trial, even when those suspects could afford bail.", "page": "p/judges-allowed-keep-suspects.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "someone-arrested-violent-act", "kind": "claim", "text": "Someone arrested for a violent act and released the same day can go after the same victim or witness before the trial ever happens.", "page": "p/someone-arrested-violent-act.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "bail-based-money-frees", "kind": "claim", "text": "Bail based on money frees the wealthy and holds the poor, so a judgment about danger is fairer than a judgment about cash.", "page": "p/bail-based-money-frees.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-confidence-courts-falls", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public confidence in the courts falls when people see a suspect walk out hours after a serious arrest.", "page": "p/public-confidence-courts-falls.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "person-who-has-been", "kind": "claim", "text": "A person who has not been convicted is presumed innocent, and jailing that person is punishment before any trial.", "page": "p/person-who-has-been.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "predicting-who-dangerous-guesswork", "kind": "claim", "text": "Predicting who is dangerous is guesswork, and a judge facing public pressure will err toward holding people who would have caused no harm.", "page": "p/predicting-who-dangerous-guesswork.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "even-few-weeks-jail", "kind": "claim", "text": "Even a few weeks in jail can cost a person their job, housing, and custody of their children, so detention harms whole families whether or not the charge holds up.", "page": "p/even-few-weeks-jail.html", "belief": "judges-allowed-keep-suspects", "draft": false }, { "key": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "kind": "belief", "text": "Governments should put protecting the environment ahead of economic growth when the two conflict.", "page": "p/governments-put-protecting-environment.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "damage-nature-often-cannot", "kind": "claim", "text": "Damage to nature often cannot be undone, while lost growth can be made up later, so the cautious choice is to protect what cannot be replaced.", "page": "p/damage-nature-often-cannot.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "growth-uses-up-resources", "kind": "claim", "text": "Growth that uses up resources is borrowed from future generations who never agreed to the loan.", "page": "p/growth-uses-up-resources.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "markets-reward-growth-but", "kind": "claim", "text": "Markets reward growth but give nobody a reason to pay for clean air, so when growth and clean air collide only a government rule keeps the air clean.", "page": "p/markets-reward-growth-but.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "countries-clean-today-mostly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Countries that are clean today mostly got rich first and then paid for cleanup, so growth is the path to protection rather than its enemy.", "page": "p/countries-clean-today-mostly.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "strict-environmental-limits-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "Strict environmental limits in one country push dirty production to places with weaker rules, so the harm moves instead of shrinking.", "page": "p/strict-environmental-limits-one.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "rules-put-environment-ahead", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rules that put the environment ahead of growth raise prices and cut jobs for the people least able to absorb either.", "page": "p/rules-put-environment-ahead.html", "belief": "governments-put-protecting-environment", "draft": false }, { "key": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "kind": "belief", "text": "Technology tends to solve environmental problems better than restrictions on how people live.", "page": "p/technology-tends-solve-environmental.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "past-resource-scares-tended", "kind": "claim", "text": "Past resource scares tended to end with a new method or a new material, not with rationing, and there is no reason to expect the pattern to stop.", "page": "p/past-resource-scares-tended.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "restrictions-daily-life-unpopular", "kind": "claim", "text": "Restrictions on daily life are unpopular and get rolled back, while a cleaner option that is also cheaper stays adopted for good.", "page": "p/restrictions-daily-life-unpopular.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "rule-freezes-today-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "A rule freezes today's best answer in place, while innovation keeps finding better answers that the rule would have blocked.", "page": "p/rule-freezes-today-s.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "new-technology-arrives-its", "kind": "claim", "text": "New technology arrives on its own schedule while environmental damage is happening now, so waiting for a technical fix is a decision to accept that damage in the meantime.", "page": "p/new-technology-arrives-its.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "new-technology-often-used", "kind": "claim", "text": "New technology is often used to consume more rather than less, so efficiency gains get eaten by growth unless something limits the total.", "page": "p/new-technology-often-used.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "clean-technologies-did-succeed", "kind": "claim", "text": "The clean technologies that did succeed usually appeared because rules and targets made someone pay for them, so the restriction is what produces the invention.", "page": "p/clean-technologies-did-succeed.html", "belief": "technology-tends-solve-environmental", "draft": false }, { "key": "longer-prison-sentences-generally", "kind": "belief", "text": "Longer prison sentences generally make communities safer.", "page": "p/longer-prison-sentences-generally.html", "belief": "longer-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "person-who-prison-cannot", "kind": "claim", "text": "A person who is in prison cannot commit crimes on the street, and every year added is a year the community is 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"p/most-people-age-out.html", "belief": "longer-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "prison-teaches-criminal-skills", "kind": "claim", "text": "Prison teaches criminal skills and cuts jobs and family ties, so people released after long terms often come out more dangerous than they went in.", "page": "p/prison-teaches-criminal-skills.html", "belief": "longer-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-spent-extra-years-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "The money spent on extra years of prison could pay for more officers on the street, and being likely to get caught deters more than the length of the sentence.", "page": "p/money-spent-extra-years-2.html", "belief": "longer-prison-sentences-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "police-departments-spend-more", "kind": "belief", "text": "Police departments should spend more of their effort preventing crime than making arrests.", "page": "p/police-departments-spend-more.html", "belief": 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"police-departments-spend-more", "draft": false }, { "key": "prevention-hard-measure-easy", "kind": "claim", "text": "Prevention is hard to measure and easy to claim, while an arrest is a public act that can be checked, so shifting effort to prevention makes police less accountable.", "page": "p/prevention-hard-measure-easy.html", "belief": "police-departments-spend-more", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-have-already", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who have already been harmed are owed a response now, and putting arrests second means the department serves the person who might be hurt tomorrow ahead of the person who was hurt yesterday.", "page": "p/people-who-have-already.html", "belief": "police-departments-spend-more", "draft": false }, { "key": "surest-form-prevention-certainty", "kind": "claim", "text": "The surest form of prevention is the certainty that offenders get caught, and that certainty is built one arrest at a time.", "page": 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"belief": "heavy-digital-editing-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "what-viewers-respond-finished", "kind": "claim", "text": "What viewers respond to is the finished image on the wall or the screen, and the tools used to reach it matter no more than the brand of brush matters for a painting.", "page": "p/what-viewers-respond-finished.html", "belief": "heavy-digital-editing-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "ordinary-people-trust-photograph", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ordinary people trust a photograph because they assume it shows something that actually happened, and heavy editing quietly spends that trust without telling them.", "page": "p/ordinary-people-trust-photograph.html", "belief": "heavy-digital-editing-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "photograph-s-one-special", "kind": "claim", "text": "A photograph's one special power over painting is its claim to have been there, so an image that no longer makes that claim has given up the thing that made it a photograph.", "page": "p/photograph-s-one-special.html", "belief": "heavy-digital-editing-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-any-part-picture", "kind": "claim", "text": "When any part of a picture can be changed after the camera has done its work, being in the right place at the right moment matters less than skill at software, and a photograph made that way is closer to an illustration than to a record.", "page": "p/when-any-part-picture.html", "belief": "heavy-digital-editing-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "photograph-s-worth-clearly", "kind": "belief", "text": "A photograph's worth clearly rests more on what it truthfully shows than on the photographer's artistry.", "page": "p/photograph-s-worth-clearly.html", "belief": "photograph-s-worth-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "photographs-people-return-across", "kind": "claim", "text": "The photographs people return to across generations are the ones that show something real, from a family's kitchen to a war, and their power 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"draft": false }, { "key": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "kind": "belief", "text": "Adding automation to critical systems tends to create new kinds of failure that are harder to catch than the ones it removes.", "page": "p/adding-automation-critical-systems.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "automation-hides-what-system", "kind": "claim", "text": "Automation hides what the system is doing, so when it fails the operators are surprised and have no time to understand what went wrong.", "page": "p/automation-hides-what-system.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "operators-who-rarely-act", "kind": "claim", "text": "Operators who rarely act lose the skills they need in the moment the machine hands control back to them.", "page": "p/operators-who-rarely-act.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "automated-parts-copied-everywhere", "kind": "claim", "text": "Automated parts are copied everywhere, so one hidden bug can fail in many places at once instead of one crew making one mistake.", "page": "p/automated-parts-copied-everywhere.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "machine-s-possible-failures", "kind": "claim", "text": "A machine's possible failures are written into its rules and can be inspected and tested before it ever runs, while a person's failures come from mood, fatigue and distraction that nobody can inspect in advance, so the new failures are easier to catch, not harder.", "page": "p/machine-s-possible-failures.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "automated-failures-logged-repeatable", "kind": "claim", "text": "Automated failures are logged and repeatable, so once they happen they can be found and fixed for good, while human lapses repeat forever.", "page": "p/automated-failures-logged-repeatable.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "new-failures-automation-creates", "kind": "claim", "text": "The new failures automation creates can be designed against with alarms and backups, and every safety-critical industry has done so.", "page": "p/new-failures-automation-creates.html", "belief": "adding-automation-critical-systems", "draft": false }, { "key": "free-trade-other-countries", "kind": "belief", "text": "Free trade with other countries makes ordinary people in a country better off overall, even when some industries lose.", "page": "p/free-trade-other-countries.html", "belief": "free-trade-other-countries", "draft": false }, { "key": "buying-goods-wherever-made", "kind": "claim", "text": "Buying goods from wherever they are made cheapest lowers prices for everyone, and lower prices raise living standards as surely as higher wages do.", "page": "p/buying-goods-wherever-made.html", "belief": "free-trade-other-countries", "draft": false }, { "key": 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"reference-works-generally-refuse", "kind": "belief", "text": "Reference works should generally refuse to print a quotation whose original source cannot be found.", "page": "p/reference-works-generally-refuse.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "saying-passed-wrong-name", "kind": "claim", "text": "A saying passed on with the wrong name attached rewrites who thought what, and a reference work exists to prevent exactly that.", "page": "p/saying-passed-wrong-name.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "misattributed-quotations-spread-fastest", "kind": "claim", "text": "Misattributed quotations spread fastest once a respected reference repeats them, so the reference is the point where the chain can be broken.", "page": "p/misattributed-quotations-spread-fastest.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "requiring-source-forces-editors", "kind": "claim", "text": "Requiring a source forces editors to check the wording as well, and many well-known quotations turn out to have been reworded along the way.", "page": "p/requiring-source-forces-editors.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-sayings-shaped-public", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many sayings that shaped public life survive only in memory or in secondhand reports, and dropping them makes the reference less useful without making it more honest.", "page": "p/many-sayings-shaped-public.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "quotation-can-clearly-labeled", "kind": "claim", "text": "A quotation can be clearly labeled as attributed rather than confirmed, which gives readers the truth without throwing the entry away.", "page": "p/quotation-can-clearly-labeled.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "insisting-written-original-favors", "kind": "claim", "text": "Insisting on a written original favors people whose words were recorded over those whose words were only spoken, which skews the record toward the already powerful.", "page": "p/insisting-written-original-favors.html", "belief": "reference-works-generally-refuse", "draft": false }, { "key": "banks-too-big-fail", "kind": "belief", "text": "Banks that are too big to fail should be broken up.", "page": "p/banks-too-big-fail.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-bank-knows-government", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a bank knows the government cannot let it fail, it can take bigger risks with other people's money and keep the winnings while taxpayers cover the losses.", "page": "p/when-bank-knows-government.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "smaller-banks-can-fail", "kind": "claim", "text": "Smaller banks can fail without dragging down the whole economy, which lets the market punish bad lending the way it should.", "page": "p/smaller-banks-can-fail.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "handful-giant-banks-holds", "kind": "claim", "text": "A handful of giant banks holds enormous sway over lawmakers and regulators, and breaking them up spreads that power out.", "page": "p/handful-giant-banks-holds.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "large-banks-can-fund", "kind": "claim", "text": "Large banks can fund large projects and serve customers across the world in ways that a collection of small banks cannot match.", "page": "p/large-banks-can-fund.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-small-banks-failing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many small banks failing at the same time can cause a crisis just as easily as one big bank failing, so size is not the real problem.", "page": "p/many-small-banks-failing.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "requiring-big-banks-hold", "kind": "claim", "text": "Requiring big banks to hold more of their own capital and to keep plans for an orderly shutdown addresses the danger of a taxpayer bailout directly, without the disruption of forcing banks apart.", "page": "p/requiring-big-banks-hold.html", "belief": "banks-too-big-fail", "draft": false }, { "key": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "kind": "belief", "text": "Rules that bar ordinary people from buying investments that are open to the wealthy do more harm than good.", "page": "p/rules-bar-ordinary-people.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "restricting-best-early-stage", "kind": "claim", "text": "Restricting the best early-stage investments to the already wealthy keeps the biggest gains in the hands of people who are already rich.", "page": "p/restricting-best-early-stage.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "adults-trusted-take-mortgages", "kind": "claim", "text": "Adults are trusted to take on mortgages, start businesses and gamble at casinos, so it is inconsistent to say they cannot judge an investment.", "page": "p/adults-trusted-take-mortgages.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "rules-keep-ordinary-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rules that keep ordinary people out of regulated investments push them toward unregulated corners of the market where they get less protection, not more.", "page": "p/rules-keep-ordinary-people.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "complex-investments-designed-professionals", "kind": "claim", "text": "Complex investments are designed by professionals who understand them far better than the buyer, and that gap is exactly where people get fleeced.", "page": "p/complex-investments-designed-professionals.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-ordinary-savers-lose", "kind": "claim", "text": "When ordinary savers lose their retirement money, the cost falls on public programs and families, not just on the person who took the risk.", "page": "p/when-ordinary-savers-lose.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "sellers-risky-products-have", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sellers of risky products have every incentive to push them hard, and a rule about who may buy is the simplest way to blunt that pressure.", "page": "p/sellers-risky-products-have.html", "belief": "rules-bar-ordinary-people", "draft": false }, { "key": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "kind": "belief", "text": "Companies should be banned from putting forced arbitration clauses in consumer contracts.", "page": "p/companies-banned-putting-forced.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "nobody-reads-negotiates-fine", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nobody reads or negotiates the fine print on a phone plan or a bank account, so a forced arbitration clause buried there is imposed rather than agreed to.", "page": "p/nobody-reads-negotiates-fine.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "arbitration-private-so-company", "kind": "claim", "text": "Arbitration is private, so a company that cheats many customers in the same way can settle each one quietly and never be exposed.", "page": "p/arbitration-private-so-company.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "company-picks-pays-arbitration", "kind": "claim", "text": "The company picks and pays the arbitration service and is a repeat customer, while the consumer appears once, and that tilts the outcome.", "page": "p/company-picks-pays-arbitration.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "court-slow-expensive-small", "kind": "claim", "text": "Court is slow and expensive, and for a small claim arbitration is often the only route a consumer can actually afford to use.", "page": "p/court-slow-expensive-small.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-arbitration-companies-face", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without arbitration, companies face class action suits that mostly pay lawyers while each customer receives a coupon.", "page": "p/without-arbitration-companies-face.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "forcing-disputes-into-court", "kind": "claim", "text": "Forcing disputes into court instead of arbitration raises companies' legal costs, which get built into prices so every customer pays for the few who sue.", "page": "p/forcing-disputes-into-court.html", "belief": "companies-banned-putting-forced", "draft": false }, { "key": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "kind": "belief", "text": "Warning labels and disclosure rules do little to change how people buy and add cost without much benefit.", "page": "p/warning-labels-disclosure-rules.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-every-product-carries", "kind": "claim", "text": "When every product carries a warning, people stop reading any of them, so the labels cancel each other out.", "page": "p/when-every-product-carries.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "long-disclosure-documents-written", "kind": "claim", "text": "Long disclosure documents are written by lawyers to protect the company, not to inform the buyer, and no ordinary person reads them.", "page": "p/long-disclosure-documents-written.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "disclosure-lets-regulators-claim", "kind": "claim", "text": "Disclosure lets regulators claim they acted while leaving the harmful product on the shelf, which crowds out rules that would actually work.", "page": "p/disclosure-lets-regulators-claim.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "simple-well-designed-labels", "kind": "claim", "text": "Simple, well-designed labels do change behavior, and the failure of bad labels is a reason to design better ones rather than to abandon them.", "page": "p/simple-well-designed-labels.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "printing-label-posting-fact", "kind": "claim", "text": "Printing a label or posting a fact sheet costs a company almost nothing next to the harm done when people buy a product without knowing what is in it, so disclosure rules cost far less than they save.", "page": "p/printing-label-posting-fact.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "requiring-companies-state-facts", "kind": "claim", "text": "Requiring companies to state facts plainly changes what they are willing to sell, because nobody wants to print an ugly truth on their own package.", "page": "p/requiring-companies-state-facts.html", "belief": "warning-labels-disclosure-rules", "draft": false }, { "key": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "kind": "belief", "text": "Training AI on copyrighted work without permission should be against the law.", "page": "p/training-ai-copyrighted-work.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "writers-artists-musicians-made", "kind": "claim", "text": "Writers, artists and musicians made the work that AI systems learn from, and using it to build a product that competes with them, without asking or paying, is a form of taking.", "page": "p/writers-artists-musicians-made.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "any-other-business-wanted", "kind": "claim", "text": "Any other business that wanted to use a book or a song commercially would need a license, and AI companies should not get an exemption because they use a great deal at once.", "page": "p/any-other-business-wanted.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "permission-requirement-creates-market", "kind": "claim", "text": "A permission requirement creates a market where creators can be paid, which keeps people making the new work that future AI systems will need.", "page": "p/permission-requirement-creates-market.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "learning-what-others-made", "kind": "claim", "text": "Learning from what others made is how every human artist and writer has ever worked, and reading a book to learn from it has never required permission.", "page": "p/learning-what-others-made.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "ai-models-built-learn", "kind": "claim", "text": "AI models are built to learn general patterns rather than keep copies of the works they train on, and the rare case where a model repeats a passage is a flaw to fix, so treating pattern learning itself as copying stretches copyright into control over ideas.", "page": "p/ai-models-built-learn.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "requiring-license-every-item", "kind": "claim", "text": "Requiring a license for every item in a training set would make useful AI possible only for the few companies rich enough to pay, and would stall research everywhere else.", "page": "p/requiring-license-every-item.html", "belief": "training-ai-copyrighted-work", "draft": false }, { "key": "governments-hold-back-spread", "kind": "belief", "text": "Governments should not hold back the spread of AI in workplaces in order to protect existing jobs.", "page": "p/governments-hold-back-spread.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-major-technology-tractor", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every major technology, from the tractor to the spreadsheet, was predicted to cause mass joblessness, and each time new kinds of work appeared instead, so a government that protects today's jobs is protecting jobs that would have changed anyway.", "page": "p/every-major-technology-tractor.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-jobs-bundles-many", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most jobs are bundles of many tasks, and letting AI take over some of those tasks tends to change a job rather than end it, so there is far less to protect than the fear suggests.", "page": "p/most-jobs-bundles-many.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "holding-back-ai-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "Holding back AI in one country does not stop it anywhere else; the new jobs built around the tools simply grow abroad, and the protected jobs still disappear when cheaper foreign products arrive.", "page": "p/holding-back-ai-one.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "past-machines-replaced-muscle", "kind": "claim", "text": "Past machines replaced muscle and left the thinking to people; a machine that can think is a different kind of thing, and a government that waits to see whether the old pattern holds risks finding out too late to help anyone.", "page": "p/past-machines-replaced-muscle.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "even-when-new-jobs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Even when new jobs eventually appear, the people who lose the old ones are rarely the people who get the new ones, and slowing the change gives those workers time to retrain or retire before their livelihood is gone.", "page": "p/even-when-new-jobs.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "spread-ai-into-workplaces", "kind": "claim", "text": "The spread of AI into workplaces is arriving faster than earlier shifts did, and a pace set by companies racing one another leaves schools, workers and towns no time to adjust unless government slows it down.", "page": "p/spread-ai-into-workplaces.html", "belief": "governments-hold-back-spread", "draft": false }, { "key": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "kind": "belief", "text": "Governments should generally provide limited public funding to local newspapers so that local government keeps getting covered.", "page": "p/governments-generally-provide-limited.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-town-loses-its", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a town loses its paper, almost nobody attends council or school board meetings anymore, so local spending, contracts, and hiring go unwatched.", "page": "p/when-town-loses-its.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "newspapers-did-lose-readers", "kind": "claim", "text": "Newspapers did not lose readers so much as they lost advertisers, whose money moved to online platforms, so public money would replace lost revenue rather than reward bad reporting.", "page": "p/newspapers-did-lose-readers.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "societies-already-fund-libraries", "kind": "claim", "text": "Societies already fund libraries, public schools, and courts because markets alone underprovide them, and local reporting belongs in that same category.", "page": "p/societies-already-fund-libraries.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "newspaper-depends-government-money", "kind": "claim", "text": "A newspaper that depends on government money cannot be trusted to cover that government as hard as it should, and readers will assume it does not.", "page": "p/newspaper-depends-government-money.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-follow-readers-if", "kind": "claim", "text": "Money should follow readers, and if not enough readers will pay for a paper, that shows it no longer meets a need people actually have.", "page": "p/money-follow-readers-if.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-funding-programs-news", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public funding programs for news tend to be captured by large chains with lobbyists, so the small local outlets those programs are meant to save get the least of the money.", "page": "p/public-funding-programs-news.html", "belief": "governments-generally-provide-limited", "draft": false }, { "key": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "kind": "belief", "text": "A newspaper that can no longer pay its own way should generally be allowed to close rather than be kept alive with public money or special rules.", "page": "p/newspaper-can-no-longer.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "readers-who-stop-paying", "kind": "claim", "text": "Readers who stop paying for a paper are telling it something, and shielding it from that message keeps alive a product that no longer serves the people it claims to serve.", "page": "p/readers-who-stop-paying.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-talent-tied-up", "kind": "claim", "text": "Money and talent tied up in a failing paper cannot flow to the newsletters, local news sites, and community radio that are already finding new ways to reach readers.", "page": "p/money-talent-tied-up.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "once-officials-decide-which", "kind": "claim", "text": "Once officials decide which papers get rescued, they are picking which voices survive, and a paper that owes its existence to that choice cannot report on those officials freely.", "page": "p/once-officials-decide-which.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "town-paper-like-shoe", "kind": "claim", "text": "A town paper is not like a shoe store; when it closes, nothing else shows up to sit through zoning hearings and read the budget, so the loss lands on everyone, including people who never bought a copy.", "page": "p/town-paper-like-shoe.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "advertisers-left-online-platforms", "kind": "claim", "text": "Advertisers left for online platforms while readers still wanted local news, so letting a local paper die punishes the reporting for a problem in how it was paid for.", "page": "p/advertisers-left-online-platforms.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-newsroom-closes-its", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a newsroom closes, its archive, its trained reporters, and its knowledge of the town scatter and do not come back when times improve, so a rescue can save something that is otherwise lost for good.", "page": "p/when-newsroom-closes-its.html", "belief": "newspaper-can-no-longer", "draft": false }, { "key": "cities-spend-public-money", "kind": "belief", "text": "Cities that spend public money on stadiums for professional teams generally get back less than they put in.", "page": "p/cities-spend-public-money.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-money-fans-spend", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most of the money fans spend at a stadium is money they would otherwise have spent at local restaurants, theaters and shops, so the city gains little that is new.", "page": "p/most-money-fans-spend.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "team-owners-keep-most", "kind": "claim", "text": "Team owners keep most of the ticket, parking and concession income through favorable leases, while the public carries the construction debt for decades.", "page": "p/team-owners-keep-most.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "owners-professional-teams-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "Owners of professional teams can threaten to move the team to another city, which forces cities to bid against each other and hand over far more than the team is worth to them.", "page": "p/owners-professional-teams-can.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "stadium-can-anchor-development", "kind": "claim", "text": "A stadium can anchor development in a neglected district, drawing hotels, housing and restaurants that would not have come on their own.", "page": "p/stadium-can-anchor-development.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "civic-pride-shared-identity", "kind": "claim", "text": "The civic pride and shared identity a home team gives a city are a real return on public stadium spending, and comparisons that count only dollars leave that return out.", "page": "p/civic-pride-shared-identity.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "construction-jobs-game-day", "kind": "claim", "text": "The construction jobs, game-day jobs and out-of-town visitor spending a new stadium brings can return as much to a city as the public money it put into the stadium.", "page": "p/construction-jobs-game-day.html", "belief": "cities-spend-public-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "kind": "belief", "text": "Youth leagues should not offer tackle football to children below high school age.", "page": "p/youth-leagues-offer-tackle.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "child-s-brain-still", "kind": "claim", "text": "A child's brain is still developing, and the damage from repeated head hits in tackle football builds up over years, so the earliest hits are the costliest ones.", "page": "p/child-s-brain-still.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "young-child-cannot-weigh", "kind": "claim", "text": "A young child cannot weigh the risk of brain damage from tackle football, because that harm will not show up until middle age, so adults who will never bear it are making the choice for the child.", "page": "p/young-child-cannot-weigh.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "flag-football-teaches-same", "kind": "claim", "text": "Flag football teaches the same footwork, routes and teamwork as tackle football without the collisions, so a child who waits until high school to start tackling misses nothing essential about the sport.", "page": "p/flag-football-teaches-same.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "parents-already-weigh-serious", "kind": "claim", "text": "Parents already weigh serious injury risks when they let children ride bikes, ski or play soccer, and tackle football belongs in that same set of family decisions rather than under a league-wide rule.", "page": "p/parents-already-weigh-serious.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "learning-tackle-while-bodies", "kind": "claim", "text": "Learning to tackle while bodies are small and slow teaches safe technique before players grow big enough to do real damage to each other.", "page": "p/learning-tackle-while-bodies.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-children-who-want", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many children who want to play tackle football drop out of the sport when youth leagues offer only flag football, and the fitness and discipline they lose while waiting for high school are real costs.", "page": "p/many-children-who-want.html", "belief": "youth-leagues-offer-tackle", "draft": false }, { "key": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "kind": "belief", "text": "Hunting is generally good for wildlife conservation.", "page": "p/hunting-generally-good-wildlife.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "license-fees-taxes-hunting", "kind": "claim", "text": "License fees and taxes on hunting gear pay for much of the habitat protection and wildlife management that non-hunters enjoy for free.", "page": "p/license-fees-taxes-hunting.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "where-wolves-other-natural", "kind": "claim", "text": "Where wolves and other natural predators are gone, hunters keep deer and similar animals from overrunning forests and starving in bad winters.", "page": "p/where-wolves-other-natural.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-hunt-spend", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who hunt spend their lives outdoors and develop a personal interest in keeping land wild and undeveloped.", "page": "p/people-who-hunt-spend.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "managing-land-please-hunters", "kind": "claim", "text": "Managing land to please hunters keeps game animals artificially plentiful and shapes whole landscapes around a few species at the expense of the rest.", "page": "p/managing-land-please-hunters.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "because-hunters-want-plentiful", "kind": "claim", "text": "Because hunters want plentiful game, wildlife agencies that depend on them are pushed to shoot, trap and poison the wolves, cougars and coyotes that compete for it, which blocks the return of the natural predators a healthy ecosystem needs.", "page": "p/because-hunters-want-plentiful.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "trophy-hunting-takes-biggest", "kind": "claim", "text": "Trophy hunting takes the biggest and healthiest animals out of a population, which is the opposite of what natural selection would do.", "page": "p/trophy-hunting-takes-biggest.html", "belief": "hunting-generally-good-wildlife", "draft": false }, { "key": "popular-national-parks-generally", "kind": "belief", "text": "Popular national parks should generally require timed-entry reservations.", "page": "p/popular-national-parks-generally.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "capping-how-many-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Capping how many people are inside a popular national park at once keeps crowds from trampling trails, eroding fragile ground and driving wildlife away from its feeding and nesting areas.", "page": "p/capping-how-many-people.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "timed-entry-reservations-national", "kind": "claim", "text": "Timed-entry reservations at national parks spread visitors across hours and days, so each person who enters gets the quiet and space they came for.", "page": "p/timed-entry-reservations-national.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "timed-entry-reservations-national-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Timed-entry reservations at national parks replace hours of idling in car lines at the entrance with a set arrival time, so visitors lose less of their vacation to waiting.", "page": "p/timed-entry-reservations-national-2.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "national-park-reservation-systems", "kind": "claim", "text": "National park reservation systems favor people with flexible schedules, fast internet and the habit of planning months ahead, and shut out working families and spontaneous travelers.", "page": "p/national-park-reservation-systems.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "national-parks-public-land", "kind": "claim", "text": "National parks are public land that belongs to every citizen, and a reservation system that turns some of them away at the entrance undermines the promise on which the parks were built.", "page": "p/national-parks-public-land.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "crowded-national-parks-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "Crowded national parks can add shuttles, parking and trails to handle more people rather than treating the number of visitors as the problem.", "page": "p/crowded-national-parks-can.html", "belief": "popular-national-parks-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-people-staying-able", "kind": "belief", "text": "For most people, staying able-bodied into old age requires planned strength training that gets harder over time, because everyday activity alone is unlikely to preserve the muscle and bone that keep people independent.", "page": "p/most-people-staying-able.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "muscle-bone-grow-stronger", "kind": "claim", "text": "Muscle and bone grow stronger mainly when they face loads heavier than they are used to, so carrying groceries or climbing stairs can slow the loss at best but does little to build back what age takes away.", "page": "p/muscle-bone-grow-stronger.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "what-ends-independence-usually", "kind": "claim", "text": "What ends independence is usually a fall or the inability to get up from a chair, and both come down to leg strength and balance, which improve most reliably when someone works against resistance on purpose.", "page": "p/what-ends-independence-usually.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "effort-has-measured-kept", "kind": "claim", "text": "Effort has to be measured to be kept up; without a plan that tracks what was lifted, exertion tends to drift down to whatever feels comfortable, which is the level that lets decline continue.", "page": "p/effort-has-measured-kept.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-physically-demanding-jobs", "kind": "claim", "text": "People in physically demanding jobs and in communities where everyone walks and carries often stay strong and mobile into very old age without ever following a program, which shows that a life full of physical work can be enough.", "page": "p/people-physically-demanding-jobs.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "body-keeps-what-uses", "kind": "claim", "text": "The body keeps what it uses, so a person who keeps gardening, carrying, climbing stairs and getting up off the floor keeps the strength for those exact tasks, and those are the tasks that matter.", "page": "p/body-keeps-what-uses.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "demanding-program-quit-far", "kind": "claim", "text": "A demanding program is quit far more often than it is kept, and strength that lasts a season and then stops does less for old age than modest activity kept up for a lifetime.", "page": "p/demanding-program-quit-far.html", "belief": "most-people-staying-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "kind": "belief", "text": "For most people, ordinary daily activity such as walking delivers most of the health benefit of exercise, and formal workouts add little.", "page": "p/most-people-ordinary-daily.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "biggest-jump-health-comes", "kind": "claim", "text": "The biggest jump in health comes from going from doing nothing to doing something; the gain from doing more after that is much smaller.", "page": "p/biggest-jump-health-comes.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-build-movement", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who build movement into their day, by walking to errands and taking stairs, keep it up for decades, while gym plans are usually abandoned.", "page": "p/people-who-build-movement.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "hard-training-carries-injury", "kind": "claim", "text": "Hard training carries injury risk and time cost that a brisk walk does not, and for most people those costs eat much of the benefit.", "page": "p/hard-training-carries-injury.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "walking-can-slow-some", "kind": "claim", "text": "Walking can slow some loss of leg muscle, but it does little to build muscle back or to strengthen bone, and losing both is what leaves older people frail.", "page": "p/walking-can-slow-some.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "benefits-fitness-keep-growing", "kind": "claim", "text": "The benefits of fitness keep growing with more effort; people in the best shape live longer and healthier than the merely active.", "page": "p/benefits-fitness-keep-growing.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "walking-can-real-workout", "kind": "claim", "text": "Walking can be a real workout for the heart and lungs of someone who is out of shape, but as fitness improves an ordinary pace stops being hard, so the heart benefit levels off unless the effort goes up.", "page": "p/walking-can-real-workout.html", "belief": "most-people-ordinary-daily", "draft": false }, { "key": "doctors-generally-follow-standardized", "kind": "belief", "text": "Doctors should generally follow standardized treatment guidelines rather than rely on their own judgment.", "page": "p/doctors-generally-follow-standardized.html", "belief": 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"draft": false }, { "key": "guidelines-written-average-patient", "kind": "claim", "text": "Guidelines are written for the average patient, and the person in the exam room is never average; they have other conditions, other medicines, and their own goals.", "page": "p/guidelines-written-average-patient.html", "belief": "doctors-generally-follow-standardized", "draft": false }, { "key": "guideline-snapshot-evidence-when", "kind": "claim", "text": "A guideline is a snapshot of the evidence when it was written and can lag years behind what good doctors already know.", "page": "p/guideline-snapshot-evidence-when.html", "belief": "doctors-generally-follow-standardized", "draft": false }, { "key": "following-treatment-guideline-step", "kind": "claim", "text": "Following a treatment guideline step by step turns a physician into a technician and dulls the judgment needed for the cases the guideline did not anticipate.", "page": "p/following-treatment-guideline-step.html", "belief": 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"patients-serious-illness-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "allowing-informed-patients-try", "kind": "claim", "text": "Allowing informed patients to try new treatments produces experience that speeds up learning about what works.", "page": "p/allowing-informed-patients-try.html", "belief": "patients-serious-illness-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "desperate-people-easiest-sell", "kind": "claim", "text": "Desperate people are the easiest to sell to, and freedom to try unproven treatments is in practice freedom for sellers to profit from false hope.", "page": "p/desperate-people-easiest-sell.html", "belief": "patients-serious-illness-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "unproven-treatments-can-shorten", "kind": "claim", "text": "Unproven treatments can shorten life or add suffering, and a patient who spends savings and final months on one loses the chance at proven care and comfort.", "page": "p/unproven-treatments-can-shorten.html", "belief": "patients-serious-illness-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-patients-can-get", "kind": "claim", "text": "If patients can get an experimental drug without joining a trial, fewer will join trials, and the answer about whether it works arrives later for everyone.", "page": "p/if-patients-can-get.html", "belief": "patients-serious-illness-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "highest-earning-households-pay", "kind": "belief", "text": "The highest-earning households should pay a larger share of their income in taxes than they do today.", "page": "p/highest-earning-households-pay.html", "belief": "highest-earning-households-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "dollar-taken-very-rich", "kind": "claim", "text": "A dollar taken from a very rich household changes nothing about how they live, while the same dollar taken from a working family means a bill goes unpaid.", "page": "p/dollar-taken-very-rich.html", "belief": "highest-earning-households-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": 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"claim", "text": "High rates push wealthy people to move away, hide income, or shift it into forms that are taxed less, so the tax raises far less money than promised.", "page": "p/high-rates-push-wealthy.html", "belief": "highest-earning-households-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "rich-also-people-most", "kind": "claim", "text": "The rich are also the people most able to start and grow businesses, and taking more from them means fewer jobs for everyone else.", "page": "p/rich-also-people-most.html", "belief": "highest-earning-households-pay", "draft": false }, { "key": "sales-taxes-everyday-goods", "kind": "belief", "text": "Sales taxes on everyday goods should be lower than they are today.", "page": "p/sales-taxes-everyday-goods.html", "belief": "sales-taxes-everyday-goods", "draft": false }, { "key": "poor-families-spend-nearly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Poor families spend nearly all their income, so a tax on spending taxes nearly everything they have, while rich families save 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"sales-taxes-everyday-goods", "draft": false }, { "key": "sales-tax-hard-avoid", "kind": "claim", "text": "A sales tax is hard to avoid and cheap to collect, so it raises money reliably without the loopholes that plague income taxes.", "page": "p/sales-tax-hard-avoid.html", "belief": "sales-taxes-everyday-goods", "draft": false }, { "key": "cutting-sales-taxes-means", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cutting sales taxes means either cutting the local services they fund (schools, roads, police) or raising some other tax, and there is no free option.", "page": "p/cutting-sales-taxes-means.html", "belief": "sales-taxes-everyday-goods", "draft": false }, { "key": "scotland-better-off-independent", "kind": "belief", "text": "Scotland would be better off as an independent country.", "page": "p/scotland-better-off-independent.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "scotland-has-repeatedly-been", "kind": "claim", "text": "Scotland has repeatedly been governed by UK parties that most Scottish voters did not support, so decisions that shape Scottish life can go against Scotland's clear preference.", "page": "p/scotland-has-repeatedly-been.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "scottish-government-answering-only", "kind": "claim", "text": "A Scottish government answering only to Scottish voters would be fully accountable for results, because it could no longer blame a distant parliament for choices it did not make.", "page": "p/scottish-government-answering-only.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "control-over-its-own", "kind": "claim", "text": "Control over its own energy resources, immigration rules, and trade relationships would let Scotland shape its economy around its own strengths.", "page": "p/control-over-its-own.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "independence-put-new-national", "kind": "claim", "text": "Independence would put a new national border between Scotland and England, its largest trading partner, and could disrupt the trade that many Scottish businesses depend on.", "page": "p/independence-put-new-national.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "independent-scotland-have-smaller", "kind": "claim", "text": "An independent Scotland would have a smaller tax base carrying services now funded from a shared United Kingdom pool, which means cuts or higher taxes.", "page": "p/independent-scotland-have-smaller.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "leaving-united-kingdom-mean", "kind": "claim", "text": "Leaving the United Kingdom would mean Scotland rebuilding shared institutions, from pensions to defense to broadcasting, at great cost for uncertain gain.", "page": "p/leaving-united-kingdom-mean.html", "belief": "scotland-better-off-independent", "draft": false }, { "key": "seven-states-share-colorado", "kind": "belief", "text": "The seven states that share the Colorado River should let the federal government decide how to divide its shrinking water supply rather than try to negotiate a deal among themselves.", "page": "p/seven-states-share-colorado.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "each-state-shares-colorado", "kind": "claim", "text": "Each state that shares the Colorado River gains by holding out while the others give up water, so only an authority above all of them can make every state accept its fair share of the cuts.", "page": "p/each-state-shares-colorado.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "tribal-nations-mexico-river", "kind": "claim", "text": "Tribal nations, Mexico, and the river's wildlife all depend on the Colorado River but have no vote in a deal struck among states, and a federal decision can weigh their claims too.", "page": "p/tribal-nations-mexico-river.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "colorado-river-supplies-food", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Colorado River supplies food and power that people across the whole country rely on, so how it is divided is a national question, not only a matter for the states along its banks.", "page": "p/colorado-river-supplies-food.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-colorado-river-states", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials in the Colorado River states know their own farms, cities, and water rights far better than a distant federal agency, so a division decreed from the nation's capital is likely to get the details wrong.", "page": "p/officials-colorado-river-states.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-division-colorado-river", "kind": "claim", "text": "A federal division of Colorado River water would be fought in court for years, and the river's users cannot wait that long for rules they can plan around.", "page": "p/federal-division-colorado-river.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-colorado-river-states", "kind": "claim", "text": "When the Colorado River states write their own deal, water users can trade and share water among themselves, such as cities paying farmers to leave fields dry in drought years, which a top-down federal formula would make harder.", "page": "p/when-colorado-river-states.html", "belief": "seven-states-share-colorado", "draft": false }, { "key": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "kind": "belief", "text": "Charging drivers a fee to enter the most crowded part of Manhattan is the right policy.", "page": "p/charging-drivers-fee-enter.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "streets-central-manhattan-so", "kind": "claim", "text": "Streets in central Manhattan are so jammed that buses, deliveries, and ambulances crawl, and a fee for driving into them is the most direct way to cut that traffic without banning anyone.", "page": "p/streets-central-manhattan-so.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-fee-driving-into", "kind": "claim", "text": "Money from a fee for driving into central Manhattan goes to the subway and bus system, so people who choose to drive help pay for the alternative that keeps everyone else moving.", "page": "p/money-fee-driving-into.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "fewer-cars-entering-central", "kind": "claim", "text": "Fewer cars entering central Manhattan mean cleaner air, less noise, and safer crossings in the neighborhoods that have suffered the most from through traffic.", "page": "p/fewer-cars-entering-central.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "fee-driving-into-central", "kind": "claim", "text": "A fee for driving into central Manhattan falls hardest on tradespeople, night-shift workers, and people from areas with poor transit who cannot simply switch to the train.", "page": "p/fee-driving-into-central.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "drivers-who-want-avoid", "kind": "claim", "text": "Drivers who want to avoid a fee for entering central Manhattan will park and idle in the neighborhoods just outside the charging zone, moving the traffic and pollution rather than removing it.", "page": "p/drivers-who-want-avoid.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "shops-restaurants-theaters-central", "kind": "claim", "text": "Shops, restaurants, and theaters in central Manhattan lose customers from the suburbs when driving in costs more, which hurts the owners and workers who depend on those visitors.", "page": "p/shops-restaurants-theaters-central.html", "belief": "charging-drivers-fee-enter", "draft": false }, { "key": "houston-right-go-without", "kind": "belief", "text": "Houston is right to go without traditional citywide zoning.", "page": "p/houston-right-go-without.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "housing-houston-costs-far", "kind": "claim", "text": "Housing in Houston costs far less than in other big cities of similar size, and a main reason is that builders can put up homes where people want them without years of hearings.", "page": "p/housing-houston-costs-far.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "neighborhoods-houston-can-change", "kind": "claim", "text": "Neighborhoods in Houston can change as the city changes, with shops, apartments, and houses mixing in ways that strictly zoned cities forbid.", "page": "p/neighborhoods-houston-can-change.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-citywide-zoning-houston", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without citywide zoning, Houston officials have no rezoning decisions to hand out, which removes a common source of political favors, lobbying, and drawn-out neighborhood fights over each new project.", "page": "p/without-citywide-zoning-houston.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-zoning-steer-building", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without zoning to steer building away from low, flood-prone land around Houston, developers have paved areas that once soaked up rain, and everyone pays for the flooding that follows, not just the builders.", "page": "p/without-zoning-steer-building.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-citywide-plan-where", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without a citywide plan for where homes, offices, and industry will go, Houston struggles to put roads, drainage, and transit where growth is heading, so taxpayers end up paying to catch up after the fact.", "page": "p/without-citywide-plan-where.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "houston-does-actually-lack", "kind": "claim", "text": "Houston does not actually lack land-use rules; it relies on private deed restrictions that protect wealthier neighborhoods while leaving poorer ones exposed to whatever gets built next door.", "page": "p/houston-does-actually-lack.html", "belief": "houston-right-go-without", "draft": false }, { "key": "person-s-choices-matter", "kind": "belief", "text": "A person's choices matter more than their circumstances in how their life turns out.", "page": "p/person-s-choices-matter.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "siblings-raised-same-home", "kind": "claim", "text": "Siblings raised in the same home by the same parents often end up in very different places because they made different decisions about school, work, money, and friends, which shows that choices do much of the deciding.", "page": "p/siblings-raised-same-home.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-receive-sudden", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who receive a sudden windfall or suffer a sudden setback tend to drift back toward wherever their own habits were already taking them, so a change in circumstance changes the scenery but not the direction.", "page": "p/people-who-receive-sudden.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "small-chosen-habits-like", "kind": "claim", "text": "Small chosen habits, like showing up on time and finishing what you start, compound over years into most of the gap between people who thrive and people who do not.", "page": "p/small-chosen-habits-like.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "circumstances-matter-most-such", "kind": "claim", "text": "The circumstances that matter most, such as where you were born, who raised you, and which school you attended, are settled before a person is old enough to choose anything.", "page": "p/circumstances-matter-most-such.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "ability-make-good-choices", "kind": "claim", "text": "The ability to make good choices is itself shaped by upbringing, stress, and example, so crediting the choice is crediting the circumstance in disguise.", "page": "p/ability-make-good-choices.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "same-mistake-like-dropping", "kind": "claim", "text": "The same mistake, like dropping out of school or taking on too much debt, is a short stumble for someone with a family safety net and a lasting disaster for someone without one, so how life turns out tracks the safety net more than the choice.", "page": "p/same-mistake-like-dropping.html", "belief": "person-s-choices-matter", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-people-s-character", "kind": "belief", "text": "Most people's character is set by their upbringing and changes little in adulthood.", "page": "p/most-people-s-character.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "habits-instincts-laid-down", "kind": "claim", "text": "Habits and instincts laid down in childhood are the hardest to unlearn because they were formed before anyone could question them.", "page": "p/habits-instincts-laid-down.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "real-change-adult-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Real change in an adult's character is rare and usually follows a major shock, and even then the core of the person, such as their temper and their outlook, tends to return once life settles down.", "page": "p/real-change-adult-s.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-choose-friends-jobs", "kind": "claim", "text": "People choose friends, jobs, and places that confirm who they already are, so adult life mostly reinforces the character they arrived with.", "page": "p/people-choose-friends-jobs.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-change-jobs-faiths", "kind": "claim", "text": "People change jobs, faiths, politics, and partners across a lifetime, and their character moves with those changes in ways their parents would not recognize.", "page": "p/people-change-jobs-faiths.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "adults-keep-learning-new", "kind": "claim", "text": "Adults keep learning new skills and dropping old fears, which shows the same capacity for change extends to temperament and values.", "page": "p/adults-keep-learning-new.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "traits-make-up-character", "kind": "claim", "text": "The traits that make up character, such as how careful, calm, and considerate a person is, keep shifting through the adult decades, and most people grow steadier and more patient with age rather than staying as they were at twenty.", "page": "p/traits-make-up-character.html", "belief": "most-people-s-character", "draft": false }, { "key": "communities-generally-better-off", "kind": "belief", "text": "Communities are generally better off when most people belong to a religious congregation.", "page": "p/communities-generally-better-off.html", "belief": "communities-generally-better-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "congregation-gives-people-regular", "kind": "claim", "text": "A congregation gives people a regular reason to gather with neighbors across age, income, and background, which few other institutions still do.", "page": "p/congregation-gives-people-regular.html", "belief": "communities-generally-better-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "congregations-carry-large-share", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congregations carry a large share of the volunteer work, food drives, and care for the sick and grieving that towns quietly depend on.", "page": "p/congregations-carry-large-share.html", "belief": "communities-generally-better-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "congregation-gives-neighbors-shared", "kind": "claim", "text": "A congregation gives neighbors a shared moral language that makes it easier to raise children, settle disputes, and trust one another without a contract.", "page": "p/congregation-gives-neighbors-shared.html", "belief": "communities-generally-better-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "towns-where-most-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Towns where most people belong to secular clubs, unions, and civic groups do just as well on trust and mutual help, so a town is no better off for having most people in congregations instead.", "page": "p/towns-where-most-people.html", "belief": "communities-generally-better-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "congregations-tend-draw-line", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congregations tend to draw a line around who belongs, and people on the wrong side of that line are often treated worse than in a town with no dominant faith.", "page": "p/congregations-tend-draw-line.html", "belief": "communities-generally-better-off", "draft": false }, { "key": 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{ "key": "when-state-backs-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "When the state backs one faith's rules, every other faith loses freedom, and the majority faith loses it too the moment it stops being the majority.", "page": "p/when-state-backs-one.html", "belief": "religious-beliefs-almost-never", "draft": false }, { "key": "religious-arguments-rest-revelation", "kind": "claim", "text": "Religious arguments rest on revelation that evidence cannot check, so bringing them into lawmaking ends the debate instead of continuing it.", "page": "p/religious-arguments-rest-revelation.html", "belief": "religious-beliefs-almost-never", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-people-s-deepest", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many people's deepest moral convictions come from their faith, and asking them to leave those convictions out when they vote on laws or argue for them is asking them to take part in lawmaking as someone other than themselves.", "page": "p/many-people-s-deepest.html", "belief": "religious-beliefs-almost-never", "draft": false }, { "key": "secular-moral-views-about", "kind": "claim", "text": "Secular moral views about what the law should be also rest on assumptions no one can prove, so barring only religious reasons from lawmaking is not neutral but favors one worldview over another.", "page": "p/secular-moral-views-about.html", "belief": "religious-beliefs-almost-never", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-reform-movements-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many of the reform movements people now admire argued for changes in the law from faith, so a rule keeping religious reasons out of lawmaking would have shut out some of the most important legal reforms.", "page": "p/many-reform-movements-people.html", "belief": "religious-beliefs-almost-never", "draft": false }, { "key": "four-year-college-degree", "kind": "belief", "text": "A four-year college degree is still worth its cost for most students.", "page": "p/four-year-college-degree.html", "belief": 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"kind": "belief", "text": "Most young people would be better served by trade training or an apprenticeship than by a four-year degree.", "page": "p/most-young-people-better.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "skilled-trades-pay-well", "kind": "claim", "text": "Skilled trades pay well, are in short supply, and cannot be sent overseas or handed to software.", "page": "p/skilled-trades-pay-well.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "apprentices-earn-while-learn", "kind": "claim", "text": "Apprentices earn while they learn instead of paying for four years and starting adult life in debt.", "page": "p/apprentices-earn-while-learn.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-students-sit-through", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many students sit through college courses they do not want because they were told there was no respectable alternative, and they would thrive doing hands-on work.", "page": "p/many-students-sit-through.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "trade-work-often-hard", "kind": "claim", "text": "Trade work is often hard on the body, and workers who cannot continue in their forties or fifties have fewer ways to change careers than degree holders do.", "page": "p/trade-work-often-hard.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "four-year-degree-entry", "kind": "claim", "text": "A four-year degree is the entry ticket for graduate school, management and many licensed professions, and shutting that door at eighteen limits a person's whole life.", "page": "p/four-year-degree-entry.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "pushing-most-young-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Pushing most young people toward trades would flood those fields and drive down the very wages that make them attractive now.", "page": "p/pushing-most-young-people.html", "belief": "most-young-people-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "letting-public-education-money", "kind": "belief", "text": "Letting public education money follow each student to the school their family chooses clearly improves education for the families who need it most.", "page": "p/letting-public-education-money.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "wealthy-families-already-choose", "kind": "claim", "text": "Wealthy families already choose schools by buying homes in good districts or paying tuition, and choice programs give poorer families the same power.", "page": "p/wealthy-families-already-choose.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "school-must-attract-students", "kind": "claim", "text": "A school that must attract students has a reason to improve, while a school with a captive enrollment does not.", "page": "p/school-must-attract-students.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "children-differ-system-lets", "kind": "claim", "text": "Children differ, and a system that lets a family match a child to a school's strengths serves that child better than one that assigns each child by address.", "page": "p/children-differ-system-lets.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "families-most-able-shop", "kind": "claim", "text": "The families most able to shop for a school are also the ones who volunteer, raise money and push a school to fix its problems, so when they leave, the neighborhood school loses the people who held it to account.", "page": "p/families-most-able-shop.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "private-schools-take-public", "kind": "claim", "text": "Private schools that take public money can still turn students away, so the choice belongs to the school more than to the family.", "page": "p/private-schools-take-public.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-school-must-answer", "kind": "claim", "text": "A public school must answer to an elected board and open its records, so a family whose child is failed has a vote and a public process to use; when money moves to private schools that owe families neither, the families with the least time and money to fight for their children lose the tools they most rely on.", "page": "p/public-school-must-answer.html", "belief": "letting-public-education-money", "draft": false }, { "key": "sending-public-money-private", "kind": "belief", "text": "Sending public money to private and charter schools generally weakens the neighborhood schools that most children still attend.", "page": "p/sending-public-money-private.html", "belief": "sending-public-money-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-school-s-costs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most of a school's costs, such as buildings, buses and staff, do not shrink when a few students 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them, but the school also stops paying to teach that student, so the money left per child who stays does not have to fall.", "page": "p/student-who-leaves-takes.html", "belief": "sending-public-money-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "neighborhood-school-loses-students", "kind": "claim", "text": "A neighborhood school that loses students to a rival has a stronger reason to fix whatever drove them away, so competition tends to make it better rather than weaker.", "page": "p/neighborhood-school-loses-students.html", "belief": "sending-public-money-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-neighborhood-schools-crowded", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many neighborhood schools are crowded, so when some students leave for a private or charter school, the children who stay get smaller classes and more of each teacher's time, which leaves their school stronger rather than weaker.", "page": "p/many-neighborhood-schools-crowded.html", "belief": "sending-public-money-private", "draft": false }, { "key": "canceling-large-share-existing", "kind": "belief", "text": "Canceling a large share of existing student loan debt would do more good than harm.", "page": "p/canceling-large-share-existing.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "millions-people-took-student", "kind": "claim", "text": "Millions of people took on student loans as teenagers on the advice of parents, counselors and schools, and they should not carry a bad bet for decades.", "page": "p/millions-people-took-student.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "student-loan-payments-delay", "kind": "claim", "text": "Student loan payments delay home buying, starting families and starting businesses, and canceling that debt would free money that would ripple through the whole economy.", "page": "p/student-loan-payments-delay.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "government-has-absorbed-losses", "kind": "claim", "text": "Government has absorbed losses or extended rescue terms to farms and corporations in hard times, and ordinary graduates deserve the same consideration.", "page": "p/government-has-absorbed-losses.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "student-loan-forgiveness-taxes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Student loan forgiveness taxes people who never went to college, or who paid their loans off by living cheaply, to help people who on average earn more than they do.", "page": "p/student-loan-forgiveness-taxes.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "wiping-out-today-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Wiping out today's student debt does nothing about tomorrow's, and schools will keep raising prices if they learn the bill eventually lands elsewhere.", "page": "p/wiping-out-today-s.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "one-time-cancellation-student", "kind": "claim", "text": "A one-time cancellation of student debt rewards those who borrowed the most, not those who need help the most, when targeted relief could reach the truly stuck.", "page": "p/one-time-cancellation-student.html", "belief": "canceling-large-share-existing", "draft": false }, { "key": "adults-who-borrowed-college", "kind": "belief", "text": "Adults who borrowed for college generally should repay their loans rather than pass the cost to taxpayers who did not attend.", "page": "p/adults-who-borrowed-college.html", "belief": "adults-who-borrowed-college", "draft": false }, { "key": "loan-promise-society-erases", "kind": "claim", "text": "A loan is a promise, and a society that erases promises when they become inconvenient makes every future promise worth less.", "page": "p/loan-promise-society-erases.html", "belief": "adults-who-borrowed-college", "draft": false }, { "key": "borrowers-chose-school-major", "kind": "claim", "text": "Borrowers chose their school and major, and the people who chose cheaper paths should not be billed for someone else's choice.", "page": "p/borrowers-chose-school-major.html", "belief": "adults-who-borrowed-college", "draft": false }, { "key": "fair-fix-unaffordable-loan", "kind": "claim", "text": "The fair fix for an unaffordable loan is a payment plan tied to income, which already exists, rather than shifting the whole balance to the public.", "page": "p/fair-fix-unaffordable-loan.html", "belief": "adults-who-borrowed-college", "draft": false }, { "key": "teenagers-cannot-judge-loan", "kind": "claim", "text": "Teenagers cannot judge a loan whose terms depend on a job market a decade away, and it is not fair to hold them to a decision adults set up for them.", "page": "p/teenagers-cannot-judge-loan.html", "belief": "adults-who-borrowed-college", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-colleges-were-once", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public colleges were once cheap because taxpayers funded them, and the shift to student loans was itself a 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way to convince them that reading is a chore, and many never pick up a book again once school ends.", "page": "p/forcing-teenagers-through-books.html", "belief": "schools-generally-require-students", "draft": false }, { "key": "list-classics-reflects-who", "kind": "claim", "text": "The list of classics reflects who had the power to publish and to teach in earlier centuries, so treating it as the measure of greatness passes on those old exclusions.", "page": "p/list-classics-reflects-who.html", "belief": "schools-generally-require-students", "draft": false }, { "key": "reading-skill-grows-mainly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reading skill grows mainly from the sheer amount a person reads, and students read far more when they are allowed to follow their own interests.", "page": "p/reading-skill-grows-mainly.html", "belief": "schools-generally-require-students", "draft": false }, { "key": "popular-genre-fiction-such", "kind": "belief", "text": "Popular genre fiction such as romance, crime 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as popular entertainment in their day, which suggests that today's genre fiction will supply some of tomorrow's classics.", "page": "p/many-books-now-taught.html", "belief": "popular-genre-fiction-such", "draft": false }, { "key": "literary-fiction-defined-taking", "kind": "claim", "text": "Literary fiction is defined by taking risks with form, language and moral ambiguity, and genre conventions exist precisely to limit those risks so that readers get what they expect.", "page": "p/literary-fiction-defined-taking.html", "belief": "popular-genre-fiction-such", "draft": false }, { "key": "book-written-mainly-entertain", "kind": "claim", "text": "A book written mainly to entertain succeeds by delivering pleasure, while a book written to explore human experience succeeds by what it reveals, so granting both the same critical respect ignores that they are attempting different and unequally demanding things.", "page": "p/book-written-mainly-entertain.html", "belief": "popular-genre-fiction-such", "draft": false }, { "key": "serious-review-space-prize", "kind": "claim", "text": "Serious review space and prize attention are scarce, and spending them on books that already have large and loyal readerships takes them away from the ambitious books that need a critic's help to find any readers at all.", "page": "p/serious-review-space-prize.html", "belief": "popular-genre-fiction-such", "draft": false }, { "key": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "kind": "belief", "text": "Philosophy should generally be taught in high school alongside math and science.", "page": "p/philosophy-generally-taught-high.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "philosophy-teaches-how-tell", "kind": "claim", "text": "Philosophy teaches how to tell a good argument from a bad one and how to disagree without fighting, and those skills are needed by every citizen in every job.", "page": "p/philosophy-teaches-how-tell.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "teenagers-already-face-questions", "kind": "claim", "text": "Teenagers already face questions about fairness, honesty, free will and what makes a life worth living, and school currently leaves them to work these out from whatever they find online.", "page": "p/teenagers-already-face-questions.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-other-subject-rests", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every other subject rests on assumptions about what counts as knowledge and why it matters, and philosophy is the one place a student gets to examine those assumptions directly.", "page": "p/every-other-subject-rests.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "school-day-already-full", "kind": "claim", "text": "The school day is already full, and adding philosophy means cutting time from reading, math or science, where students have measurable needs that are not being met.", "page": "p/school-day-already-full.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-teenagers-lack-background", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most teenagers lack the background knowledge and patience philosophy demands, so a high school philosophy class tends to become a discussion of opinions in which nobody learns anything they did not already believe.", "page": "p/most-teenagers-lack-background.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "few-teachers-trained-teach", "kind": "claim", "text": "Few teachers are trained to teach philosophy well, and a badly taught philosophy course is worse than none, because it convinces students the subject is empty talk.", "page": "p/few-teachers-trained-teach.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-taught-high", "draft": false }, { "key": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "kind": "belief", "text": "Philosophy generally makes no real progress on its big questions.", "page": "p/philosophy-generally-makes-no.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "same-questions-about-free", "kind": "claim", "text": "The same questions about free will, the nature of goodness and what we can know have been argued for as long as philosophy has existed, and there is still no agreed answer to any of them.", "page": "p/same-questions-about-free.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "philosophy-has-no-shared", "kind": "claim", "text": "Philosophy has no shared method for settling a dispute, so rival schools can persist side by side for centuries with no way to show that one of them has been proven wrong.", "page": "p/philosophy-has-no-shared.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "whenever-philosophical-question-does", "kind": "claim", "text": "Whenever a philosophical question does get answered, it stops being called philosophy and becomes physics, psychology or economics, which leaves philosophy holding only the questions that cannot be settled.", "page": "p/whenever-philosophical-question-does.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "progress-philosophy-takes-form", "kind": "claim", "text": "Progress in philosophy takes the form of ruling out answers that once seemed plausible and sharpening the questions, and by that measure the field is far ahead of where it started.", "page": "p/progress-philosophy-takes-form.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "careful-arguments-about-who", "kind": "claim", "text": "Careful arguments about who deserves fair treatment and whose suffering counts have changed what most people believe is right and wrong, and a widely shared answer to part of an ancient question about goodness is real progress on that question.", "page": "p/careful-arguments-about-who.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "parts-old-big-questions", "kind": "claim", "text": "Parts of the old big questions, such as how the mind works and what the world is made of, moved into science only after philosophers made them precise enough to test, so that move shows philosophy advancing its questions rather than failing at them.", "page": "p/parts-old-big-questions.html", "belief": "philosophy-generally-makes-no", "draft": false }, { "key": "human-activity-clearly-main", "kind": "belief", "text": "Human activity is clearly the main cause of the warming seen over the past century.", "page": "p/human-activity-clearly-main.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "global-warming-over-past", "kind": "claim", "text": "Global warming over the past century closely tracks the rise in heat-trapping gases from burning coal, oil and gas, and no natural cause matches its timing.", "page": "p/global-warming-over-past.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "scientists-have-measured-laboratories", "kind": "claim", "text": "Scientists have measured in laboratories for generations how carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases absorb heat, so warming from adding more of them to the air is expected, not a surprise.", "page": "p/scientists-have-measured-laboratories.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "pattern-recent-warming-earth", "kind": "claim", "text": "The pattern of recent warming, with Earth's lower atmosphere warming while its upper atmosphere cools, is the signature of heat trapped by gases and not of a brighter sun.", "page": "p/pattern-recent-warming-earth.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "earth-s-climate-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "Earth's climate has swung between warm and cold periods long before industry, so a warm stretch on its own is not proof of a human cause.", "page": "p/earth-s-climate-has.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "temperature-records-need-large", "kind": "claim", "text": "Temperature records need large adjustments for station moves, instrument changes and gaps, so the close match between rising gases and rising temperatures may be sensitive to those adjustment choices.", "page": "p/temperature-records-need-large.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "ocean-cycles-run-decades", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ocean cycles run for decades and can add to or hide warming, making it hard to separate the human share of recent global warming from natural swings.", "page": "p/ocean-cycles-run-decades.html", "belief": "human-activity-clearly-main", "draft": false }, { "key": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "kind": "belief", "text": "Scientists and agencies who publish regional and local climate forecasts generally present them with more confidence than the climate models behind them have earned.", "page": "p/scientists-agencies-who-publish.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "climate-models-agree-about", "kind": "claim", "text": "Climate models agree about warming for the planet as a whole but disagree sharply about future rainfall and storms in any single region, so a local forecast built from one model or one average hides that disagreement.", "page": "p/climate-models-agree-about.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "climate-models-divide-world", "kind": "claim", "text": "Climate models divide the world into boxes many miles wide, so clouds and rainstorms smaller than one box are estimated with rough rules rather than directly simulated, which makes local rainfall forecasts less certain than they look.", "page": "p/climate-models-divide-world.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-local-climate-forecasts", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many local climate forecasts are made by scaling down global climate models with statistical shortcuts, and those shortcuts add errors of their own that are rarely shown to the people using the forecasts.", "page": "p/many-local-climate-forecasts.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "official-regional-climate-projections", "kind": "claim", "text": "Official regional climate projections are usually published with ranges and several scenarios, and planners are told to use the full range, so the uncertainty is disclosed rather than hidden.", "page": "p/official-regional-climate-projections.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "climate-models-forecast-some", "kind": "claim", "text": "Climate models forecast some regional shifts, such as the Arctic warming faster than the rest of the world, before those shifts showed up clearly in local records, so regional climate projections have some track record behind them.", "page": "p/climate-models-forecast-some.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-regional-climate-projections", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many regional climate projections rest on simple physics that does not depend on fine detail, such as land warming faster than sea and warmer air holding more moisture, so confidence in those projections is earned even where small-scale details are rough.", "page": "p/many-regional-climate-projections.html", "belief": "scientists-agencies-who-publish", "draft": false }, { "key": "string-theory-has-clearly", "kind": "belief", "text": "String theory has clearly failed to earn the central place it holds in physics.", "page": "p/string-theory-has-clearly.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "theory-fits-any-possible", "kind": "claim", "text": "A theory that fits any possible observation explains nothing, and string theory allows so many versions that it can be made to fit almost anything.", "page": "p/theory-fits-any-possible.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "theory-earns-its-place", "kind": "claim", "text": "A theory earns its place by explaining something older theories could not, and string theory has not yet explained any measured quantity that physicists could not already account for.", "page": "p/theory-earns-its-place.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "new-partner-particles-many", "kind": "claim", "text": "The new partner particles that many versions of string theory expected at high energies have not shown up in experiments, which weakens the case that was built on them.", "page": "p/new-partner-particles-many.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "string-theory-most-developed", "kind": "claim", "text": "String theory is the most developed approach that fits gravity and quantum physics into one framework, and that achievement alone justifies its place while rivals remain less complete.", "page": "p/string-theory-most-developed.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-accepted-theories-waited", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many accepted theories waited generations for the technology to test them, so string theory's lack of a test today is not proof of failure.", "page": "p/many-accepted-theories-waited.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "string-theory-s-mathematics", "kind": "claim", "text": "String theory's mathematics has already solved problems in other fields, which shows it is productive even before any direct test.", "page": "p/string-theory-s-mathematics.html", "belief": "string-theory-has-clearly", "draft": false }, { "key": "building-new-larger-particle", "kind": "belief", "text": "Building a new, larger particle collider is clearly worth its cost for what it could reveal.", "page": "p/building-new-larger-particle.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-jump-collision-energy", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every jump in collision energy has found new particles or ruled out ideas, and there is no other way to probe matter at those scales.", "page": "p/every-jump-collision-energy.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "technology-built-particle-colliders", "kind": "claim", "text": "The technology built for particle colliders, from magnets to data handling, tends to spread into medicine and computing, so part of the value comes back even if no new particle is found.", "page": "p/technology-built-particle-colliders.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "spread-over-decades-many", "kind": "claim", "text": "Spread over decades and many countries, the cost of a new, larger particle collider is small against national budgets and buys an experiment no single nation could do alone.", "page": "p/spread-over-decades-many.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "last-big-particle-collider", "kind": "claim", "text": "The last big particle collider found what was expected and nothing beyond it, and no theory says a larger one will reach anything new.", "page": "p/last-big-particle-collider.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "money-new-particle-collider", "kind": "claim", "text": "The money for a new particle collider could instead fund many smaller experiments across many fields, which together offer more chances of a surprise.", "page": "p/money-new-particle-collider.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "precise-measurements-known-particles", "kind": "claim", "text": "Precise measurements of known particles and cheaper sky-watching experiments can test the ideas a new collider would test, without building a new machine.", "page": "p/precise-measurements-known-particles.html", "belief": "building-new-larger-particle", "draft": false }, { "key": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "kind": "belief", "text": "Governments should generally fund efforts to keep endangered minority languages alive.", "page": "p/governments-generally-fund-efforts.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "language-carries-community-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "A language carries a community's stories, humor, and ways of seeing the world that cannot be fully translated, and because losing it is a loss for everyone, the public has good reason to pay to prevent it.", "page": "p/language-carries-community-s.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-minority-languages-were", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many minority languages were pushed toward extinction by past government policy, so public money to reverse that is fair repair rather than a favor.", "page": "p/many-minority-languages-were.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "children-who-keep-home", "kind": "claim", "text": "Children who keep their home language while learning the national one tend to do better in school, not worse, so public funding of minority-language programs helps the very students it is meant to serve.", "page": "p/children-who-keep-home.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-money-limited-paying", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public money is limited, and paying to keep alive a language few people choose to speak takes funds from schools and services that reach far more people.", "page": "p/public-money-limited-paying.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "languages-survive-mainly-when", "kind": "claim", "text": "Languages survive mainly when parents speak them to their children at home, and publicly funded classes rarely lead families to do that, so the money seldom achieves what it is meant to.", "page": "p/languages-survive-mainly-when.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "publicly-funded-programs-teach", "kind": "claim", "text": "Publicly funded programs that teach children in a minority language take school hours away from the national language, which can leave those children less fluent in the language most jobs require.", "page": "p/publicly-funded-programs-teach.html", "belief": "governments-generally-fund-efforts", "draft": false }, { "key": "schools-country-one-dominant", "kind": "belief", "text": "Schools in a country with one dominant language should teach mainly in that language rather than in students' home languages.", "page": "p/schools-country-one-dominant.html", "belief": "schools-country-one-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "sharing-one-language-lets", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sharing one language lets citizens argue, vote, and work 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language.", "page": "p/children-learn-read-do.html", "belief": "schools-country-one-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "making-dominant-language-main", "kind": "claim", "text": "Making the dominant language the main language of instruction signals to children that their family's language matters less, which can hurt their confidence and weaken ties with parents and grandparents.", "page": "p/making-dominant-language-main.html", "belief": "schools-country-one-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "children-taught-partly-home", "kind": "claim", "text": "Children taught partly in their home language keep it and grow into fully bilingual adults, while schooling mainly in the dominant language tends to replace the home language and throw away a skill that helps in trade, diplomacy, and many jobs.", "page": "p/children-taught-partly-home.html", "belief": "schools-country-one-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "where-person-ends-up", "kind": "belief", "text": "Where a person ends up in life is shaped more by the family and neighborhood they were born into than by their own choices.", "page": "p/where-person-ends-up.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "child-s-schooling-health", "kind": "claim", "text": "A child's schooling, health, safety, and connections are set before they can make any choices, and those early conditions shape which choices are later available.", "page": "p/child-s-schooling-health.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-born-into-wealth", "kind": "claim", "text": "People born into wealth who make poor choices usually land softly, while people born poor who make good choices often still struggle, which shows circumstance outweighs choice.", "page": "p/people-born-into-wealth.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "habits-expectations-people-call", "kind": "claim", "text": "The habits and expectations people call choices are largely learned from the people around them, so choice itself is a product of circumstance.", "page": "p/habits-expectations-people-call.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "brothers-sisters-raised-same", "kind": "claim", "text": "Brothers and sisters raised in the same home by the same parents often end up in very different places as adults, and the gaps between them regularly line up with the decisions each one made about school, work, and friends, which a shared upbringing cannot explain.", "page": "p/brothers-sisters-raised-same.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "early-conditions-set-starting", "kind": "claim", "text": "Early conditions set the starting line rather than the finish, because habits built in adulthood, such as showing up, saving, and staying out of trouble, compound over decades in ways that birth circumstances do not.", "page": "p/early-conditions-set-starting.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "immigrants-who-arrive-nothing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Immigrants who arrive with nothing and rise within a generation show that steady work and patience can overcome the disadvantages of a poor starting point.", "page": "p/immigrants-who-arrive-nothing.html", "belief": "where-person-ends-up", "draft": false }, { "key": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "kind": "belief", "text": "In wealthy countries, most adults who stay poor do so mainly because of their own choices about school, work, and family, not because the chance to escape was closed to them.", "page": "p/wealthy-countries-most-adults.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "wealthy-countries-free-public", "kind": "claim", "text": "In wealthy countries, free public schooling and widely available entry-level jobs mean that most young adults, even those raised poor, have a real chance to finish school and start earning.", "page": "p/wealthy-countries-free-public.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "household-two-committed-adults", "kind": "claim", "text": "A household with two committed adults has two incomes and two people's time to absorb a lost job or a sick child, so deciding to marry before having children protects a family from hardship that a single parent often cannot escape.", "page": "p/household-two-committed-adults.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-people-who-grow", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many people who grow up poor leave poverty as adults while others from the same background do not, and the difference usually tracks decisions such as dropping out of school, quitting jobs, or having children early.", "page": "p/many-people-who-grow.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-finish-school", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who finish school, keep steady work, and marry before having children usually had supportive families and safe neighborhoods to begin with, so those habits reflect advantages they were given rather than choices that explain their success.", "page": "p/people-who-finish-school.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "places-where-steady-jobs", "kind": "claim", "text": "In places where steady jobs have disappeared, full-time work often does not pay enough to lift a family out of poverty, so people there stay poor even when they make every sensible choice.", "page": "p/places-where-steady-jobs.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "marrying-before-having-children", "kind": "claim", "text": "Marrying before having children depends on finding a partner with a steady income, and in communities where such partners are scarce, that path is not really open to people no matter what they choose.", "page": "p/marrying-before-having-children.html", "belief": "wealthy-countries-most-adults", "draft": false }, { "key": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "kind": "belief", "text": "Dictionaries should generally record how people actually use words rather than rule on which uses are correct.", "page": "p/dictionaries-generally-record-how.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "language-changes-whether-anyone", "kind": "claim", "text": "Language changes whether or not anyone approves of the change, so a dictionary that refuses to record a common meaning stops describing the language people speak.", "page": "p/language-changes-whether-anyone.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "readers-open-dictionary-find", "kind": "claim", "text": "Readers open a dictionary to find out what a word they just met means, and that need is met only if the entry covers the meanings in real use.", "page": "p/readers-open-dictionary-find.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "no-group-editors-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "No group of editors has the authority to decide for millions of speakers what their own words mean.", "page": "p/no-group-editors-has.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "dictionary-one-few-tools", "kind": "claim", "text": "A dictionary is one of the few tools that lets writers agree on a shared standard, and giving up that role leaves nobody to hold the line.", "page": "p/dictionary-one-few-tools.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "listing-widespread-use-began", "kind": "claim", "text": "Listing a widespread use that began as an error, without marking it as disputed, speeds the loss of useful distinctions between words.", "page": "p/listing-widespread-use-began.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "entry-records-how-word", "kind": "claim", "text": "An entry that records how a word is used without saying how careful writers and educated readers will receive that use leaves students and people learning the language without the guidance they most need.", "page": "p/entry-records-how-word.html", "belief": "dictionaries-generally-record-how", "draft": false }, { "key": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "kind": "belief", "text": "A dictionary should generally refuse to list a widespread misuse of a word as a legitimate meaning until careful writers have accepted it.", "page": "p/dictionary-generally-refuse-list.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-dictionary-lists-common", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a dictionary lists a common mistake as a meaning, readers take the entry as permission to use it, so the dictionary itself speeds the spread of the error.", "page": "p/when-dictionary-lists-common.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "dictionary-earns-its-authority", "kind": "claim", "text": "A dictionary earns its authority by being selective, and an entry that treats a misreading as a settled meaning spends that authority on a fashion that may not last.", "page": "p/dictionary-earns-its-authority.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "waiting-until-careful-writers", "kind": "claim", "text": "Waiting until careful writers accept a new meaning costs little, because a use that truly enters the language will still be there when the dictionary catches up.", "page": "p/waiting-until-careful-writers.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "which-uses-word-count", "kind": "claim", "text": "Which uses of a word count as misuses depends on who is asked, so waiting for careful writers to approve a meaning hands a small group control over what a whole language is allowed to mean.", "page": "p/which-uses-word-count.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "reader-who-meets-word", "kind": "claim", "text": "A reader who meets a word in a common but disputed sense and cannot find that sense in the dictionary is left worse informed, which defeats the reason the dictionary exists.", "page": "p/reader-who-meets-word.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "treating-widespread-use-word", "kind": "claim", "text": "Treating a widespread use of a word as an error mostly stigmatizes the speech of particular regions and social classes, and a reference work should not do that.", "page": "p/treating-widespread-use-word.html", "belief": "dictionary-generally-refuse-list", "draft": false }, { "key": "television-channels-present-opinion", "kind": "belief", "text": "Television channels that present opinion shows in the style of a newscast should be required to label those shows as opinion on screen.", "page": "p/television-channels-present-opinion.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-opinion-host-sits", "kind": "claim", "text": "When an opinion host sits at the same desk, with the same graphics and the same tone as the news anchor, most viewers cannot tell which one they are watching.", "page": "p/when-opinion-host-sits.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "printed-newspapers-have-kept", "kind": "claim", "text": "Printed newspapers have kept opinion on a labeled editorial page, apart from the news pages, for generations, so requiring an on-screen opinion label on television asks channels to do only what print has long done.", "page": "p/printed-newspapers-have-kept.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-viewers-mistake-television", "kind": "claim", "text": "When viewers mistake a television commentator's argument for reported fact, they come away sure of things no reporter has checked, and that confusion wears down trust in the real reporting on the same channel.", "page": "p/when-viewers-mistake-television.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "any-official-body-decides", "kind": "claim", "text": "Any official body that decides which segments are opinion is deciding which segments are news, and that is a power no government should hold over the press.", "page": "p/any-official-body-decides.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-honest-newscast-contains", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every honest newscast contains analysis, framing, and judgment calls, so the line between news and opinion that an on-screen labeling rule would have to draw does not exist in practice.", "page": "p/every-honest-newscast-contains.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "regular-viewers-television-news", "kind": "claim", "text": "Regular viewers of television news already know which hosts are commentators and which are reporters, so an on-screen opinion label would tell them nothing they do not already know.", "page": "p/regular-viewers-television-news.html", "belief": "television-channels-present-opinion", "draft": false }, { "key": "publicly-funded-television-news", "kind": "belief", "text": "Publicly funded television news is generally not worth the cost now that viewers have countless free sources.", "page": "p/publicly-funded-television-news.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "taxpayers-pay-public-news", "kind": "claim", "text": "Taxpayers pay for a public news channel most of them never watch, while the people who do watch it could afford to pay for it themselves.", "page": "p/taxpayers-pay-public-news.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-broadcasters-tend-reflect", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public broadcasters tend to reflect the tastes and assumptions of the educated professionals who run them, so the public pays for a channel that speaks for a slice of it.", "page": "p/public-broadcasters-tend-reflect.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "news-outlet-depends-government", "kind": "claim", "text": "A news outlet that depends on government money has its budget set by the officials it is supposed to cover, so it is never fully free to report on them.", "page": "p/news-outlet-depends-government.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "because-publicly-funded-news", "kind": "claim", "text": "Because a publicly funded news channel does not depend on advertisers, it has no reason to chase outrage the way commercial channels do, so it offers viewers something the free commercial channels do not.", "page": "p/because-publicly-funded-news.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "publicly-funded-television-news-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Publicly funded television news covers the stories commercial channels skip because they draw few viewers, such as state legislatures, local government meetings, and slow investigative reporting that takes months to finish.", "page": "p/publicly-funded-television-news-2.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-people-face-countless", "kind": "claim", "text": "When people face countless news sources of uneven quality, a publicly funded broadcaster with a duty to be accurate gives them one trusted reference point against which to check the rest.", "page": "p/when-people-face-countless.html", "belief": "publicly-funded-television-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "social-media-platforms-required", "kind": "belief", "text": "Social media platforms should be required to pay news publishers for the articles that draw users into their feeds.", "page": "p/social-media-platforms-required.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "social-media-platforms-earn", "kind": "claim", "text": "Social media platforms earn advertising money from posts built around news reporting they did not pay for, so the value created in the newsroom is collected somewhere else.", "page": "p/social-media-platforms-earn.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "reporting-expensive-produce-if", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reporting is expensive to produce, and if nobody pays for it once it reaches social media, less of it will be produced and people who get their news through social media will have less worth reading.", "page": "p/reporting-expensive-produce-if.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "large-social-media-platform", "kind": "claim", "text": "A large social media platform can walk away from any single news publisher, but no publisher can afford to lose the platform's traffic, so private bargaining alone will never set a fair price for news.", "page": "p/large-social-media-platform.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "social-media-platforms-send", "kind": "claim", "text": "Social media platforms send news publishers readers for free, and publishers post their own links on those platforms voluntarily because they want the traffic.", "page": "p/social-media-platforms-send.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "laws-force-social-media", "kind": "claim", "text": "Laws that force social media platforms to pay news publishers send most of the money to large publishers who can afford to negotiate, while small and independent outlets get little or nothing.", "page": "p/laws-force-social-media.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-social-media-platforms", "kind": "claim", "text": "If social media platforms must pay for every news article they carry, they will choose which outlets are worth paying for, which puts a private company in charge of what news people see.", "page": "p/if-social-media-platforms.html", "belief": "social-media-platforms-required", "draft": false }, { "key": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "kind": "belief", "text": "Ordinary people are generally better served when social media platforms show news posts without labeling, fact-checking, or removing them than when platforms do those things.", "page": "p/ordinary-people-generally-better.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "warning-label-social-media", "kind": "claim", "text": "A warning label on a social media news post tells people what to conclude before they have watched the footage or read the witness accounts themselves, which puts the platform's verdict in place of their own judgment.", "page": "p/warning-label-social-media.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "platform-labels-removes-posts", "kind": "claim", "text": "A platform that labels or removes posts is making the same editorial choices a newsroom makes, but with far less training and no duty to answer to its readers.", "page": "p/platform-labels-removes-posts.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-social-media-platform", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a social media platform removes a false news claim, the people who believe it tend to read the removal as proof of a cover-up, so they end up more convinced rather than less.", "page": "p/when-social-media-platform.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "social-media-feed-no", "kind": "claim", "text": "A social media feed with no labels or moderation still ranks posts by the reactions they get, so it pushes the most outrageous version of a story ahead of the most accurate one, and labeling is one of the few checks on that.", "page": "p/social-media-feed-no.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-social-media-platform-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a social media platform takes no responsibility for correcting false news posts, a correction, if anyone issues one at all, reaches only a small share of the people who saw the original error.", "page": "p/when-social-media-platform-2.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "video-clip-shared-social", "kind": "claim", "text": "A video clip shared on social media without its surrounding context can be made to mean almost anything by the caption attached to it, and a platform label that restores the missing context helps people avoid being misled.", "page": "p/video-clip-shared-social.html", "belief": "ordinary-people-generally-better", "draft": false }, { "key": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "kind": "belief", "text": "Journalists should generally have a legal right to refuse to reveal a confidential source's identity, except where a court finds the name is needed to prevent serious harm.", "page": "p/journalists-generally-have-legal.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-serious-wrongdoing-inside", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most serious wrongdoing inside governments and companies comes to light because an insider talks, and insiders stay silent when they know the reporter can be made to name them.", "page": "p/most-serious-wrongdoing-inside.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "reporter-who-can-forced", "kind": "claim", "text": "A reporter who can be forced to identify sources is turned into an investigator for the prosecution, which is not the job the public needs the press to do.", "page": "p/reporter-who-can-forced.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "courts-can-usually-get", "kind": "claim", "text": "Courts can usually get the facts they need in other ways, such as documents, other witnesses, or their own investigators, so forcing a reporter to talk is rarely the only path to the truth.", "page": "p/courts-can-usually-get.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "ordinary-people-called-witnesses", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ordinary people called as witnesses must answer a court's questions even when they promised someone secrecy, and reporters have no better claim to be excused than anyone else.", "page": "p/ordinary-people-called-witnesses.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-reporters-can-keep", "kind": "claim", "text": "When reporters can keep sources secret unless a court finds serious harm, an official who illegally leaks classified material out of spite or for political gain usually stays hidden, so the law ends up shielding people who broke it.", "page": "p/when-reporters-can-keep.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "someone-has-decide-who", "kind": "claim", "text": "Someone has to decide who counts as a journalist before a legal right to keep sources secret can apply, and that hands government a power to license the press.", "page": "p/someone-has-decide-who.html", "belief": "journalists-generally-have-legal", "draft": false }, { "key": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "kind": "belief", "text": "A news outlet that publishes a false and damaging claim about anyone, including a public figure, should generally have to pay damages if it failed to take reasonable care to check the claim.", "page": "p/news-outlet-publishes-false.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-public-figure-ruined", "kind": "claim", "text": "When a public figure ruined by a false story must prove the outlet knew the claim was false or strongly suspected it, an outlet that simply never bothered to check pays nothing.", "page": "p/when-public-figure-ruined.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "stepping-into-public-life", "kind": "claim", "text": "Stepping into public life should not mean giving up the right to repair your name when a news outlet is careless with the truth, because that price keeps many capable people out of public service.", "page": "p/stepping-into-public-life.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "real-chance-losing-court", "kind": "claim", "text": "A real chance of losing in court is the one thing that reliably makes an outlet check its facts before publishing.", "page": "p/real-chance-losing-court.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "wealthy-powerful-people-already", "kind": "claim", "text": "Wealthy and powerful people already use lawsuits to bury true stories under legal costs, and letting them win by showing only that a reporter was careless, rather than that the outlet knew the claim was false, would make those threats far more dangerous to a newsroom.", "page": "p/wealthy-powerful-people-already.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "reporters-working-under-threat", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reporters working under the threat of a lawsuit soften true statements into vague ones, so readers get less plain fact about everything, not only about the powerful.", "page": "p/reporters-working-under-threat.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "errors-get-fixed-faster", "kind": "claim", "text": "Errors get fixed faster by public corrections and by competing outlets than by courts, which take years to decide what a reader could check in a day.", "page": "p/errors-get-fixed-faster.html", "belief": "news-outlet-publishes-false", "draft": false }, { "key": "single-government-run-health", "kind": "belief", "text": "A single government-run health insurance program covering everyone would generally deliver better care at lower cost than a system of competing private insurers.", "page": "p/single-government-run-health.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "one-public-health-insurer", "kind": "claim", "text": "One public health insurer covering everyone spends far less on billing, marketing, and disputes over who pays than competing private insurers must, because competing is what creates those costs.", "page": "p/one-public-health-insurer.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "one-buyer-whole-country", "kind": "claim", "text": "One buyer for the whole country can bargain down prices from hospitals and drug companies in a way no single private insurer can.", "page": "p/one-buyer-whole-country.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-there-only-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "When there is only one insurer and every doctor accepts it, patients never lose their doctor because of a job change, a network change, or a new plan year.", "page": "p/when-there-only-one.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "only-one-insurer-patient", "kind": "claim", "text": "With only one insurer, a patient whose treatment is denied has no other plan to switch to, so patients lose the power to take their business elsewhere.", "page": "p/only-one-insurer-patient.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-all-health-spending", "kind": "claim", "text": "When all health spending comes from one government budget, it competes every year with schools, roads and defense, and when money is short the gap tends to show up as longer waits for care.", "page": "p/when-all-health-spending.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "new-taxes-needed-pay", "kind": "claim", "text": "The new taxes needed to pay for one public plan would hold down wages and hiring by more than the plan saves on paperwork, so the country as a whole would pay more, not less.", "page": "p/new-taxes-needed-pay.html", "belief": "single-government-run-health", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-generally-pay-routine", "kind": "belief", "text": "People should generally pay for routine medical care out of their own pockets and buy private insurance only to cover large, unexpected expenses.", "page": "p/people-generally-pay-routine.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "insurance-exists-protect-against", "kind": "claim", "text": "Insurance exists to protect against ruin, not to pay predictable bills; running routine visits through an insurer adds paperwork and cost to every one.", "page": "p/insurance-exists-protect-against.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-pay-own", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who pay for their own checkups and prescriptions shop around and ask what things cost, which pushes prices down for everyone.", "page": "p/people-who-pay-own.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "low-premiums-catastrophic-plans", "kind": "claim", "text": "Low premiums for catastrophic plans let more people afford coverage at all, instead of going without because a full plan is too expensive.", "page": "p/low-premiums-catastrophic-plans.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-people-pay-out", "kind": "claim", "text": "When people pay out of pocket they skip needed care along with unneeded care, and a skipped blood pressure check becomes the stroke the plan then pays for.", "page": "p/when-people-pay-out.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "patients-cannot-shop-medical", "kind": "claim", "text": "Patients cannot shop for medical care the way they shop for groceries; they do not know what they need, and prices are rarely posted.", "page": "p/patients-cannot-shop-medical.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "long-term-illnesses-like", "kind": "claim", "text": "Long-term illnesses like diabetes bring large bills that are steady rather than unexpected, so a plan that covers only surprises leaves the people who need the most care paying the most.", "page": "p/long-term-illnesses-like.html", "belief": "people-generally-pay-routine", "draft": false }, { "key": "any-registered-voter-able", "kind": "belief", "text": "Any registered voter should be able to vote by mail without giving a reason.", "page": "p/any-registered-voter-able.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-working-people-cannot", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many working people cannot get to a polling place during open hours, and a mail ballot lets them vote without missing a shift or finding child care.", "page": "p/many-working-people-cannot.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "voter-filling-out-mail", "kind": "claim", "text": "A voter filling out a mail ballot at home has time to look up candidates and ballot measures instead of guessing in a booth.", "page": "p/voter-filling-out-mail.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "making-voters-give-approved", "kind": "claim", "text": "Making voters give an approved excuse to vote by mail forces them to reveal private matters like illness or travel, and officials have no practical way to check those excuses anyway, so the requirement burdens honest voters without stopping dishonest ones.", "page": "p/making-voters-give-approved.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "ballot-filled-out-kitchen", "kind": "claim", "text": "A ballot filled out at the kitchen table cannot be kept secret the way a booth keeps it, so family members, employers, or organizers can pressure the voter.", "page": "p/ballot-filled-out-kitchen.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-ballots-travel-through", "kind": "claim", "text": "When ballots travel through the mail, election officials cannot watch them from the voter's hand to the counting room, so the chain of custody has gaps.", "page": "p/when-ballots-travel-through.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "mail-ballots-get-rejected", "kind": "claim", "text": "Mail ballots get rejected for signature mismatches and late postmarks that in-person voters never face, so some honest votes are thrown out.", "page": "p/mail-ballots-get-rejected.html", "belief": "any-registered-voter-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "voters-generally-required-show", "kind": "belief", "text": "Voters should generally be required to show government-issued photo identification before casting a ballot.", "page": "p/voters-generally-required-show.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "nearly-every-other-important", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nearly every other important transaction, from boarding a plane to opening a bank account, already requires photo ID, so asking for it at the polls is not a new burden.", "page": "p/nearly-every-other-important.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-trust-election-depends", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public trust in an election depends on people believing each voter is who they claim to be, and a photo check makes that visible to everyone in line.", "page": "p/public-trust-election-depends.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "photo-id-requirement-removes", "kind": "claim", "text": "A photo ID requirement removes the guesswork poll workers face when deciding whether to challenge a voter, so the process is more even from one precinct to the next.", "page": "p/photo-id-requirement-removes.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-who-poor-elderly", "kind": "claim", "text": "People who are poor, elderly, or live far from a government office are the least likely to hold current photo ID, so a photo ID requirement at the polls turns away eligible citizens rather than cheats.", "page": "p/people-who-poor-elderly.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "voting-someone-else-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voting in someone else's name is so rare that a photo ID requirement spends time and money guarding against a kind of fraud that almost never happens.", "page": "p/voting-someone-else-s.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "voter-registration-records-signature", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voter registration records and signature checks already confirm who a voter is, so requiring photo ID at the polls adds a step for voters without adding real security.", "page": "p/voter-registration-records-signature.html", "belief": "voters-generally-required-show", "draft": false }, { "key": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "kind": "belief", "text": "The legislature, not the executive alone, should generally have to approve any sustained military action abroad.", "page": "p/legislature-executive-alone-generally.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "sending-people-fight-most", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sending people to fight is the most serious thing a government does, so it should need the broadest agreement, not one person's judgment.", "page": "p/sending-people-fight-most.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "debate-legislature-forces-case", "kind": "claim", "text": "A debate in the legislature forces the case for war to be made in public, where voters can hear it and judge it.", "page": "p/debate-legislature-forces-case.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "wars-begin-without-wide", "kind": "claim", "text": "Wars that begin without wide support tend to lose that support quickly, which leaves troops committed to a fight the country will not back.", "page": "p/wars-begin-without-wide.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "quick-military-response-emergency", "kind": "claim", "text": "A quick military response to an emergency often grows into a longer campaign, and stopping midway to seek the legislature's approval can leave troops in the field without clear orders.", "page": "p/quick-military-response-emergency.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "open-debate-legislature-about", "kind": "claim", "text": "Open debate in the legislature about a planned military action tells the enemy what the country is about to do and gives up the advantage of surprise.", "page": "p/open-debate-legislature-about.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "legislators-avoid-hard-votes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Legislators avoid hard votes on war, so a rule that requires their approval often means no decision gets made at all while the situation gets worse.", "page": "p/legislators-avoid-hard-votes.html", "belief": "legislature-executive-alone-generally", "draft": false }, { "key": "country-generally-keep-its", "kind": "belief", "text": "A country should generally keep its military spending high in peacetime rather than cutting it once threats seem to fade.", "page": "p/country-generally-keep-its.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "ships-aircraft-trained-crews", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ships, aircraft, and trained crews take years to build, so a country that cuts them in calm times cannot get them back when a threat appears.", "page": "p/ships-aircraft-trained-crews.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "visibly-strong-military-discourages", "kind": "claim", "text": "A visibly strong military discourages rivals from starting a conflict in the first place, which is far cheaper than fighting one.", "page": "p/visibly-strong-military-discourages.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "steady-funding-keeps-factories", "kind": "claim", "text": "Steady funding keeps the factories and skilled workers who build military equipment in business, so the country does not have to depend on others for its defense.", "page": "p/steady-funding-keeps-factories.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-dollar-spent-military", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every dollar spent on the military in peacetime is a dollar not spent on schools, roads, and health care that improve daily life now.", "page": "p/every-dollar-spent-military.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "large-standing-military-tempts", "kind": "claim", "text": "A large standing military tempts leaders to use it, drawing the country into conflicts it could have stayed out of.", "page": "p/large-standing-military-tempts.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "military-contractors-military-bases", "kind": "claim", "text": "Military contractors and military bases spread across every region create political pressure to keep defense spending high whether or not the actual threat justifies it.", "page": "p/military-contractors-military-bases.html", "belief": "country-generally-keep-its", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "kind": "belief", "text": "The United Kingdom should rejoin the European single market.", "page": "p/united-kingdom-rejoin-european.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "british-exporters-selling-into", "kind": "claim", "text": "British exporters selling into the European Union now face paperwork, delays, and border checks that make trade with their nearest and largest market slower and more expensive than it was when the United Kingdom was inside the single market.", "page": "p/british-exporters-selling-into.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "rejoining-european-single-market", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rejoining the European single market would let workers from European Union countries take jobs in the United Kingdom freely again, which would help British farms, hospitals, care homes, and hospitality businesses fill jobs they have struggled to fill.", "page": "p/rejoining-european-single-market.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "british-firms-sell-europe", "kind": "claim", "text": "British firms that sell in Europe already make their goods to European Union product rules, so rejoining the European single market would give the United Kingdom full access to that market while changing little about the rules its exporters actually follow.", "page": "p/british-firms-sell-europe.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "rejoining-european-single-market-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rejoining the European single market without rejoining the European Union would mean the United Kingdom accepting European rules and court rulings with no vote on them, which is worse than either full membership or full independence.", "page": "p/rejoining-european-single-market-2.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "rejoining-european-single-market-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rejoining the European single market would require the United Kingdom to accept free movement of people from European Union countries again, taking away its power to decide for itself who can come to live and work there.", "page": "p/rejoining-european-single-market-3.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "british-firms-face-second", "kind": "claim", "text": "British firms would face a second costly round of changes to their paperwork, supply chains, and product standards if the United Kingdom rejoined the European single market after they have already adjusted to trading outside it.", "page": "p/british-firms-face-second.html", "belief": "united-kingdom-rejoin-european", "draft": false }, { "key": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "kind": "belief", "text": "Japan should keep immigration low even as its population shrinks.", "page": "p/japan-keep-immigration-low.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "keeping-immigration-low-helps", "kind": "claim", "text": "Keeping immigration low helps Japan protect the high level of trust between neighbors and strangers that its widely shared customs and language make possible.", "page": "p/keeping-immigration-low-helps.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "keeping-immigration-low-keeps", "kind": "claim", "text": "Keeping immigration low keeps Japan's labor market tight, which pushes employers to raise wages, invest in automation, and bring more women and older people into work instead of hiring workers from abroad.", "page": "p/keeping-immigration-low-keeps.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "even-large-rise-immigration", "kind": "claim", "text": "Even a large rise in immigration would only slow Japan's population decline and aging rather than stop them, so it would bring the strain of integrating many newcomers without solving the problem it is meant to solve.", "page": "p/even-large-rise-immigration.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "japan-needs-more-immigrant", "kind": "claim", "text": "Japan needs more immigrant workers because its care homes, construction sites, and farms already cannot find enough staff, and machines cannot yet bathe a patient or pick fruit well enough to close the gap.", "page": "p/japan-needs-more-immigrant.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "more-young-immigrant-workers", "kind": "claim", "text": "More young immigrant workers paying taxes in Japan would help cover the cost of pensions and health care for its growing number of retirees, easing the pressure to raise taxes or cut benefits.", "page": "p/more-young-immigrant-workers.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "rural-towns-across-japan", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rural towns across Japan are emptying out and closing schools and clinics, and immigrants willing to settle in them are the only realistic way to keep those towns alive.", "page": "p/rural-towns-across-japan.html", "belief": "japan-keep-immigration-low", "draft": false }, { "key": "children-generally-do-best", "kind": "belief", "text": "Children generally do best when raised by two married parents.", "page": "p/children-generally-do-best.html", "belief": "children-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "marriage-ties-both-parents", "kind": "claim", "text": "Marriage ties both parents to a child in law from birth, with no separate paternity step, so the child's claims to support and inheritance from both parents are settled from the start.", "page": "p/marriage-ties-both-parents.html", "belief": "children-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "marriage-public-promise-makes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Marriage is a public promise that makes it harder to walk away during a bad year, and children benefit from adults who stayed.", "page": "p/marriage-public-promise-makes.html", "belief": "children-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "marriage-joins-two-extended", "kind": "claim", "text": "Marriage joins two extended families, so a child of married parents gains 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committed co-parent living elsewhere can supply that without any marriage.", "page": "p/what-children-need-enough.html", "belief": "children-generally-do-best", "draft": false }, { "key": "adults-feel-free-build", "kind": "belief", "text": "Adults should feel free to build their family life around their own happiness rather than around tradition.", "page": "p/adults-feel-free-build.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-family-traditions-were", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many family traditions were built on the assumption that a wife would depend on her husband's income, so they fit poorly now that both partners often work.", "page": "p/many-family-traditions-were.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-stuck-roles-never", "kind": "claim", "text": "People stuck in roles they never chose make resentful partners and distracted parents, which serves no one, including the children.", "page": "p/people-stuck-roles-never.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "whether-marry-have-children", "kind": "claim", "text": "Whether to marry, have children, or live near relatives shapes an adult's whole life, so that choice belongs to the person who has to live with it.", "page": "p/whether-marry-have-children.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "families-exist-mostly-children", "kind": "claim", "text": "Families exist mostly for children and the old, who do not get a vote when the adults decide to arrange things around adult happiness.", "page": "p/families-exist-mostly-children.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "traditions-carry-hard-won", "kind": "claim", "text": "Traditions carry hard-won lessons about what lasts and what does not, and people who discard them tend to relearn those lessons too late.", "page": "p/traditions-carry-hard-won.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "family-organized-around-adults", "kind": "claim", "text": "A family organized around the adults' satisfaction lasts only as long as that satisfaction does, which leaves children and aging relatives exposed when it fades.", "page": "p/family-organized-around-adults.html", "belief": "adults-feel-free-build", "draft": false }, { "key": "simple-life-exists-many", "kind": "belief", "text": "Simple life exists on many planets in our galaxy.", "page": "p/simple-life-exists-many.html", "belief": "simple-life-exists-many", "draft": false }, { "key": "planets-turn-out-orbit", "kind": "claim", "text": "Planets turn out to orbit most stars, and many sit at distances where liquid water can exist, so the settings for life are abundant.", "page": "p/planets-turn-out-orbit.html", "belief": "simple-life-exists-many", "draft": false }, { "key": "life-appeared-earth-soon", "kind": "claim", "text": "Life appeared on Earth soon after the planet cooled enough to allow it, which 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"museums-generally-return-human", "draft": false }, { "key": "communities-receive-objects-back", "kind": "claim", "text": "Communities that receive their objects back from museums often become partners in research, so returning them can expand knowledge instead of ending it.", "page": "p/communities-receive-objects-back.html", "belief": "museums-generally-return-human", "draft": false }, { "key": "descent-people-who-lived", "kind": "claim", "text": "Descent from people who lived long ago is often uncertain, and rival groups sometimes claim the same remains, so a museum that returns them risks handing a people's dead to the wrong community.", "page": "p/descent-people-who-lived.html", "belief": "museums-generally-return-human", "draft": false }, { "key": "museums-keep-human-remains", "kind": "claim", "text": "Museums keep human remains and sacred objects under controlled conditions and make them available to researchers worldwide, while a returned object may be reburied and lost to 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"archaeologists-generally-excavate-important", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should defend our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech.", "page": "p/we-defend-our-fundamental.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "open-dialogue-vital-informed", "kind": "claim", "text": "Open dialogue is vital for informed decision-making and for holding power accountable.", "page": "p/open-dialogue-vital-informed.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "free-exchange-ideas-fosters", "kind": "claim", "text": "The free exchange of ideas fosters creativity, scientific discovery, and cultural growth.", "page": "p/free-exchange-ideas-fosters.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "free-speech-lets-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Free speech lets people express themselves without fear, which preserves personal dignity and self-expression.", "page": "p/free-speech-lets-people.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "societies-strong-protections-speech", "kind": "claim", "text": "Societies with strong protections for speech have historically thrived in liberty and innovation.", "page": "p/societies-strong-protections-speech.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-free-speech-upholds", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending free speech upholds universal principles of liberty and individual dignity.", "page": "p/defending-free-speech-upholds.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-free-speech-encourages", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending free speech encourages accountability and resistance to authoritarianism.", "page": "p/defending-free-speech-encourages.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-free-speech-promotes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending free speech 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"claim", "text": "Defending free speech may allow harmful or false narratives to go unchecked.", "page": "p/defending-free-speech-may.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-free-speech-risks", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending free speech risks perpetuating systemic inequalities by empowering harmful speech.", "page": "p/defending-free-speech-risks.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-free-speech-could", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending free speech could foster division or harm vulnerable populations.", "page": "p/defending-free-speech-could.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-free-speech-may-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending free speech may undermine trust in public institutions if misinformation spreads unchecked.", "page": "p/defending-free-speech-may-2.html", "belief": "we-defend-our-fundamental", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should defend the freedom of religion and the freedom from religion.", "page": "p/we-defend-freedom-religion.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-protects", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion protects personal beliefs and practices from interference by other people or the government.", "page": "p/defending-freedom-religion-protects.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "freedom-religion-allows-diverse", "kind": "claim", "text": "Freedom of and from religion allows diverse religions and worldviews to coexist peacefully.", "page": "p/freedom-religion-allows-diverse.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-prevents", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion prevents the government from imposing or endorsing religious 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"we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-encourages", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion encourages mutual respect and coexistence in diverse societies.", "page": "p/defending-freedom-religion-encourages.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-preserves", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion preserves the basic principle that government stays neutral toward religion.", "page": "p/defending-freedom-religion-preserves.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-means", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion means balancing religious freedoms against secular interests, which can lead to disagreements and legal battles.", "page": "p/defending-freedom-religion-means.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "religious-groups-can-exploit", "kind": "claim", "text": "Religious groups can exploit religious freedoms to justify harmful practices.", "page": "p/religious-groups-can-exploit.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion can blur the line between government neutrality toward religion and government hostility to religion.", "page": "p/defending-freedom-religion-can.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "complete-freedom-religion-could", "kind": "claim", "text": "Complete freedom from religion could marginalize cultural traditions rooted in faith.", "page": "p/complete-freedom-religion-could.html", "belief": "we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "defending-freedom-religion-may", "kind": "claim", "text": "Defending freedom of and from religion may be seen as sidelining religious expression in public life.", 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"we-defend-freedom-religion", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "kind": "belief", "text": "The United States should stop outsourcing and become a manufacturing superpower.", "page": "p/united-states-stop-outsourcing.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "making-critical-goods-home", "kind": "claim", "text": "Making critical goods at home reduces United States dependence on foreign nations.", "page": "p/making-critical-goods-home.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "bringing-manufacturing-home-creates", "kind": "claim", "text": "Bringing manufacturing home creates high-paying jobs and strengthens the middle class.", "page": "p/bringing-manufacturing-home-creates.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "domestic-production-ensures-secure", "kind": "claim", "text": "Domestic production ensures a secure supply of essential items such as medical 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false }, { "key": "curbing-outsourcing-reduces-exploitation", "kind": "claim", "text": "Curbing outsourcing reduces the exploitation of workers in low-wage countries.", "page": "p/curbing-outsourcing-reduces-exploitation.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "manufacturing-revival-promotes-fair", "kind": "claim", "text": "A manufacturing revival promotes fair economic opportunity and reduces wealth gaps.", "page": "p/manufacturing-revival-promotes-fair.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "manufacturing-revival-strengthens-united", "kind": "claim", "text": "A manufacturing revival strengthens the United States economy in a way that benefits all citizens.", "page": "p/manufacturing-revival-strengthens-united.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "domestic-production-often-more", "kind": "claim", "text": "Domestic production is often more expensive because of higher 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"claim", "text": "Domestic manufacturing could raise consumer costs in a way that falls hardest on low-income families.", "page": "p/domestic-manufacturing-could-raise.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "pushing-become-manufacturing-superpower", "kind": "claim", "text": "Pushing to become a manufacturing superpower risks fostering nationalism at the expense of global cooperation.", "page": "p/pushing-become-manufacturing-superpower.html", "belief": "united-states-stop-outsourcing", "draft": false }, { "key": "ranked-choice-voting-produces-2", "kind": "belief", "text": "Ranked-choice voting produces better electoral outcomes than plurality voting.", "page": "p/ranked-choice-voting-produces-2.html", "belief": "ranked-choice-voting-produces-2", "draft": false }, { "key": "ranked-choice-voting-eliminates", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ranked-choice voting eliminates the spoiler effect.", "page": "p/ranked-choice-voting-eliminates.html", "belief": 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"removing-tips-taxable-income", "kind": "claim", "text": "Removing tips from taxable income makes tax filing simpler for tipped workers.", "page": "p/removing-tips-taxable-income.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cutting taxes on workers and exempting tips from tax reduces financial stress for workers whose income is already precarious.", "page": "p/cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-3.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-4", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cutting taxes on workers and exempting tips from tax is consistent with the values of fairness and economic equity.", "page": "p/cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-4.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-5", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cutting taxes on workers and exempting tips from tax helps close the gap between low-income 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"exempting-tips-tax-could", "kind": "claim", "text": "Exempting tips from tax could encourage tax avoidance or fraudulent reporting.", "page": "p/exempting-tips-tax-could.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "workers-industries-without-tips", "kind": "claim", "text": "Workers in industries without tips may see exempting tips from tax as unfair preferential treatment.", "page": "p/workers-industries-without-tips.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "exempting-tips-tax-could-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Exempting tips from tax could disproportionately favor one group of workers over others.", "page": "p/exempting-tips-tax-could-2.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "exempting-tips-tax-may-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Exempting tips from tax may create perceptions of unfairness among workers who do not receive tips.", "page": "p/exempting-tips-tax-may-2.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-8", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cutting taxes on workers and exempting tips from tax may not significantly improve workers' overall financial stability without broader wage reforms.", "page": "p/cutting-taxes-workers-exempting-8.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "even-though-financial-relief", "kind": "claim", "text": "Even though financial relief for workers is a good goal, cutting taxes on workers and exempting tips from tax is the wrong way to reach it, because it could undermine the tax system's equity and fiscal sustainability and create long-term economic problems.", "page": "p/even-though-financial-relief.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "tax-revenue-lost-cutting", "kind": "claim", "text": "The tax revenue lost by cutting taxes on workers and exempting tips may harm public services, and that harm would ultimately fall on the same workers.", "page": "p/tax-revenue-lost-cutting.html", "belief": "workers-get-tax-cuts", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-government-pays-have", "kind": "belief", "text": "When a government pays to have software built for public services, its source code should, by default, be made public for anyone to read.", "page": "p/when-government-pays-have.html", "belief": "when-government-pays-have", "draft": false }, { "key": "taxpayers-paid-software-runs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Taxpayers paid for the software that runs government services, so they should be able to see what it does, in the same way they can read the laws it enforces.", "page": "p/taxpayers-paid-software-runs.html", "belief": "when-government-pays-have", "draft": false }, { "key": "bugs-security-flaws-government", "kind": "claim", "text": "Bugs and security flaws in government software are found faster when its code is public and many outside eyes can look, and a hidden flaw in a tax or benefits system harms real people.", "page": "p/bugs-security-flaws-government.html", "belief": "when-government-pays-have", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-one-government-agency", "kind": "claim", "text": "When one government agency publishes the code for its software, another agency can reuse it instead of paying a vendor to build the same thing again.", "page": "p/when-one-government-agency.html", "belief": "when-government-pays-have", "draft": false }, { "key": "publishing-code-behind-government", "kind": "claim", "text": "Publishing the code behind government software shows attackers exactly where to look, and government systems are targets that cannot afford to give their enemies a head start.", "page": "p/publishing-code-behind-government.html", "belief": "when-government-pays-have", "draft": false }, { "key": "companies-build-software-government", "kind": "claim", "text": "Companies that build software for government often reuse the same code for other clients, and a rule forcing it open shrinks the pool of willing 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"p/single-review-checkpoint-every.html", "belief": "phone-makers-allowed-require", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-every-phone-app", "kind": "claim", "text": "When every phone app must come through the phone maker's reviewed store, the maker can hold all apps to the same privacy and refund rules, so users get the same protections no matter which app they use.", "page": "p/when-every-phone-app.html", "belief": "phone-makers-allowed-require", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-every-phone-app-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "When every phone app comes through one store, the phone maker is answerable for what is on it and can pull a harmful app from every phone as soon as it is discovered.", "page": "p/when-every-phone-app-2.html", "belief": "phone-makers-allowed-require", "draft": false }, { "key": "phone-maker-reviews-apps", "kind": "claim", "text": "A phone maker that reviews apps and also sells its own apps competes with the developers it judges, so it can reject or delay rivals for 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"p/radio-remains-essential-news.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "during-storms-fires-blackouts", "kind": "claim", "text": "During storms, fires, and blackouts, a battery or car radio keeps working after phones die and cell towers go down.", "page": "p/during-storms-fires-blackouts.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "radio-news-free-anyone", "kind": "claim", "text": "Radio news is free to anyone with a cheap receiver, so it serves people who cannot afford a smartphone or a monthly internet bill.", "page": "p/radio-news-free-anyone.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "radio-signals-reach-remote", "kind": "claim", "text": "Radio signals reach remote and rural areas where broadband and cell coverage are weak or missing, so for people living there it is often the only live news they can get.", "page": "p/radio-signals-reach-remote.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "emergency-alerts-now-push", "kind": "claim", "text": "Emergency alerts now push straight to most phones in an area, and that system does not depend on anyone owning a radio.", "page": "p/emergency-alerts-now-push.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "people-without-home-internet", "kind": "claim", "text": "People without home internet can usually still get news from broadcast television, prepaid phones, or free access at public libraries, so radio is seldom their only option.", "page": "p/people-without-home-internet.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "consolidation-station-ownership-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "Consolidation of station ownership has thinned local radio newsrooms, so what comes over the air in a crisis may be national programming rather than news about the listener's own town.", "page": "p/consolidation-station-ownership-has.html", "belief": "radio-remains-essential-news", "draft": false }, { "key": "talk-radio-generally-does", "kind": "belief", "text": "Talk radio generally does more to drive its listeners apart from people who disagree with them than to inform them.", "page": "p/talk-radio-generally-does.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "talk-radio-rewards-host", "kind": "claim", "text": "Talk radio rewards a host who can keep listeners angry for hours, because anger holds an audience better than explanation does.", "page": "p/talk-radio-rewards-host.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "talk-radio-hosts-held", "kind": "claim", "text": "Talk radio hosts are not held to the correction and sourcing standards that newsrooms follow, so a false claim can run for weeks unchallenged.", "page": "p/talk-radio-hosts-held.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "because-talk-radio-host", "kind": "claim", "text": "Because a talk radio host picks which callers get on the air and can cut anyone off, listeners mostly hear the host's side win, which hardens their views instead of informing them.", "page": "p/because-talk-radio-host.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "talk-radio-gives-platform", "kind": "claim", "text": "Talk radio gives a platform to views that mainstream outlets ignore or dismiss, which is exactly the diversity a free press is supposed to allow.", "page": "p/talk-radio-gives-platform.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "talk-radio-explains-public", "kind": "claim", "text": "Talk radio explains public issues in plain, everyday language, which helps listeners who find newspapers and newscasts hard to follow understand what is at stake.", "page": "p/talk-radio-explains-public.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "call-shows-let-ordinary", "kind": "claim", "text": "Call-in shows let ordinary people speak on the air at length and disagree with the host and with each other, and hearing that open disagreement informs listeners in a way a reporter's one-sentence quote does not.", "page": "p/call-shows-let-ordinary.html", "belief": "talk-radio-generally-does", "draft": false }, { "key": "paid-random-rewards-video", "kind": "belief", "text": "Paid random rewards in video games should be regulated the way gambling is.", "page": "p/paid-random-rewards-video.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "paying-money-unknown-prize", "kind": "claim", "text": "Paying money for an unknown prize is the same act as pulling a slot machine lever, and calling it a game feature does not change what it does to the brain.", "page": "p/paying-money-unknown-prize.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "paid-random-rewards-built", "kind": "claim", "text": "Paid random rewards are built into games marketed to children, who are exactly the people gambling laws exist to protect.", "page": "p/paid-random-rewards-built.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "game-makers-tune-odds", "kind": "claim", "text": "Game makers tune the odds and the timing of paid random reward offers to get the most spending out of players, which shows they know they are selling a chance rather than an item.", "page": "p/game-makers-tune-odds.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "players-who-buy-random", "kind": "claim", "text": "Players who buy a random reward in a game always receive something for their money, unlike a bettor who can walk away with nothing, and that difference is the legal core of what gambling means.", "page": "p/players-who-buy-random.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "random-reward-game-same", "kind": "claim", "text": "A random reward in a game is the same kind of purchase as a sealed pack of trading cards or a blind-bag toy, which most places sell freely to children, so putting only the game version under gambling rules would treat the same product differently just because it is digital.", "page": "p/random-reward-game-same.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "gambling-regulation-brings-licensing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Gambling regulation brings licensing, age checks and heavy compliance costs that small studios cannot bear, so treating random rewards in games as gambling would hand the market to the largest companies.", "page": "p/gambling-regulation-brings-licensing.html", "belief": "paid-random-rewards-video", "draft": false }, { "key": "violent-content-video-games", "kind": "belief", "text": "Violent content in video games generally needs no government rules beyond the age ratings the game industry already puts on its products.", "page": "p/violent-content-video-games.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "games-have-become-far", "kind": "claim", "text": "Games have become far more violent and far more common while youth violence in most wealthy countries has not risen along with them, so there is no growing harm for new rules to fix.", "page": "p/games-have-become-far.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "players-can-tell-violence", "kind": "claim", "text": "Players can tell violence in a game from violence in real life, so acting out a fight on a screen does not teach them to fight in the street.", "page": "p/players-can-tell-violence.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "age-ratings-already-tell", "kind": "claim", "text": "Age ratings already tell parents what a game contains, and parents who know their own children are better placed to decide what they can handle than a government office is.", "page": "p/age-ratings-already-tell.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "violent-games-reward-players", "kind": "claim", "text": "Violent games reward players for violent acts over and over across thousands of hours, and repeated rewarded practice is one of the strongest ways people build habits, so the effect on players is too large to leave to an industry-run label.", "page": "p/violent-games-reward-players.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "age-ratings-judge-only", "kind": "claim", "text": "Age ratings judge only the game as it ships, so they say nothing about the violent chat, videos and player-made content children run into during online play, and only outside rules can reach that gap.", "page": "p/age-ratings-judge-only.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-games-now-bought", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most games are now bought and downloaded online, where an age check is often just a birthdate the child types in, a gift card or a shared family account, so industry age ratings do little to keep the most violent games away from children who want them.", "page": "p/most-games-now-bought.html", "belief": "violent-content-video-games", "draft": false }, { "key": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "kind": "belief", "text": "Popular destinations should generally cap the number of tourists they admit.", "page": "p/popular-destinations-generally-cap.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "more-visitors-town-admits", "kind": "claim", "text": "The more visitors a town admits, the more homes are turned into short-term rentals that price local workers out of the neighborhoods they grew up in.", "page": "p/more-visitors-town-admits.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "crowds-wear-down-very", "kind": "claim", "text": "Crowds wear down the very trails, old streets and monuments people come to see, so unlimited visitors destroy the thing being sold.", "page": "p/crowds-wear-down-very.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "town-s-water-roads", "kind": "claim", "text": "A town's water, roads and waste systems can serve only so many people at once, and past that point every extra visitor brings shortages and breakdowns that residents pay for.", "page": "p/town-s-water-roads.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "cap-visitor-numbers-makes", "kind": "claim", "text": "A cap on visitor numbers makes entry scarce, and scarce entry tends to end up with whoever can pay more or book earlier, so ordinary families are the ones shut out.", "page": "p/cap-visitor-numbers-makes.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "tourism-main-income-hotel", "kind": "claim", "text": "Tourism is the main income for hotel workers, guides, drivers and cooks in many places, and every visitor turned away is a paycheck lost.", "page": "p/tourism-main-income-hotel.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "spreading-visitors-off-season", "kind": "claim", "text": "Spreading visitors to off-season months and quieter neighborhoods, and charging more at peak times, fixes crowding without shutting the door.", "page": "p/spreading-visitors-off-season.html", "belief": "popular-destinations-generally-cap", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-people-probably-need", "kind": "belief", "text": "Most people probably need not cut back on their vacation flights for the climate's sake.", "page": "p/most-people-probably-need.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "air-travel-small-slice", "kind": "claim", "text": "Air travel is a small slice of total emissions, and one person flying less changes the total by so little that the sacrifice buys almost nothing.", "page": "p/air-travel-small-slice.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "vacation-flights-people-take", "kind": "claim", "text": "The vacation flights people take now give them rest, time with faraway family and experiences they value for life, and those gains are worth more than the climate harm the flights add.", "page": "p/vacation-flights-people-take.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "cleaner-fuels-better-rules", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cleaner fuels and better rules are what will actually fix aviation, and asking individuals to fly less puts the burden on travelers and lets the industry and governments off the hook.", "page": "p/cleaner-fuels-better-rules.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "single-long-flight-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "A single long flight can outweigh many of a household's other everyday climate efforts, so how often a person flies is not a small choice within one person's life.", "page": "p/single-long-flight-can.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "cleaner-planes-fuels-still", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cleaner planes and fuels are still far from ready at large scale, so for years to come the only way to cut the pollution from vacation flights is for people to take fewer of them.", "page": "p/cleaner-planes-fuels-still.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-many-people-choose", "kind": "claim", "text": "When many people choose to fly less for the climate, airlines and governments respond to what travelers demand, so cutting back on vacation flights is how the larger climate fixes get started.", "page": "p/when-many-people-choose.html", "belief": "most-people-probably-need", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-tax-property-value", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should tax property by the value of the land itself, independent of what is or is not built on it.", "page": "p/we-tax-property-value.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "taxing-land-whether-developed", "kind": "claim", "text": "Taxing land whether or not it is developed encourages efficient land use and discourages holding land for speculation.", "page": "p/taxing-land-whether-developed.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-discourages", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax discourages leaving land idle by creating immediate carrying costs for vacant or underused properties.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-discourages.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-removes", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax removes the incentive to hold prime locations without developing them.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-removes.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-pushes", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax pushes landowners to make the most productive use of their land or sell it to someone who will.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-pushes.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-fair", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax is a fair revenue source because it captures value created by public investment instead of taxing labor or capital.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-fair.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-returns", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax returns land value increases generated by the community to the public that created them.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-returns.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-reduces", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax reduces free-riding by landowners who benefit from public infrastructure without contributing to it.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-reduces.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-creates", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax creates a more economically efficient tax base that causes very little economic waste (deadweight loss).", "page": "p/land-value-tax-creates.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax can lower housing costs by encouraging development of underused land, which increases housing supply.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-can.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-mobilizes", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax mobilizes vacant and underused parcels for development.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-mobilizes.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-reduces-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax reduces the artificial land scarcity that drives up prices.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-reduces-2.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-eliminates", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax eliminates tax penalties on building improvements that add to the housing stock.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-eliminates.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-avoids", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax avoids the distortions found in most other forms of taxation.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-avoids.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-does", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax does not penalize or discourage productive economic activity.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-does.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-cannot", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax cannot be avoided through offshoring or accounting practices.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-cannot.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-aligns", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax aligns private economic incentives with the land use that is best for society.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-aligns.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "under-land-value-tax", "kind": "claim", "text": "Under a land value tax, building new homes or businesses does not raise the owner's tax bill, which can spur construction and renovation.", "page": "p/under-land-value-tax.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "holding-idle-land-costs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Holding idle land costs money under a land value tax, which deters investors from sitting on vacant land waiting for its value to rise.", "page": "p/holding-idle-land-costs.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "much-land-s-value", "kind": "claim", "text": "Much of a land's value comes from the community rather than the owner's efforts, so taxing land value recovers unearned value for public use.", "page": "p/much-land-s-value.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-cannot-hidden-moved", "kind": "claim", "text": "Land cannot be hidden or moved and taxing it does not reduce the supply of land, so a land tax is hard to evade and causes less economic distortion.", "page": "p/land-cannot-hidden-moved.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-provides", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax provides a steady revenue base for local governments to fund services.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-provides.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "accurately-assessing-unimproved-land", "kind": "claim", "text": "Accurately assessing unimproved land value separately from buildings is contentious and technically difficult, which makes a land value tax hard to administer.", "page": "p/accurately-assessing-unimproved-land.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-requires", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax requires sophisticated and ongoing valuation systems.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-requires.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-creates-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax creates potential for assessment disputes and litigation.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-creates-2.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-may", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax may involve prohibitive administrative costs in areas without existing assessment capacity.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-may.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-may-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax may create significant financial hardship for low-income landowners in areas with high land values who have limited cash flow to pay it.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-may-2.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-forces", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax forces farmers near developing areas to intensify production or sell their farmland.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-forces.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-creates-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax creates impossible tax burdens for elderly homeowners on fixed incomes in appreciating neighborhoods.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-creates-3.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-disconnects", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax disconnects tax obligations from ability to pay, particularly for residential owners.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-disconnects.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-risks", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax risks unintended consequences such as rapid gentrification, community displacement, or environmentally harmful overdevelopment.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-risks.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-accelerates", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax accelerates neighborhood turnover and could destroy established communities.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-accelerates.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-creates-4", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax creates pressure to develop natural areas or open spaces that have development potential.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-creates-4.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-may-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax may encourage rushed, poor-quality development to generate immediate income.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-may-3.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-faces", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax faces substantial political obstacles from entrenched interests and from concerns about dramatic shifts in who pays.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-faces.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "resistance-powerful-landowners-makes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Resistance from powerful landowners makes a land value tax hard to enact.", "page": "p/resistance-powerful-landowners-makes.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-faces-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax faces political resistance because it challenges deeply held beliefs about property rights.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-faces-2.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-politically", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax is politically hard to pass because its losses fall heavily on specific groups while its benefits are spread thinly across many people.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-politically.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "mistakes-infrequent-updates-land", "kind": "claim", "text": "Mistakes or infrequent updates in land valuation can lead to unfair taxes or sudden changes in tax bills.", "page": "p/mistakes-infrequent-updates-land.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "rapid-increases-land-value", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rapid increases in land value could produce steep tax hikes that force owners who cannot afford the new tax to sell or move.", "page": "p/rapid-increases-land-value.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "some-regions-have-laws", "kind": "claim", "text": "Some regions have laws requiring uniform property taxes, which complicates a land-only tax.", "page": "p/some-regions-have-laws.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-set", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax set very high could discourage development or investment in some cases.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-set.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-will", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax will likely lower market land values, so current landowners lose some of their wealth.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-will.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-only-one-city", "kind": "claim", "text": "If only one city or region adopts a land value tax, landowners may lobby against local improvements that would raise their land values.", "page": "p/if-only-one-city.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "land-value-tax-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "A land value tax has not been widely adopted in modern times, which suggests that real-world constraints and pushback have kept it rare.", "page": "p/land-value-tax-has.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "harrisburg-pennsylvania-which-taxed", "kind": "claim", "text": "In Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which taxed land at a higher rate than buildings, the number of vacant structures dropped from over 4,200 in 1982 to under 500 by 2001.", "page": "p/harrisburg-pennsylvania-which-taxed.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "harrisburg-s-mayor-credited", "kind": "claim", "text": "Harrisburg's mayor credited the land-focused tax as one key factor in attracting over $1.2 billion in new investment and reversing decades of decline.", "page": "p/harrisburg-s-mayor-credited.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-allentown-pennsylvania-shifted", "kind": "claim", "text": "After Allentown, Pennsylvania shifted to a land-heavy tax, 70% of homeowners got a tax cut and building permits in previously stagnant neighborhoods increased by 32%.", "page": "p/after-allentown-pennsylvania-shifted.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-allentown-voters-approved", "kind": "claim", "text": "After Allentown voters approved taxing land at five times the rate on buildings in the mid-1990s, the city did not need to raise taxes for several years.", "page": "p/after-allentown-voters-approved.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-several-pennsylvania-cities", "kind": "claim", "text": "When several Pennsylvania cities adopted a land-weighted tax, absentee owners of vacant lots shouldered much more of the burden while many homeowners and active businesses saw tax cuts.", "page": "p/when-several-pennsylvania-cities.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "milton-friedman-called-tax", "kind": "claim", "text": "Milton Friedman called a tax on unimproved land the least bad tax.", "page": "p/milton-friedman-called-tax.html", "belief": "we-tax-property-value", "draft": false }, { "key": "imf-oecd-have-supported", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 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"page": "p/term-limits-end-practice.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "term-limits-do-eliminate", "kind": "claim", "text": "Term limits do not eliminate PAC influence, because non-incumbent candidates attract outside spending just as much and the money only shifts toward open-seat races.", "page": "p/term-limits-do-eliminate.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "inexperienced-legislators-more-vulnerable", "kind": "claim", "text": "Inexperienced legislators are more vulnerable to lobbying and staff manipulation, so term limits increase dependence on outside expertise and lobbyist guidance.", "page": "p/inexperienced-legislators-more-vulnerable.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "legislators-serving-final-term", "kind": "claim", "text": "Legislators serving a final term imposed by term limits face fewer accountability constraints and may accept bribes without consequence, so term limits increase the risk of corruption.", "page": "p/legislators-serving-final-term.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "presidential-term-limits-under", "kind": "claim", "text": "Presidential term limits under the 22nd Amendment succeeded in preventing the concentration of executive power, showing that fixed term limits can reduce the incentive to cling to power corruptly.", "page": "p/presidential-term-limits-under.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "cross-state-analysis-u", "kind": "claim", "text": "A cross-state analysis of U.S. governors' term limits found that stricter limits were associated with a lower overall magnitude of corruption, and that shorter tenures impede the formation of extensive corrupt networks.", "page": "p/cross-state-analysis-u.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "term-limited-state-legislatures", "kind": "claim", "text": "Term-limited state legislatures in Michigan, Ohio and Arkansas saw seniority shift to staff rather than legislators, with reduced deliberative capacity and greater dependence on lobbyist briefings for policy expertise.", "page": "p/term-limited-state-legislatures.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-1994-republican-revolution", "kind": "claim", "text": "After the 1994 Republican \"revolution,\" a class of new U.S. House members with ideological purity but weaker institutional experience led to gridlock and ineffective legislation, which cuts against the idea that term limits improve legislative quality.", "page": "p/after-1994-republican-revolution.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "under-mexico-s-no", "kind": "claim", "text": "Under Mexico's no-reelection rule, legislators could not serve consecutive terms, which made them lame ducks with an even higher risk of corruption and weakened their incentive to build a legislative reputation.", "page": "p/under-mexico-s-no.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "theoretical-model-shows-legislators", "kind": "claim", "text": "A theoretical model shows that legislators with known expiration dates have weaker reputational constraints, predicting that moral hazard and corruption increase as a term limit approaches.", "page": "p/theoretical-model-shows-legislators.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "term-limits-increase-polarization", "kind": "claim", "text": "Term limits increase polarization in state legislatures, with larger effects in more professional legislatures, and in term-limited states party committees increased their contributions to candidates, which intensified partisanship.", "page": "p/term-limits-increase-polarization.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "term-limited-state-legislatures-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Term-limited state legislatures show measurably lower corruption conviction rates than states without term limits, after controlling for size and party composition.", "page": "p/term-limited-state-legislatures-2.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "first-term-legislators-commit", "kind": "claim", "text": "First-term legislators commit quid pro quo corruption at lower rates than legislators who have served several terms.", "page": "p/first-term-legislators-commit.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-term-limits-take", "kind": "claim", "text": "After term limits take effect, lobbyist access to legislators decreases rather than increases.", "page": "p/after-term-limits-take.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-five-years-after", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within five years after term limits are put in place, federal corruption convictions decline by 30 to 50 percent.", "page": "p/within-five-years-after.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "first-election-cycle-after", "kind": "claim", "text": "In the first election cycle after term limits are put in place, incumbents' fundraising advantage over challengers narrows by 40 to 60 percent.", "page": "p/first-election-cycle-after.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "term-limited-legislatures-show", "kind": "claim", "text": "Term-limited legislatures show equal or higher corruption rates than legislatures without term limits.", "page": "p/term-limited-legislatures-show.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "lame-duck-legislators-commit", "kind": "claim", "text": "Lame-duck legislators commit corruption at higher rates than first-term members.", "page": "p/lame-duck-legislators-commit.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "lobbyist-influence-pac-contributions", "kind": "claim", "text": "Lobbyist influence or PAC contributions increase disproportionately after term limits take effect.", "page": "p/lobbyist-influence-pac-contributions.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-term-limits-take-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "After term limits take effect, legislative output and quality decline significantly, and other reforms do not make up for the loss.", "page": "p/after-term-limits-take-2.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "mexico-s-experience-under", "kind": "claim", "text": "Mexico's experience under its strict no-reelection rule shows no reduction in corruption.", "page": "p/mexico-s-experience-under.html", "belief": "congressional-term-limits-reduce", "draft": false }, { "key": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "kind": "belief", "text": "Representative civic juries should be convened, online and in person, to deliberate on key legislation.", "page": "p/representative-civic-juries-convened.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "civic-juries-replace-shallow", "kind": "claim", "text": "Civic juries replace shallow opinion polls with deep deliberation.", "page": "p/civic-juries-replace-shallow.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "civic-juries-give-citizens", "kind": "claim", "text": "Civic juries give citizens a way to provide structured input continuously, not only at elections.", "page": "p/civic-juries-give-citizens.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "civic-juries-let-citizens", "kind": "claim", "text": "Civic juries let citizens participate meaningfully whenever they choose to contribute.", "page": "p/civic-juries-let-citizens.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "civic-juries-give-randomly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Civic juries give randomly selected, demographically representative jurors time, expert briefings, and structured deliberation so they can move from gut reactions to informed judgment.", "page": "p/civic-juries-give-randomly.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "civic-juries-make-harder", "kind": "claim", "text": "Civic juries make it harder for elected officials to ignore documented public reasoning.", "page": "p/civic-juries-make-harder.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "online-civic-juries-let", "kind": "claim", "text": "Online civic juries let thousands of people contribute.", "page": "p/online-civic-juries-let.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "online-civic-juries-produce", "kind": "claim", "text": "Online civic 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"page": "p/2019-america-one-room-4.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "ireland-s-2024-referendums", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ireland's 2024 referendums on family definitions failed despite citizen assembly recommendations.", "page": "p/ireland-s-2024-referendums.html", "belief": "representative-civic-juries-convened", "draft": false }, { "key": "true-freedom-requires-balancing", "kind": "belief", "text": "True freedom requires balancing individual liberty with personal responsibility and active civic engagement.", "page": "p/true-freedom-requires-balancing.html", "belief": "true-freedom-requires-balancing", "draft": false }, { "key": "liberty-personal-responsibility-civic", "kind": "claim", "text": "Liberty, personal responsibility and civic engagement each become distorted when pursued on their own.", "page": "p/liberty-personal-responsibility-civic.html", "belief": "true-freedom-requires-balancing", "draft": false }, { "key": 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"Public policy should be driven by data and measurable outcomes rather than by ideology.", "page": "p/public-policy-driven-data.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "policies-measurable-outcomes-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "Policies with measurable outcomes can be corrected when they fail, and policies without them cannot.", "page": "p/policies-measurable-outcomes-can.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "track-record-ideology-driven", "kind": "claim", "text": "The track record of ideology-driven policy, across the political spectrum, is substantially worse than that of evidence-driven alternatives.", "page": "p/track-record-ideology-driven.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "good-policy-ideas-come", "kind": "claim", "text": "Good policy ideas come from all parts of the political spectrum, and filtering ideas by ideology discards them.", "page": "p/good-policy-ideas-come.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-reasoning-behind-policy", "kind": "claim", "text": "When the reasoning behind a policy is laid out openly, with each claim linked to its evidence and the quality of that evidence shown, motivated reasoning becomes visible and can be corrected.", "page": "p/when-reasoning-behind-policy.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "voters-can-only-hold", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voters can only hold officials accountable for outcomes they can measure.", "page": "p/voters-can-only-hold.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "label-evidence-based-regularly", "kind": "claim", "text": "The label \"evidence-based\" is regularly used as a rhetorical weapon to favor some kinds of knowledge over others.", "page": "p/label-evidence-based-regularly.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "most-major-policy-disagreements", "kind": "claim", "text": "Most major policy disagreements are about values rather than facts, and data cannot resolve disputes about values.", "page": "p/most-major-policy-disagreements.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "data-driven-policy-systems", "kind": "claim", "text": "Data-driven policy systems can be captured by the people who generate and control the data.", "page": "p/data-driven-policy-systems.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "measurable-outcomes-create-own", "kind": "claim", "text": "Measurable outcomes create their own distortions, because when a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a good measure (Goodhart's Law).", "page": "p/measurable-outcomes-create-own.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "expert-consensus-has-been", "kind": "claim", "text": "Expert consensus has been wrong on important questions, sometimes 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"page": "p/education-programs-rated-strong.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "police-departments-use-data", "kind": "claim", "text": "Police departments that use data-driven deployment (crime hotspot analysis and predictive resource allocation) achieve measurably better crime reduction per dollar than departments using traditional patrol methods, with effect sizes of 15 to 30 percent in controlled comparisons.", "page": "p/police-departments-use-data.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "cochrane-reviews-meta-analyses", "kind": "claim", "text": "Cochrane Reviews and meta-analyses of pharmaceutical research consistently find that industry-funded studies produce favorable results at two to three times the rate of independent studies of the same treatments.", "page": "p/cochrane-reviews-meta-analyses.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "measuring-policy-has-failed", "kind": "claim", "text": "Measuring that a policy has failed does not by itself get the policy corrected: crime prevention programs such as D.A.R.E., Scared Straight and boot camps for juvenile offenders showed no effect or harmful effects in rigorous evaluations, yet kept running for decades on political popularity.", "page": "p/measuring-policy-has-failed.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-programs-covered-2018", "kind": "claim", "text": "Federal programs covered by the 2018 Evidence Act's evaluation requirements are discontinued or redesigned after poor evaluations at higher rates than comparable programs were before the Act.", "page": "p/federal-programs-covered-2018.html", "belief": "public-policy-driven-data", "draft": false }, { "key": "programs-pre-registered-outcome", "kind": "claim", "text": "Programs with pre-registered outcome metrics show smaller gaps between claimed and independently measured results than programs whose metrics were 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"america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "alternative-u-s-democratic", "kind": "claim", "text": "The alternative to U.S. democratic leadership is not a neutral vacuum but Chinese and Russian influence, which fills the space when the United States retreats from democratic credibility.", "page": "p/alternative-u-s-democratic.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "domestic-democratic-institutions-such", "kind": "claim", "text": "Domestic democratic institutions such as a free press, an independent judiciary, and peaceful transfers of power are what set U.S. leadership claims apart from those of any other powerful country.", "page": "p/domestic-democratic-institutions-such.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "u-s-global-leadership", "kind": "claim", "text": "U.S. global leadership has always coexisted with serious domestic democratic failures without losing its effectiveness.", "page": "p/u-s-global-leadership.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "many-countries-value-u", "kind": "claim", "text": "Many countries that value U.S. partnership do not share or prioritize its democratic values, and do not need to.", "page": "p/many-countries-value-u.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "freedom-house-s-freedom", "kind": "claim", "text": "Freedom House's Freedom in the World 2024 report, covering 195 countries, documents an 18th consecutive year of global democratic decline and finds that authoritarian governments explicitly cite U.S. democratic failures to justify their own practices.", "page": "p/freedom-house-s-freedom.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "pew-research-global-attitudes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Pew Research Global Attitudes surveys from 2021 through 2023 documented measurable declines in allied publics' confidence in U.S. democracy 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"america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "nato-remained-cohesive-through", "kind": "claim", "text": "NATO remained cohesive through Watergate, the Vietnam War, and the Iraq War, all severe blows to U.S. democratic credibility.", "page": "p/nato-remained-cohesive-through.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "roughly-70-u-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Roughly 70% of U.S.-supported transitions to democracy since 1980 have failed or regressed within 10 years.", "page": "p/roughly-70-u-s.html", "belief": "america-strengthen-its-global", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-make-america-dominant", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far.", "page": "p/we-make-america-dominant.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "making-america-dominant-energy", "kind": "claim", "text": "Making America the dominant energy producer would create jobs in energy production, distribution, and infrastructure.", "page": "p/making-america-dominant-energy.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "becoming-dominant-energy-producer", "kind": "claim", "text": "Becoming the dominant energy producer would raise American GDP through domestic and international energy sales.", "page": "p/becoming-dominant-energy-producer.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "dominant-american-energy-production", "kind": "claim", "text": "Dominant American energy production would reduce reliance on foreign oil and energy imports.", "page": "p/dominant-american-energy-production.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "dominant-domestic-energy-production", "kind": "claim", "text": "Dominant domestic energy production would shield the American economy from swings in global energy prices.", "page": "p/dominant-domestic-energy-production.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "energy-exports-dominant-american", "kind": "claim", "text": "Energy exports from a dominant American energy sector would strengthen alliances and weaken adversaries.", "page": "p/energy-exports-dominant-american.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "being-dominant-energy-producer", "kind": "claim", "text": "Being the dominant energy producer allows the United States to control energy pricing and policy.", "page": "p/being-dominant-energy-producer.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "pursuing-energy-dominance-drive", "kind": "claim", "text": "Pursuing energy dominance would drive innovation in renewable energy, batteries, and fossil fuel technologies.", "page": "p/pursuing-energy-dominance-drive.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "energy-dominance-position-united", "kind": "claim", "text": "Energy dominance would position the United States as a leader in the green energy transition.", "page": "p/energy-dominance-position-united.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "american-energy-dominance-built", "kind": "claim", "text": "American energy dominance built on innovation in renewable energy technologies could reduce the world's dependence on fossil fuels.", "page": "p/american-energy-dominance-built.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "american-energy-dominance-provide", "kind": "claim", "text": "American energy dominance would provide global energy stability and reduce energy poverty.", "page": "p/american-energy-dominance-provide.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "american-energy-dominance-strategy", "kind": "claim", "text": "An American energy dominance strategy built on over-reliance on fossil fuels would increase greenhouse gas emissions and worsen climate change.", "page": "p/american-energy-dominance-strategy.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "expanding-energy-extraction-infrastructure", "kind": "claim", "text": "Expanding energy extraction and infrastructure to make America the dominant energy producer would damage the environment.", "page": "p/expanding-energy-extraction-infrastructure.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "flooding-global-markets-u", "kind": "claim", "text": "Flooding global markets with U.S. energy could harm international relationships and destabilize economies that depend on energy exports.", "page": "p/flooding-global-markets-u.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "prioritizing-american-energy-dominance", "kind": "claim", "text": "Prioritizing American energy dominance may harm cooperative global efforts to fight climate change.", "page": "p/prioritizing-american-energy-dominance.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "overproducing-energy-pursuit-american", "kind": "claim", "text": "Overproducing energy in pursuit of American energy dominance could use up non-renewable resources faster than necessary, leaving future generations at a disadvantage.", "page": "p/overproducing-energy-pursuit-american.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "expanding-fossil-fuel-production", "kind": "claim", "text": "Expanding fossil fuel production to achieve American energy dominance is unethical because of the environmental damage it causes.", "page": "p/expanding-fossil-fuel-production.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "building-energy-infrastructure-american", "kind": "claim", "text": "Building energy infrastructure for American energy dominance can displace communities, which raises human rights concerns.", "page": "p/building-energy-infrastructure-american.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "american-energy-dominance-speed", "kind": "claim", "text": "American energy dominance would speed up climate change and the loss of biodiversity, which harms people around the world.", "page": "p/american-energy-dominance-speed.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "economic-benefits-american-energy", "kind": "claim", "text": "The economic benefits of American energy dominance may disproportionately favor corporations over citizens.", "page": "p/economic-benefits-american-energy.html", "belief": "we-make-america-dominant", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-invest-energy-research", "kind": "belief", "text": "America should invest in energy research.", "page": "p/america-invest-energy-research.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "reducing-america-s-dependence", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reducing America's dependence on energy from hostile exporters directly cuts off a funding stream for regimes and groups that finance instability and extremism.", "page": "p/reducing-america-s-dependence.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "mastering-next-generation-energy", "kind": "claim", "text": "Mastering next-generation energy technologies such as fusion, advanced storage and new nuclear positions the United States as the dominant exporter of the technologies that will power the global economy for the rest of this century.", "page": "p/mastering-next-generation-energy.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "energy-research-deserves-higher", "kind": "claim", "text": "Energy research deserves a higher survival priority than other discretionary research budgets during periods of high debt, because its returns directly address two of the largest drains on national resources: military commitments tied to oil-producing regions and the long-term cost of energy itself.", "page": "p/energy-research-deserves-higher.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-government-has-repeatedly", "kind": "claim", "text": "The federal government has repeatedly produced transformative technology through directed investment when the strategic stakes were high and private returns alone could not attract enough capital, as with the Manhattan Project, the Apollo program, DARPA and the interstate highway system.", "page": "p/federal-government-has-repeatedly.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-cannot-responsibly", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States cannot responsibly add new spending programs while national debt as a share of the economy (the debt-to-GDP ratio) is at historically high levels and interest payments consume a growing share of the federal budget.", "page": "p/united-states-cannot-responsibly.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-spending-energy-research", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public spending on energy research may reduce private investment by signaling that government will bear the risk, subsidize incumbent firms, and distort the process of choosing which energy technologies to develop.", "page": "p/public-spending-energy-research.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-energy-research-programs", "kind": "claim", "text": "Federal energy research programs get captured by constituencies and keep funding technologies that have failed commercially, because canceling them is politically costly.", "page": "p/federal-energy-research-programs.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-government-picks-which", "kind": "claim", "text": "When government picks which energy technologies to fund, it freezes the field around the political priorities of the moment instead of letting market competition find the lowest-cost path.", "page": "p/when-government-picks-which.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "historical-returns-public-energy", "kind": "claim", "text": "Historical returns on public energy research investment exceeded cost across multiple technology categories from 1978 to 2020.", "page": "p/historical-returns-public-energy.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "increases-domestic-energy-production", "kind": "claim", "text": "Increases in domestic energy production correlate with improvement in the U.S. trade balance.", "page": "p/increases-domestic-energy-production.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "petrodollar-revenues-flow-into", "kind": "claim", "text": "Petrodollar revenues flow into instability and extremist financing through documented pathways.", "page": "p/petrodollar-revenues-flow-into.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "arpa-e-program-evaluations", "kind": "claim", "text": "ARPA-E program evaluations document that its investment has produced multiple commercially deployed technologies, measured against the dollars invested.", "page": "p/arpa-e-program-evaluations.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "current-national-debt-interest", "kind": "claim", "text": "Current national debt and interest payment projections constrain new discretionary spending.", "page": "p/current-national-debt-interest.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "private-venture-capital-outperforms", "kind": "claim", "text": "Private venture capital outperforms government programs on technology selection accuracy and time to commercialization.", "page": "p/private-venture-capital-outperforms.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "shale-revolution-largest-u", "kind": "claim", "text": "The shale revolution, the largest U.S. energy production increase in history, was driven by private investment and horizontal drilling, not by government research programs.", "page": "p/shale-revolution-largest-u.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "technology-categories-receive-milestone", "kind": "claim", "text": "Technology categories that receive milestone-based federal research funding will reach commercial deployment at higher rates than matched unfunded categories.", "page": "p/technology-categories-receive-milestone.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "private-research-investment-will", "kind": "claim", "text": "Private research investment will visibly retreat from categories announced for public funding, and energy technology progress will be indistinguishable between funded and unfunded categories.", "page": "p/private-research-investment-will.html", "belief": "america-invest-energy-research", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-give-our-outdated", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should give our outdated weapons to democratic allies trying to defend their territory.", "page": "p/we-give-our-outdated.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-prevent-genocide-protect", "kind": "claim", "text": "We should prevent genocide and protect civilian populations by improving our allies' defense, when the benefit to our ally is much greater than the value of the outdated equipment.", "page": "p/we-prevent-genocide-protect.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-support-democracies-under", "kind": "claim", "text": "We should support democracies under siege when doing so deters future aggression and reinforces international norms without requiring significant new spending.", "page": "p/we-support-democracies-under.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "surplus-defense-systems-donated", "kind": "claim", "text": "Surplus defense systems should be donated when responsible local actors can use them to uphold sovereignty and minimize civilian harm.", "page": "p/surplus-defense-systems-donated.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-give-military-aid", "kind": "claim", "text": "We should not give military aid to an ally when the symbolic or strategic consequences, such as provoking a nuclear power, pose a greater risk than the benefits to that ally.", "page": "p/we-give-military-aid.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-intervene-foreign-wars", "kind": "claim", "text": "We should not intervene in foreign wars unless there is direct evidence that our aid will not prolong the conflict or cause civilian blowback.", "page": "p/we-intervene-foreign-wars.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "exporting-weapons-without-long", "kind": "claim", "text": "Exporting weapons without long-term accountability plans is unwise because those weapons may later fuel instability or repression.", "page": "p/exporting-weapons-without-long.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "russian-war-crimes-ukraine", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russian war crimes in Ukraine have been documented.", "page": "p/russian-war-crimes-ukraine.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "u-s-military-aid", "kind": "claim", "text": "U.S. military aid has been effective in past conflicts, such as the WWII Lend-Lease program.", "page": "p/u-s-military-aid.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "weapons-sent-conflict-zones", "kind": "claim", "text": "Weapons sent to conflict zones have been reported diverted from their intended recipients.", "page": "p/weapons-sent-conflict-zones.html", "belief": "we-give-our-outdated", "draft": false }, { "key": "strong-america-good-planet", "kind": "belief", "text": "A strong America is good for the planet.", "page": "p/strong-america-good-planet.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "credible-u-s-deterrence", "kind": "claim", "text": "Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan.", "page": "p/credible-u-s-deterrence.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "u-s-military-economic", "kind": "claim", "text": "U.S. military and economic power was decisive in defeating the three totalitarian projects of the 20th century: Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and, at the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union.", "page": "p/u-s-military-economic.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "unlike-earlier-dominant-powers", "kind": "claim", "text": "Unlike earlier dominant powers, the United States has not annexed foreign territory to expand its own borders after its wars, and its postwar goals have centered on market access and regional stability rather than colonization.", "page": "p/unlike-earlier-dominant-powers.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-united-states-pulls", "kind": "claim", "text": "When the United States pulls back from a region, rival authoritarian powers rather than peace have historically filled the vacuum, as with Russian and Iranian expansion into the space left by reduced U.S. presence in Syria.", "page": "p/when-united-states-pulls.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "interventions-justified-u-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Interventions justified by U.S. strength have repeatedly produced long-term instability instead of the promised order, as in Vietnam, the 2003 Iraq War, and the 2011 Libya intervention.", "page": "p/interventions-justified-u-s.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "preserve-regional-order-united", "kind": "claim", "text": "To preserve regional order, the United States has armed, funded, or diplomatically shielded authoritarian governments against their own populations, such as Gulf monarchies and Cold War-era Latin American juntas.", "page": "p/preserve-regional-order-united.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "sustained-trillion-dollar-scale", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sustained, trillion-dollar-scale U.S. global military commitments compete directly with domestic investment in infrastructure, health care, and education.", "page": "p/sustained-trillion-dollar-scale.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "u-s-backed-security", "kind": "claim", "text": "The U.S.-backed security order is one contested cause, alongside nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, of the historically unusual absence of any direct war between great powers since 1945.", "page": "p/u-s-backed-security.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "u-s-navy-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "The U.S. Navy has patrolled major global shipping lanes for decades, a public good widely credited with supporting globalization and poverty reduction.", "page": "p/u-s-navy-has.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-1953-u-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "After 1953, a U.S.-protected democratic South Korea and a famine-prone autocratic North Korea diverged sharply on every major human-development measure.", "page": "p/after-1953-u-s.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "2003-u-s-intervention", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq destabilized the region and contributed to the rise of ISIS, with death-toll estimates ranging widely, from roughly 200,000 documented violent deaths (Iraq Body Count) to over 650,000 excess deaths (2006 Lancet study).", "page": "p/2003-u-s-intervention.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "declassified-records-document-cia", "kind": "claim", "text": "Declassified records document CIA funding and training of Afghan Mujahideen fighters in the 1980s, a program that contributed to the conditions from which Al-Qaeda later emerged.", "page": "p/declassified-records-document-cia.html", "belief": "strong-america-good-planet", "draft": false }, { "key": "homelessness-crime-low-mass", "kind": "belief", "text": "Homelessness, crime, and low mass transit use in cities like Denver are holding back urban density.", "page": "p/homelessness-crime-low-mass.html", "belief": "homelessness-crime-low-mass", "draft": false }, { "key": "high-rates-homelessness-crime", "kind": "claim", "text": "High rates of homelessness and crime in downtown Denver have increased commercial vacancies, making urban living less attractive and working against efforts to promote density.", "page": "p/high-rates-homelessness-crime.html", "belief": "homelessness-crime-low-mass", "draft": false }, { "key": "students-failing-schools-able", "kind": "belief", "text": "Students in failing schools should be able to exercise school choice.", "page": "p/students-failing-schools-able.html", "belief": "students-failing-schools-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "fair-poor-kids-have", "kind": "claim", "text": "It is not fair that poor kids have no option but to go to failing schools.", "page": "p/fair-poor-kids-have.html", "belief": "students-failing-schools-able", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "kind": "belief", "text": "America should encourage legal immigration.", "page": "p/america-encourage-legal-immigration.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "working-legal-immigration-system", "kind": "claim", "text": "A working legal immigration system lets America turn its unmatched worldwide pull on ambitious people into founders, workers, and citizens.", "page": "p/working-legal-immigration-system.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-streamline-its-legal", "kind": "claim", "text": "America should streamline its legal immigration system to recruit and retain highly skilled workers, because every engineer, physician, or founder turned away by backlogs and process friction is productive capacity transferred directly to competitor economies.", "page": "p/america-streamline-its-legal.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "encouraging-legal-immigration-half", "kind": "claim", "text": "Encouraging legal immigration is half of ending illegal immigration, because a generous, working legal pathway and a secure border work together rather than replace each other: when the legal line actually moves, migrants join it and enforcement regains public legitimacy.", "page": "p/encouraging-legal-immigration-half.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "welcoming-best-brightest-international", "kind": "claim", "text": "Welcoming the best and brightest international students to American universities benefits America, because those who stay found companies and file patents and those who return home carry American ties, training, and norms with them.", "page": "p/welcoming-best-brightest-international.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "native-birth-rates-below", "kind": "claim", "text": "With native birth rates below replacement, legal immigration is the main policy tool that keeps the workforce growing, the dependency ratio manageable, and entitlement programs solvent.", "page": "p/native-birth-rates-below.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "increased-labor-supply-immigration", "kind": "claim", "text": "Increased labor supply from immigration can depress wages and employment for native workers in directly exposed occupations, particularly workers without a high school degree, and for earlier immigrant groups, who are the closest labor-market substitutes for new arrivals.", "page": "p/increased-labor-supply-immigration.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "first-generation-immigrants-low", "kind": "claim", "text": "First-generation immigrants with low education levels impose net fiscal costs on state and local governments for schooling and health services, and those costs land on specific communities even where the long-run federal ledger is positive.", "page": "p/first-generation-immigrants-low.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "pace-admissions-can-outrun", "kind": "claim", "text": "The pace of admissions can outrun the capacity of housing, schools, and civic institutions to absorb newcomers, and that strain erodes the public support any durable immigration policy depends on.", "page": "p/pace-admissions-can-outrun.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "nearly-half-fortune-500", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nearly half of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children.", "page": "p/nearly-half-fortune-500.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "long-run-fiscal-contribution", "kind": "claim", "text": "The long-run fiscal contribution of the average recent immigrant is positive, and the second generation is among the strongest net contributors of any group.", "page": "p/long-run-fiscal-contribution.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "percentage-point-increase-share", "kind": "claim", "text": "A percentage-point increase in the share of immigrant college graduates measurably raises patents per capita.", "page": "p/percentage-point-increase-share.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "international-students-contribute-tens", "kind": "claim", "text": "International students contribute tens of billions of dollars per year to the U.S. economy and support hundreds of thousands of jobs.", "page": "p/international-students-contribute-tens.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "during-bracero-era-expansions", "kind": "claim", "text": "During the Bracero era, expansions of the legal guest-worker channel coincided with sharp declines in unauthorized crossings, and ending the program coincided with their rebound.", "page": "p/during-bracero-era-expansions.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "first-generation-immigrants-especially", "kind": "claim", "text": "First-generation immigrants, especially those with less than a high school education, are a net fiscal cost at the state and local level.", "page": "p/first-generation-immigrants-especially.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "reanalysis-mariel-boatlift-finds", "kind": "claim", "text": "A reanalysis of the Mariel boatlift finds wage declines for the least-educated native workers in the receiving labor market.", "page": "p/reanalysis-mariel-boatlift-finds.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "immigration-concentrates-population-growth", "kind": "claim", "text": "Immigration concentrates population growth in metro areas where housing supply is constrained, adding pressure to housing costs.", "page": "p/immigration-concentrates-population-growth.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "consensus-estimates-find-immigration", "kind": "claim", "text": "Consensus estimates find that immigration's overall effect on native wages is small, and that the effect it does have falls mainly on prior immigrants and workers without a high school degree.", "page": "p/consensus-estimates-find-immigration.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "countries-expand-streamlined-skilled", "kind": "claim", "text": "Countries that expand streamlined skilled-immigration systems, such as Canada's Express Entry and Australia's points system, will capture startups and researchers that U.S. process friction turns away.", "page": "p/countries-expand-streamlined-skilled.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "u-s-metro-areas", "kind": "claim", "text": "U.S. metro areas receiving larger legal immigrant inflows will show worse native wage and employment trends than comparable metros, after standard controls.", "page": "p/u-s-metro-areas.html", "belief": "america-encourage-legal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "kind": "belief", "text": "America should streamline the system to recruit and retain highly skilled workers.", "page": "p/america-streamline-system-recruit.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "more-smart-people-america", "kind": "claim", "text": "The more smart people America can attract, the better its future, because highly skilled immigrants raise innovation, productivity, and the tax base, and each one recruited here is one not building a competitor's economy.", "page": "p/more-smart-people-america.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "highly-skilled-immigrants-create", "kind": "claim", "text": "Highly skilled immigrants create jobs by founding firms, filing patents, and expanding demand for the workers around them, so they complement American workers far more than they replace them.", "page": "p/highly-skilled-immigrants-create.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-educates-many-world", "kind": "claim", "text": "America educates many of the world's best in its own universities and then makes them leave when their visas run out, which trains a competitor's workforce at American institutions, and the fix is to grant a green card along with the advanced degree.", "page": "p/america-educates-many-world.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "canada-australia-united-kingdom", "kind": "claim", "text": "Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom run faster and clearer skilled immigration systems and are capturing founders and researchers whom American process friction turns away, so in the competition for mobile talent the slow system loses by default.", "page": "p/canada-australia-united-kingdom.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "employment-based-green-card", "kind": "claim", "text": "Employment-based green card waits stretch past a decade for applicants from large countries, pushing settled, employed, tax-paying skilled workers to give up on America mid-career, so the system fails to retain the workers it recruits.", "page": "p/employment-based-green-card.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "fair-only-engineers-programmers", "kind": "claim", "text": "It is not fair that only engineers and programmers must face immigrant competition through H-1B visas while other trades, such as lawyers, doctors, and actors, have kept immigrants out through licensing barriers, so streamlining would concentrate immigrant competition on the professions least protected from it.", "page": "p/fair-only-engineers-programmers.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "frictionless-foreign-recruitment-reduces", "kind": "claim", "text": "Frictionless foreign recruitment reduces employers' incentive to train and develop American workers into the same roles, letting the domestic skills pipeline wither behind an imported one.", "page": "p/frictionless-foreign-recruitment-reduces.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "majority-america-s-billion", "kind": "claim", "text": "A majority of America's billion-dollar startups have an immigrant founder or co-founder.", "page": "p/majority-america-s-billion.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "increases-immigrant-college-graduate", "kind": "claim", "text": "Increases in the immigrant college-graduate share measurably raise patents per capita.", "page": "p/increases-immigrant-college-graduate.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "employment-based-green-card-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Employment-based green card backlogs exceed a million applicants, with projected waits measured in decades for Indian nationals.", "page": "p/employment-based-green-card-2.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "canada-s-express-entry", "kind": "claim", "text": "Canada's Express Entry system processes skilled applications in months, and Toronto's technology workforce grew rapidly in the years when U.S. visa friction rose.", "page": "p/canada-s-express-entry.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "high-shares-u-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "High shares of U.S. STEM doctorates are earned by international students, many of whom leave because there is no visa pathway for them.", "page": "p/high-shares-u-s.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "multiple-years-largest-h", "kind": "claim", "text": "In multiple years the largest H-1B employers were outsourcing staffing firms paying near the prevailing-wage minimum.", "page": "p/multiple-years-largest-h.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "firm-level-lottery-studies", "kind": "claim", "text": "Firm-level lottery studies find that winning H-1B visas produces little of the claimed employment growth at winning firms, which is consistent with some substitution for native workers.", "page": "p/firm-level-lottery-studies.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "foreign-trained-physicians-must", "kind": "claim", "text": "Foreign-trained physicians must repeat residency and foreign lawyers face bar-admission barriers, while no equivalent occupational shield exists for software engineers.", "page": "p/foreign-trained-physicians-must.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "research-finds-firms-use", "kind": "claim", "text": "Research finds that firms use skilled visas partly to replace older incumbent technical workers, not only to fill shortages.", "page": "p/research-finds-firms-use.html", "belief": "america-streamline-system-recruit", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-reform-its-immigration", "kind": "belief", "text": "America should reform its immigration laws.", "page": "p/america-reform-its-immigration.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "country-needs-enforceable-borders", "kind": "claim", "text": "A country needs enforceable borders and workable immigration law to keep its sovereignty, and a system of lotteries, decades-long backlogs, and tolerated illegality fails that test, so the law itself needs reform and not just enforcement.", "page": "p/country-needs-enforceable-borders.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "anyone-who-believes-market", "kind": "claim", "text": "For anyone who believes in market competition, reforming immigration law to increase competition at the top of the labor market, where wages and opportunities are already concentrated, is a more consistent application of that belief than concentrating competition at the bottom.", "page": "p/anyone-who-believes-market.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "reforming-immigration-law-so", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reforming immigration law so that work comes into America instead of being outsourced would keep the jobs, production, taxes, and consumer spending inside the country, since the same global labor force does the work either way.", "page": "p/reforming-immigration-law-so.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "immigration-reform-written-billionaires", "kind": "claim", "text": "An immigration reform written by billionaires who have embraced layoffs and outsourcing would leave Americans worse off than doing nothing, because whoever writes the bill decides who bears the competition, and the best-funded voices at the table profit from cheap labor.", "page": "p/immigration-reform-written-billionaires.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "changing-america-s-immigration", "kind": "claim", "text": "Changing America's immigration laws risks deepening divisions and economic inequality, because a badly designed or poorly implemented change can entrench the very problems it claims to fix.", "page": "p/changing-america-s-immigration.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "immigration-s-measured-wage", "kind": "claim", "text": "Immigration's measured wage effects fall mainly on workers without a high school degree and on earlier immigrants, who are the closest substitutes for new low-wage arrivals.", "page": "p/immigration-s-measured-wage.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "increases-share-immigrants-who", "kind": "claim", "text": "Increases in the share of immigrants who are college graduates measurably raise patents per capita.", "page": "p/increases-share-immigrants-who.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "countries-skills-weighted-selection", "kind": "claim", "text": "Countries with skills-weighted selection, such as Canada and Australia, sustain broader public support for immigration than the United States does.", "page": "p/countries-skills-weighted-selection.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "natural-experiment-studies-beginning", "kind": "claim", "text": "Natural-experiment studies, beginning with the 1990 Mariel study, find minimal effects on native wages even from large low-skill immigrant inflows, which weakens the claim that the mix of immigrants drives inequality.", "page": "p/natural-experiment-studies-beginning.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "1986-immigration-reform-control", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act delivered legalization while its enforcement provisions went largely unrealized, the standard case of a reform carrying out only one side of its bargain.", "page": "p/1986-immigration-reform-control.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "business-coalitions-materially-shape", "kind": "claim", "text": "Business coalitions materially shape the visa provisions in immigration reform legislation, according to lobbying disclosures around each major reform attempt.", "page": "p/business-coalitions-materially-shape.html", "belief": "america-reform-its-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "kind": "belief", "text": "America should end illegal immigration.", "page": "p/america-end-illegal-immigration.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-either-change-its", "kind": "claim", "text": "America should either change its immigration laws or enforce them, because keeping laws on the books that go unenforced destroys the rule of law, public trust, and eventually the country itself.", "page": "p/america-either-change-its.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "country-must-control-who", "kind": "claim", "text": "A country must control who enters across its border, or no immigration law, generous or strict, means anything.", "page": "p/country-must-control-who.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-support-generous-legal", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public support for a generous legal immigration system depends on people believing the system is under control, so ending illegal immigration is the political precondition for encouraging legal immigration.", "page": "p/public-support-generous-legal.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "illegal-immigration-sustains-shadow", "kind": "claim", "text": "Illegal immigration sustains a shadow labor market in which employers pay below-legal wages under below-legal conditions, undercutting lawful workers and rewarding law-breaking employers over honest ones.", "page": "p/illegal-immigration-sustains-shadow.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "illegal-migration-channel-run", "kind": "claim", "text": "The illegal migration channel is run by smugglers and traffickers and leaves people in a status that can be exploited, so ending it protects migrants themselves more than almost anyone else.", "page": "p/illegal-migration-channel-run.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "ending-illegal-immigration-abruptly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ending illegal immigration abruptly, without a legal replacement channel, would shrink industries such as agriculture, construction, and elder care that run on unauthorized labor today, and would raise prices before any offsetting adjustment.", "page": "p/ending-illegal-immigration-abruptly.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "slogan-end-illegal-immigration", "kind": "claim", "text": "The slogan \"end illegal immigration\" is too vague to endorse, because enforcement only, legalizing the settled population, and expanding legal channels would each technically end it, and endorsing the slogan without choosing among them gives cover to versions that simply shrink all immigration.", "page": "p/slogan-end-illegal-immigration.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "unauthorized-population-has-stood", "kind": "claim", "text": "The unauthorized population has stood between ten and twelve million for roughly two decades, a standing breach of law at population scale.", "page": "p/unauthorized-population-has-stood.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "studies-state-level-mandatory", "kind": "claim", "text": "Studies of state-level mandatory E-Verify laws find measurable declines in unauthorized employment and presence where hiring is actually policed.", "page": "p/studies-state-level-mandatory.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "during-bracero-era-expansion", "kind": "claim", "text": "During the Bracero era, expansion of the legal channel coincided with a collapse in unauthorized crossings, and the program's termination coincided with their rebound.", "page": "p/during-bracero-era-expansion.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "migrant-deaths-along-border", "kind": "claim", "text": "Migrant deaths along the border number in the hundreds each year, and smuggling fees run to thousands of dollars per crossing.", "page": "p/migrant-deaths-along-border.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "roughly-four-ten-crop", "kind": "claim", "text": "Roughly four in ten crop farmworkers lack work authorization.", "page": "p/roughly-four-ten-crop.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "border-militarization-1990s-onward", "kind": "claim", "text": "Border militarization from the 1990s onward interrupted circular migration and increased permanent unauthorized settlement, the opposite of its goal.", "page": "p/border-militarization-1990s-onward.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "jurisdictions-pair-employment-verification", "kind": "claim", "text": "Jurisdictions that pair employment verification with accessible legal channels will show falling unauthorized presence and improving shadow-sector wages together.", "page": "p/jurisdictions-pair-employment-verification.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "demonstration-anywhere-workplace-enforcement", "kind": "claim", "text": "A demonstration, anywhere, that workplace enforcement plus expanded legal channels drove an unauthorized population toward zero without a humanitarian or economic catastrophe would strengthen the case for ending illegal immigration.", "page": "p/demonstration-anywhere-workplace-enforcement.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "causal-evidence-falling-supply", "kind": "claim", "text": "Causal evidence that a falling supply of unauthorized labor raised wages and conditions in shadow-market sectors, rather than eliminating the work, would strengthen the case for ending illegal immigration.", "page": "p/causal-evidence-falling-supply.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "enforcement-spending-will-keep", "kind": "claim", "text": "Enforcement spending will keep rising while the unauthorized population and sectoral dependence stay flat and harm measures such as deaths and smuggling fees climb.", "page": "p/enforcement-spending-will-keep.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "sustained-evidence-every-tried", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sustained evidence that every tried means of ending illegal immigration raises the human and economic toll while the population holds steady would weaken the case for ending it, suggesting the goal works only as a slogan.", "page": "p/sustained-evidence-every-tried.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "evidence-sectoral-collapse-price", "kind": "claim", "text": "Evidence that sectoral collapse and price shocks from withdrawing unauthorized labor exceed the rule-of-law and worker-protection gains would weaken the case for ending illegal immigration.", "page": "p/evidence-sectoral-collapse-price.html", "belief": "america-end-illegal-immigration", "draft": false }, { "key": "america-grow-one-billion", "kind": "belief", "text": "America should grow to one billion citizens.", "page": "p/america-grow-one-billion.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "once-easy-productivity-gains", "kind": "claim", "text": "Once easy productivity gains are used up, long-term U.S. economic and military competition with China is limited by population size, because the U.S. can raise output per worker only so far, and beyond that ceiling a country's total output tracks the size of its workforce.", "page": "p/once-easy-productivity-gains.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "because-united-states-already", "kind": "claim", "text": "Because the United States is already pursuing productivity gains aggressively, further U.S. GDP growth increasingly depends on growing the working-age population.", "page": "p/because-united-states-already.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "population-advantage-was-decisive", "kind": "claim", "text": "A population advantage was decisive in America's economic and military dominance over the Axis powers in World War II, which suggests population scale remains strategically decisive today.", "page": "p/population-advantage-was-decisive.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "continental-united-states-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "The continental United States has enough land to support roughly a billion residents at population densities still below Germany's or the European Union's today.", "page": "p/continental-united-states-has.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "current-u-s-agricultural", "kind": "claim", "text": "Current U.S. agricultural export volumes indicate the country could feed tens of millions of additional residents today without changing farming practices, and far more with efficiency gains.", "page": "p/current-u-s-agricultural.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "integrating-new-residents-now", "kind": "claim", "text": "Integrating new residents now, while the United States still holds a clear economic lead over China and India, will be politically and socially easier than doing so after that lead narrows.", "page": "p/integrating-new-residents-now.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-major-u-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every major U.S. immigrant wave (Irish, Polish, Italian) took roughly a generation to fully integrate, so large-scale U.S. population growth should start well before the population gap with China becomes decisive.", "page": "p/every-major-u-s.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "because-growing-u-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Because growing the U.S. population to one billion would come from people voluntarily choosing to move to America rather than from coercion or annexation, it would expand American influence without the human-rights costs China and Russia incur to expand theirs.", "page": "p/because-growing-u-s.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "shared-national-project-reaching", "kind": "claim", "text": "A shared national project of reaching one billion U.S. citizens could give the country a unifying long-term goal that cuts across the current partisan divide.", "page": "p/shared-national-project-reaching.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "rapid-u-s-population", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rapid U.S. population growth toward one billion would strain housing, transportation, water, and other infrastructure faster than the United States could build capacity to match it.", "page": "p/rapid-u-s-population.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "integrating-hundreds-millions-new", "kind": "claim", "text": "Integrating hundreds of millions of new U.S. residents on a roughly 20-year timeline risks cultural fragmentation rather than assimilation.", "page": "p/integrating-hundreds-millions-new.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "tripling-u-s-population", "kind": "claim", "text": "Tripling the U.S. population would substantially increase national carbon emissions, water consumption, and land conversion, worsening America's environmental footprint.", "page": "p/tripling-u-s-population.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "large-influx-new-workers", "kind": "claim", "text": "A large influx of new workers would push down wages for existing lower- and middle-income American workers, at least in the near term.", "page": "p/large-influx-new-workers.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "western-u-s-states", "kind": "claim", "text": "Western U.S. states already face documented water scarcity, such as the sustained overallocation of the Colorado River basin, and a much larger population would make that shortage worse.", "page": "p/western-u-s-states.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "case-growing-america-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "The case for growing America to one billion citizens assumes GDP and population size are the primary measures of national power, but technological, institutional, and soft-power advantages, which do not require demographic transformation, may matter more.", "page": "p/case-growing-america-one.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "building-housing-infrastructure-roughly", "kind": "claim", "text": "Building housing and infrastructure for roughly 700 million additional U.S. residents may not be economically or logistically achievable on any timeline.", "page": "p/building-housing-infrastructure-roughly.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "1938-united-states-had", "kind": "claim", "text": "By 1938 the United States had roughly 130 million people to Germany's roughly 80 million, and U.S. GDP exceeded the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, and Italy, though population advantage is one contested factor among several (industrial capacity, geography, timing of entry) in America's World War II dominance.", "page": "p/1938-united-states-had.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "continental-united-states-has-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "The continental United States has roughly 110 people per square mile, versus roughly 300 for the European Union, which remains a net food exporter at that density.", "page": "p/continental-united-states-has-2.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-exports-roughly", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States exports roughly a quarter of what it grows, and a widely cited estimate suggests it could feed well over 400 million people by consuming domestically what it now exports, before counting any efficiency gains.", "page": "p/united-states-exports-roughly.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "colorado-river-system-serving", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Colorado River system serving seven Western states has experienced sustained overallocation and multi-year drought stress.", "page": "p/colorado-river-system-serving.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "studies-disagree-immigration-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Studies disagree on immigration's wage effects: some, such as George Borjas's, find measurable wage suppression for workers who are close substitutes for new immigrants, while others, such as David Card's and Giovanni Peri's, find minimal or no effect on average native-born wages.", "page": "p/studies-disagree-immigration-s.html", "belief": "america-grow-one-billion", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-cannot-stand-while", "kind": "belief", "text": "We cannot stand by while cultures are subjected to genocide, as exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.", "page": "p/we-cannot-stand-while.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "un-documentation-shows-russian", "kind": "claim", "text": "UN documentation shows that Russian forces in Ukraine have committed war crimes, including systematic attacks on civilians, mass graves and torture, and these crimes require a response.", "page": "p/un-documentation-shows-russian.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russia-s-systematic-destruction", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russia's systematic destruction of Ukrainian culture shows an intent to commit genocide.", "page": "p/russia-s-systematic-destruction.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-other-nations-stand", "kind": "claim", "text": "If other nations stand by while Russia attacks Ukraine, other authoritarian states that are watching will be encouraged to launch similar attacks.", "page": "p/if-other-nations-stand.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "international-law-obligates-nations", "kind": "claim", "text": "International law obligates nations to respond to genocide.", "page": "p/international-law-obligates-nations.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "ukraine-has-shown-capability", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ukraine has shown the capability and will to resist Russia, so helping it defend itself does not impose an outside solution.", "page": "p/ukraine-has-shown-capability.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "intervening-ukraine-risks-escalation", "kind": "claim", "text": "Intervening in Ukraine risks escalation into a nuclear conflict.", "page": "p/intervening-ukraine-risks-escalation.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "whether-russia-s-actions", "kind": "claim", "text": "Whether Russia's actions in Ukraine legally count as genocide is disputed by experts.", "page": "p/whether-russia-s-actions.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "economic-cost-supporting-ukraine", "kind": "claim", "text": "The economic cost of supporting Ukraine strains the nations paying for it.", "page": "p/economic-cost-supporting-ukraine.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "past-foreign-interventions-often", "kind": "claim", "text": "Past foreign interventions often failed and produced unintended consequences.", "page": "p/past-foreign-interventions-often.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "un-human-rights-council", "kind": "claim", "text": "UN Human Rights Council reports have documented systematic Russian attacks on civilians in Ukraine.", "page": "p/un-human-rights-council.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "osce-has-documented-cultural", "kind": "claim", "text": "The OSCE has documented cultural sites destroyed in Ukraine.", "page": "p/osce-has-documented-cultural.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "international-criminal-court-investigating", "kind": "claim", "text": "The International Criminal Court is investigating crimes against humanity in Ukraine.", "page": "p/international-criminal-court-investigating.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "satellite-imagery-shows-civilian", "kind": "claim", "text": "Satellite imagery shows that civilian infrastructure in Ukraine was deliberately targeted.", "page": "p/satellite-imagery-shows-civilian.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russia-has-systematically-targeted", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian language and cultural institutions.", "page": "p/russia-has-systematically-targeted.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russia-has-deported-ukrainian", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russia has deported Ukrainian children to Russia on a mass scale.", "page": "p/russia-has-deported-ukrainian.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russian-forces-have-destroyed", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russian forces have destroyed Ukrainian historical monuments and museums.", "page": "p/russian-forces-have-destroyed.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russian-forces-carried-out", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russian forces carried out the Bucha massacre and similar atrocities.", "page": "p/russian-forces-carried-out.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russian-forces-have-carried", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russian forces have carried out systematic torture and rape in Ukraine.", "page": "p/russian-forces-have-carried.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "russian-officials-have-denied", "kind": "claim", "text": "Russian officials have denied that a Ukrainian national identity exists.", "page": "p/russian-officials-have-denied.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "putin-s-writings-claim", "kind": "claim", "text": "Putin's writings claim that Ukraine is not a real nation.", "page": "p/putin-s-writings-claim.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "un-has-confirmed-more", "kind": "claim", "text": "The UN has confirmed more than 10,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine and millions of people displaced.", "page": "p/un-has-confirmed-more.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "unesco-has-recorded-more", "kind": "claim", "text": "UNESCO has recorded more than 300 heritage sites damaged or destroyed in Ukraine.", "page": "p/unesco-has-recorded-more.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "more-than-70-percent", "kind": "claim", "text": "More than 70 percent of Ukraine's energy infrastructure was destroyed in the winter of 2022 to 2023.", "page": "p/more-than-70-percent.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "ukraine-successfully-defended-kyiv", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ukraine successfully defended Kyiv and Kharkiv and recaptured territory.", "page": "p/ukraine-successfully-defended-kyiv.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "donor-nations-have-committed", "kind": "claim", "text": "Donor nations have committed about $200 billion to Ukraine, a significant sum that is still less than 1 percent of their GDP.", "page": "p/donor-nations-have-committed.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "legal-scholars-disagree-about", "kind": "claim", "text": "Legal scholars disagree about whether Russia's actions meet the legal definition of genocide.", "page": "p/legal-scholars-disagree-about.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-nations-has-formally", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United Nations has not formally declared Russia's actions in Ukraine a genocide.", "page": "p/united-nations-has-formally.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "some-experts-dispute-russia", "kind": "claim", "text": "Some experts dispute that Russia intends to destroy the Ukrainian people in whole or in part.", "page": "p/some-experts-dispute-russia.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "past-foreign-interventions-iraq", "kind": "claim", "text": "Past foreign interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya were failures.", "page": "p/past-foreign-interventions-iraq.html", "belief": "we-cannot-stand-while", "draft": false }, { "key": "we-keep-men-out", "kind": "belief", "text": "We should keep men out of women's sports.", "page": "p/we-keep-men-out.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "male-puberty-gives-advantages", "kind": "claim", "text": "Male puberty gives advantages in bone density, lung capacity, and muscle mass that often last even after hormone therapy, which makes competition against women unfair.", "page": "p/male-puberty-gives-advantages.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "women-s-sports-protected", "kind": "claim", "text": "Women's sports is a protected category, like a weight class or an age group, designed to let females compete fairly, not a way to validate gender identity.", "page": "p/women-s-sports-protected.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "excluding-transgender-women-female", "kind": "claim", "text": "Excluding transgender women from the female category in sports is discriminatory and denies them the social and psychological benefits of sport, treating their identity as invalid.", "page": "p/excluding-transgender-women-female.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "studies-post-transition-physiology", "kind": "claim", "text": "Studies of post-transition physiology show that transgender women retain the bone density and biomechanical advantages (such as hip structure) they acquired during male puberty.", "page": "p/studies-post-transition-physiology.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "performance-data-powerlifting-swimming", "kind": "claim", "text": "Performance data in powerlifting and swimming show that transgender women retain strength advantages after transition.", "page": "p/performance-data-powerlifting-swimming.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "long-term-studies-show", "kind": "claim", "text": "Long-term studies show that transgender women have significant decreases in hemoglobin and muscle cross-sectional area after 12 to 24 months of testosterone suppression.", "page": "p/long-term-studies-show.html", "belief": "we-keep-men-out", "draft": false }, { "key": "share-recorded-votes-cast", "kind": "claim", "text": "The share of recorded votes cast by members of Congress who hold stock in a company or industry directly affected by the vote is a fair measure of how often officials decide matters in which they have a personal financial stake.", "page": "p/share-recorded-votes-cast.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "how-well-members-congress", "kind": "claim", "text": "How well members of Congress do on stock trades placed shortly before committee actions or closed briefings, compared with their trades placed at other times, is a fair measure of whether officials profit from information they get in office.", "page": "p/how-well-members-congress.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "trading-spouse-dependent-child", "kind": "claim", "text": "Trading in spouse and dependent-child accounts, measured before and after a member of Congress stops trading personally, is a fair measure of whether a ban on the official removes the conflict or moves it to the family.", "page": "p/trading-spouse-dependent-child.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "study-matching-members-stock", "kind": "claim", "text": "A study matching members' stock holdings to their votes finds that members of Congress vote in the direction that benefits companies they own more often than similar members who do not own those companies.", "page": "p/study-matching-members-stock.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "study-finds-members-congress", "kind": "claim", "text": "A study finds that members of Congress who own stock in an industry vote no differently on bills affecting that industry than members who own none.", "page": "p/study-finds-members-congress.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "study-finds-members-stock", "kind": "claim", "text": "A study finds that members' stock trades placed just before closed briefings or committee actions earn no more than the same members' trades placed at other times.", "page": "p/study-finds-members-stock.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "comparing-states-where-board", "kind": "claim", "text": "Comparing states where a board or the legislature checks clemency with states where the governor acts alone is a fair test of whether a check on pardons reduces grants to the pardoner's own circle.", "page": "p/comparing-states-where-board.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "how-often-congress-has", "kind": "claim", "text": "How often Congress has overridden a presidential veto when the president's party held more than a third of either chamber is a fair guide to whether a two-thirds override of a pardon could ever pass.", "page": "p/how-often-congress-has.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "share-federal-pardons-granted", "kind": "claim", "text": "The share of federal pardons granted without a recommendation from the Justice Department's Pardon Attorney is a fair measure of how often the pardon power is used outside a review on the merits.", "page": "p/share-federal-pardons-granted.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "study-states-finds-where", "kind": "claim", "text": "A study of the states finds that where a board or the legislature can check clemency, governors grant fewer pardons to their relatives, donors and associates than governors who act alone.", "page": "p/study-states-finds-where.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "public-records-show-people", "kind": "claim", "text": "Public records show that people close to a president received money, donations or business favors from pardon recipients or their families shortly before the pardons were granted.", "page": "p/public-records-show-people.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "review-federal-pardons-across", "kind": "claim", "text": "A review of federal pardons across several presidencies finds that grants to a president's own relatives, donors and associates are rare and nearly all had a case the Justice Department would have supported on the merits.", "page": "p/review-federal-pardons-across.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "state-legislatures-boards-hold", "kind": "claim", "text": "State legislatures and boards that hold a power to review or block clemency almost never use it, even against grants that both parties publicly condemned.", "page": "p/state-legislatures-boards-hold.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "once-congressional-override-pardons", "kind": "claim", "text": "Once a congressional override of pardons is in the Constitution, the first pardons granted to a president's relatives or donors draw a recorded vote in Congress.", "page": "p/once-congressional-override-pardons.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "once-congressional-override-pardons-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Once a congressional override of pardons exists, pardon recipients and their lawyers wait for the override window to close before relying on a grant, which delays releases and dismissed cases.", "page": "p/once-congressional-override-pardons-2.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "decade-after-congressional-override", "kind": "claim", "text": "In the decade after a congressional override of pardons exists, fewer federal pardons go to the president's relatives, donors and business partners than in the decade before.", "page": "p/decade-after-congressional-override.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "decade-after-congressional-override-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "In the decade after a congressional override of pardons exists, presidents grant fewer pardons of every kind, including deserved ones, to avoid a fight in Congress.", "page": "p/decade-after-congressional-override-2.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "president-who-knows-pardon", "kind": "claim", "text": "A president who knows a pardon could face a recorded vote in Congress will grant fewer pardons that serve the president's own interests.", "page": "p/president-who-knows-pardon.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "enough-members-congress-will", "kind": "claim", "text": "Enough members of Congress will vote against a self-serving pardon on its merits even when the president who granted it leads their own party.", "page": "p/enough-members-congress-will.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "congress-more-likely-than", "kind": "claim", "text": "Congress is more likely than a president to judge a pardon by partisan passion or public anger rather than by the merits of the case.", "page": "p/congress-more-likely-than.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "harm-done-pardons-granted", "kind": "claim", "text": "The harm done by pardons granted to a president's allies is smaller than the harm of making every federal pardon uncertain until Congress has had its chance to vote.", "page": "p/harm-done-pardons-granted.html", "belief": "letting-congress-overturn-presidential", "draft": false }, { "key": "number-income-sources-lenders", "kind": "claim", "text": "The number of income sources, lenders and business interests that appear on an official's published tax return but not on the same year's financial disclosure form is a fair measure of whether tax returns add conflict-relevant information.", "page": "p/number-income-sources-lenders.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "number-ethics-complaints-investigations", "kind": "claim", "text": "The number of ethics complaints, investigations and news reports that cite information found only in a published tax return is a fair measure of whether anyone acts on what publication shows.", "page": "p/number-ethics-complaints-investigations.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "change-officials-foreign-income", "kind": "claim", "text": "The change in officials' foreign income and outside business income after a publication requirement takes effect is a fair measure of whether publication changes how officials handle their money.", "page": "p/change-officials-foreign-income.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "review-presidential-tax-returns", "kind": "claim", "text": "A review of presidential tax returns released since the 1970s finds income sources or business dealings that did not appear on the same presidents' financial disclosure forms.", "page": "p/review-presidential-tax-returns.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-who-published-tax", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials who published their tax returns voluntarily were later found to have used their office for private gain less often than comparable officials who did not publish.", "page": "p/officials-who-published-tax.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-who-published-tax-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials who published their tax returns voluntarily faced ethics findings for using their office for private gain just as often as officials who kept their returns private.", "page": "p/officials-who-published-tax-2.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-tax-return-publication", "kind": "claim", "text": "After a tax return publication requirement takes effect, covered officials move their income into trusts and business entities whose returns are not published, so their personal returns show less than before.", "page": "p/after-tax-return-publication.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-first-year-tax", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within the first year of a tax return publication requirement, the House and Senate ethics committees receive complaints that cite information taken from published returns.", "page": "p/within-first-year-tax.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "over-decade-required-publication", "kind": "claim", "text": "Over a decade of required publication, whether a presidential candidate will release tax returns stops being a campaign issue because release happens automatically.", "page": "p/over-decade-required-publication.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "over-decade-required-publication-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Over a decade of required publication, people with complicated foreign or business finances become less likely to run for Congress or the presidency.", "page": "p/over-decade-required-publication-2.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "officials-less-likely-use", "kind": "claim", "text": "Officials are less likely to use their office for private gain when they know the public can see where their income comes from.", "page": "p/officials-less-likely-use.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "voters-reporters-ethics-investigators", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voters, reporters or ethics investigators will actually read published tax returns and act on what they find.", "page": "p/voters-reporters-ethics-investigators.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "official-who-determined-profit", "kind": "claim", "text": "An official who is determined to profit from office can hide the gain in places that a personal tax return does not show.", "page": "p/official-who-determined-profit.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "senator-ron-wyden-oregon", "kind": "claim", "text": "Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon sponsored the Presidential Tax Transparency Act, a bill that would require presidents and major-party presidential nominees to release their tax returns.", "page": "p/senator-ron-wyden-oregon.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "representative-anna-eshoo-california", "kind": "claim", "text": "Representative Anna Eshoo of California introduced the House version of the Presidential Tax Transparency Act, which would require presidents and presidential nominees to make their tax returns public.", "page": "p/representative-anna-eshoo-california.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "california-governor-jerry-brown", "kind": "claim", "text": "California Governor Jerry Brown vetoed a 2017 bill requiring presidential candidates to release their tax returns to appear on the state ballot, writing that it might not be constitutional and asking what a state would require next.", "page": "p/california-governor-jerry-brown.html", "belief": "requiring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "number-conflict-interest-inquiries", "kind": "claim", "text": "The number of conflict-of-interest inquiries involving an official's relative that inspectors general and ethics offices open each year is a fair measure of private gain through family roles in government.", "page": "p/number-conflict-interest-inquiries.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "federal-agencies-already-covered", "kind": "claim", "text": "Federal agencies already covered by the anti-nepotism statute show fewer conflict-of-interest findings involving officials' relatives than the White House Office does.", "page": "p/federal-agencies-already-covered.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "records-show-presidential-relative", "kind": "claim", "text": "Records show that a presidential relative holding an official role steered a government decision toward a business in which that relative had a financial stake.", "page": "p/records-show-presidential-relative.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "after-relatives-president-leave", "kind": "claim", "text": "After relatives of a president leave formal White House posts, records show they keep the same access to the president and the same influence over decisions, while filing no disclosures.", "page": "p/after-relatives-president-leave.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "presidential-relatives-who-held", "kind": "claim", "text": "Presidential relatives who held formal White House roles are found to have followed federal ethics rules as closely as unrelated senior White House staff did.", "page": "p/presidential-relatives-who-held.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-year-two-bar", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within a year or two of a bar on family members holding official roles, a lawsuit challenges whether Congress has the power to limit whom the president appoints to the White House Office.", "page": "p/within-year-two-bar.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-year-two-bar-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within a year or two of a bar on relatives performing official government functions, disputes arise over whether a president's relative who attends policy meetings or travels with a government delegation is performing an official function.", "page": "p/within-year-two-bar-2.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-year-two-law", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within a year or two of a law barring relatives of the president and members of Congress from official government functions, the Office of Government Ethics issues guidance on which activities by a relative, such as attending policy meetings or traveling with a government delegation, count as an official function.", "page": "p/within-year-two-law.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "official-title-gives-relative", "kind": "claim", "text": "An official title gives a relative of the president more power to benefit the family than informal access to the president does.", "page": "p/official-title-gives-relative.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "relative-s-influence-over", "kind": "claim", "text": "A relative's influence over a president comes from the family tie rather than from a government title, so removing the title leaves the influence in place.", "page": "p/relative-s-influence-over.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "voters-rather-than-federal", "kind": "claim", "text": "Voters, rather than a federal statute, are the right check on whom a president trusts with official work.", "page": "p/voters-rather-than-federal.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "representative-ruben-gallego-arizona", "kind": "claim", "text": "Representative Ruben Gallego of Arizona introduced the Security Clearance Family Review Act (H.R. 2314) in May 2017, a narrower measure that would have required an Office of Government Ethics review of foreign business ties before a relative of the president could receive a security clearance for federal employment.", "page": "p/representative-ruben-gallego-arizona.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "representative-neal-smith-iowa", "kind": "claim", "text": "Representative Neal Smith of Iowa sponsored the 1967 amendment that became the federal anti-nepotism statute, which bars a public official from appointing or promoting a relative in an agency the official serves in or controls.", "page": "p/representative-neal-smith-iowa.html", "belief": "barring-president-members-congress", "draft": false }, { "key": "qualified-blind-trust-already-removes", "kind": "claim", "text": "A qualified blind trust already removes an official's knowledge of and control over individual holdings, so a ban adds enforcement cost without removing a conflict the trust has not already removed.", "page": "p/qualified-blind-trust-already-removes.html", "belief": "barring-members-congress-president", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "kind": "belief", "text": "Caitlin Clark is the main reason WNBA attendance and television ratings rose sharply in 2024 and 2025.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-main-reason.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "nationally-televised-wnba-games", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nationally televised WNBA games with Caitlin Clark playing in 2024 averaged about three times the audience of games without her.", "page": "p/nationally-televised-wnba-games.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "league-wide-wnba-television", "kind": "claim", "text": "League-wide WNBA television ratings fell by more than half during the five games Caitlin Clark missed with a quad injury in June 2025.", "page": "p/league-wide-wnba-television.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-brought-ready", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark brought a ready-made national audience to the WNBA, because her 2024 NCAA championship game drew more television viewers than the men's final that same weekend.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-brought-ready.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "finance-professor-ryan-brewer", "kind": "claim", "text": "Finance professor Ryan Brewer's model, which projected 2024 WNBA attendance from pre-Clark trends, attributes about 60 percent of the 2024 attendance increase to Caitlin Clark.", "page": "p/finance-professor-ryan-brewer.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "attendance-ticket-prices-fever", "kind": "claim", "text": "Attendance and ticket prices for the Fever's road games in 2024 rose far above the host teams' other dates, which shows the new crowd followed Clark from city to city.", "page": "p/attendance-ticket-prices-fever.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "2024-regular-season-nationally", "kind": "claim", "text": "In the 2024 regular season, nationally televised Indiana Fever games averaged 1.18 million viewers while all other WNBA national telecasts averaged 394,000.", "page": "p/2024-regular-season-nationally.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "during-five-games-caitlin", "kind": "claim", "text": "During the five games Caitlin Clark missed with a quad injury in June 2025, league-wide Nielsen ratings fell 55 percent and Fever national telecasts fell from an average of 1.81 million viewers to 847,000.", "page": "p/during-five-games-caitlin.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "ryan-brewer-associate-professor", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University Columbus, estimated that Caitlin Clark accounted for 26.5 percent of all WNBA economic activity in 2024 and about 60 percent of the league's attendance increase.", "page": "p/ryan-brewer-associate-professor.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "2025-wnba-all-star", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 2025 WNBA All-Star Game, which Caitlin Clark sat out injured, drew 2.19 million viewers, down 36 percent from the record 3.44 million for the 2024 game she played in.", "page": "p/2025-wnba-all-star.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "indiana-fever-games-caitlin", "kind": "claim", "text": "Indiana Fever games with Caitlin Clark on the floor in the 2026 regular season will average at least twice the national television audience of games not involving the Fever.", "page": "p/indiana-fever-games-caitlin.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "indiana-fever-road-games", "kind": "claim", "text": "Indiana Fever road games in 2026 will draw at least 50 percent more fans than the host team's average for its other home dates.", "page": "p/indiana-fever-road-games.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "nielsen-analysis-showing-once", "kind": "claim", "text": "A Nielsen analysis showing that, once the 2025 switch to Big Data plus Panel measurement is adjusted for, WNBA games without the Indiana Fever drew fewer viewers in 2025 than in 2024 would strengthen the belief.", "page": "p/nielsen-analysis-showing-once.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "survey-new-2024-2025", "kind": "claim", "text": "A survey of new 2024 and 2025 season-ticket buyers at non-Fever teams in which a majority said Caitlin Clark was the reason they started watching the WNBA would strengthen the belief.", "page": "p/survey-new-2024-2025.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "comparing-nielsen-audiences-games", "kind": "claim", "text": "Comparing Nielsen audiences for games with Caitlin Clark against games without her in the same season fairly isolates her drawing power rather than the time slots and networks the Fever were given.", "page": "p/comparing-nielsen-audiences-games.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-caitlin-clark-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without Caitlin Clark, WNBA viewership would have kept growing at roughly its 2023 pace of about 20 percent a year rather than roughly tripling.", "page": "p/without-caitlin-clark-wnba.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "christine-brennan-usa-today", "kind": "claim", "text": "Christine Brennan, the USA Today sports columnist, argues in her 2025 book On Her Game that Caitlin Clark's arrival did more than any other single event to turn the WNBA into a mainstream television product.", "page": "p/christine-brennan-usa-today.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "lebron-james-said-mind", "kind": "claim", "text": "LeBron James said on the Mind the Game podcast in May 2024 that the WNBA's growth was in large part because of Caitlin Clark, because more people wanted to watch and tune in when she played.", "page": "p/lebron-james-said-mind.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "ryan-brewer-finance-professor", "kind": "claim", "text": "Ryan Brewer, a finance professor at Indiana University Columbus, concluded in an analysis for the Indianapolis Star in December 2024 that Caitlin Clark accounted for 26.5 percent of all WNBA economic activity in her rookie season.", "page": "p/ryan-brewer-finance-professor.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-national-viewership-was", "kind": "claim", "text": "WNBA national viewership was already rising before Caitlin Clark arrived, with 2023 viewership up 21 percent over 2022 and the most-watched regular season in 21 years.", "page": "p/wnba-national-viewership-was.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-games-teams-no", "kind": "claim", "text": "WNBA games and teams with no Fever involvement also set records, including the 2024 Finals, which averaged 1.6 million viewers, and the Golden State Valkyries, who out-drew the Fever at the gate in 2025.", "page": "p/wnba-games-teams-no.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "2024-wnba-rookie-class", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 2024 WNBA rookie class, especially Angel Reese, and established stars such as A'ja Wilson brought their own followings, and Clark's biggest television audiences came in Fever-Sky games built on her rivalry with Reese.", "page": "p/2024-wnba-rookie-class.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "more-wnba-games-were", "kind": "claim", "text": "More WNBA games were available on broadcast and basic cable from 2023 onward, including the ION Friday package and more ABC and CBS windows, so more people could find the league whatever team was playing.", "page": "p/more-wnba-games-were.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-played-only", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark played only 13 of the Fever's 45 games in 2025, yet the WNBA set an all-time attendance record and reported its most-watched regular season since 1998.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-played-only.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "2024-wnba-finals-between", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 2024 WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, a series with no Fever involvement, averaged 1.6 million viewers, up 115 percent from 2023 and the most-watched Finals in 25 years.", "page": "p/2024-wnba-finals-between.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-national-viewership-2023", "kind": "claim", "text": "WNBA national viewership in 2023, the season before Caitlin Clark was drafted, was up 21 percent over 2022 across ABC, CBS, ESPN and ESPN2, the most-watched regular season in 21 years.", "page": "p/wnba-national-viewership-2023.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "may-2024-new-york", "kind": "claim", "text": "In May 2024, New York Liberty home games that did not involve the Fever averaged 10,593 fans against 7,247 for the same number of early home dates in 2023, and Connecticut Sun non-Fever dates averaged 6,901 against 5,201.", "page": "p/may-2024-new-york.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-indiana-fever-2026", "kind": "claim", "text": "If the Indiana Fever are not in the 2026 WNBA Finals, that series will still average at least 1.5 million viewers per game.", "page": "p/if-indiana-fever-2026.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "least-four-wnba-teams", "kind": "claim", "text": "At least four WNBA teams other than the Indiana Fever will average more than 12,000 fans per home game in the 2027 regular season.", "page": "p/least-four-wnba-teams.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "full-wnba-season-which", "kind": "claim", "text": "A full WNBA season in which Caitlin Clark misses most of the Fever's games while league-wide attendance and national viewership both rise on a like-for-like Nielsen basis would weaken the belief.", "page": "p/full-wnba-season-which.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "nielsen-data-showing-national", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nielsen data showing that national telecasts without the Indiana Fever grew faster than Fever telecasts in both 2025 and 2026 would weaken the belief.", "page": "p/nielsen-data-showing-national.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "rise-wnba-viewership-was", "kind": "claim", "text": "A rise in WNBA viewership that was already under way in 2022 and 2023 would have continued without Caitlin Clark, because its causes (more broadcast windows, a stronger college pipeline, more marketing) were already in place.", "page": "p/rise-wnba-viewership-was.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "2024-rookie-class-whole", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 2024 rookie class as a whole, especially Angel Reese, plus established stars like A'ja Wilson, would have drawn much of the same new audience even if Clark had never been drafted.", "page": "p/2024-rookie-class-whole.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-s-2025-attendance", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA's 2025 attendance and viewership records, set while Caitlin Clark missed 32 of 45 Fever games, show that the league's growth now stands on its own.", "page": "p/wnba-s-2025-attendance.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "sheila-johnson-co-owner", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sheila Johnson, co-owner of the Washington Mystics, said in December 2024 that the WNBA's growth could not be pinned on one player, that Angel Reese and the whole 2024 draft class deserved credit, and that Time should have put the entire league on its Athlete of the Year cover instead of Caitlin Clark alone.", "page": "p/sheila-johnson-co-owner.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "angel-reese-said-june", "kind": "claim", "text": "Angel Reese said in June 2024 that the reason people were watching women's basketball was not just because of one person but because of her too, and that she wanted people to realize that.", "page": "p/angel-reese-said-june.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "putting-indiana-fever-games", "kind": "claim", "text": "Putting Indiana Fever games in the most valuable national broadcast windows raises the WNBA's average national telecast audience by several hundred thousand viewers per game.", "page": "p/putting-indiana-fever-games.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "fever-visits-sell-out", "kind": "claim", "text": "Fever visits sell out arenas across the league, so host teams' ticket revenue rises on those dates.", "page": "p/fever-visits-sell-out.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "protecting-caitlin-clark-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Protecting Caitlin Clark's health and playing time keeps the league's biggest audience draw on the court for more telecasts each season.", "page": "p/protecting-caitlin-clark-s.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "building-schedules-marketing-around", "kind": "claim", "text": "Building schedules and marketing around one player makes the WNBA's national audience fall sharply whenever Caitlin Clark is hurt or resting.", "page": "p/building-schedules-marketing-around.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "crediting-wnba-s-growth", "kind": "claim", "text": "Crediting the WNBA's growth to Caitlin Clark alone gives team owners a reason to resist league-wide salary increases in collective bargaining.", "page": "p/crediting-wnba-s-growth.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "expansion-teams-cleveland-detroit", "kind": "claim", "text": "Expansion teams in Cleveland, Detroit and Philadelphia that begin play between 2028 and 2030 face a market that may shrink once Caitlin Clark's career ends.", "page": "p/expansion-teams-cleveland-detroit.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "promoting-one-white-star", "kind": "claim", "text": "Promoting one white star above Black stars who draw crowds of their own deepens a grievance about race inside the WNBA.", "page": "p/promoting-one-white-star.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "ratio-average-national-television", "kind": "claim", "text": "The ratio of average national television viewership for WNBA games Caitlin Clark plays to games she does not play, taken from Nielsen figures as reported by Sports Media Watch, is a fair measure of how much of the audience is hers.", "page": "p/ratio-average-national-television.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "change-average-attendance-national", "kind": "claim", "text": "The change in average attendance and national viewership for WNBA games that do not involve the Indiana Fever, from 2023 to 2025, is a fair measure of how much growth happened away from Caitlin Clark.", "page": "p/change-average-attendance-national.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-attendance-viewership-season", "kind": "claim", "text": "WNBA attendance and viewership in a season Caitlin Clark mostly misses, compared with the season before, is a fair measure of whether the league's growth depends on her.", "page": "p/wnba-attendance-viewership-season.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "nationally-televised-wnba-games-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nationally televised WNBA games with Caitlin Clark drew far more viewers in 2024 and 2025 than games without her.", "page": "p/nationally-televised-wnba-games-2.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "gap-between-clark-games", "kind": "claim", "text": "The gap between Clark games and other games reflects viewers choosing to watch Caitlin Clark rather than the networks placing Fever games in better time slots and on bigger channels.", "page": "p/gap-between-clark-games.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-caitlin-clark-wnba-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without Caitlin Clark, WNBA attendance and television ratings would have grown only modestly from their 2023 levels in 2024 and 2025.", "page": "p/without-caitlin-clark-wnba-2.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "networks-league-will-keep", "kind": "claim", "text": "Networks and the league will keep scheduling Indiana Fever games in their best national windows, and Caitlin Clark's health will be treated as the single largest risk to each season's television numbers, as it was during her June 2025 injury.", "page": "p/networks-league-will-keep.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "collective-bargaining-between-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "Collective bargaining between the WNBA and its players will be fought partly over whether the league's new revenue belongs to one player's draw or to the whole league.", "page": "p/collective-bargaining-between-wnba.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-s-audience-over", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA's audience over the next decade will track Caitlin Clark's career arc, falling off when she retires or declines unless other stars have built followings of their own by then.", "page": "p/wnba-s-audience-over.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "league-will-design-its", "kind": "claim", "text": "The league will design its marketing, media rights and expansion plans around superstar-driven demand, as the NBA did in the Michael Jordan era, rather than around balanced team-by-team growth.", "page": "p/league-will-design-its.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "without-caitlin-clark-wnba-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "Without Caitlin Clark, WNBA attendance and television ratings would have stayed close to their 2023 levels in 2024 and 2025.", "page": "p/without-caitlin-clark-wnba-3.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-accounts-more", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark accounts for more than half of the WNBA's revenue growth since 2023.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-accounts-more.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-was-single", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark was the single largest of several causes of the WNBA's audience growth in 2024, but not of its growth in 2025.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-was-single.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-arrival", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's arrival accelerated a WNBA audience rise that was already under way before she was drafted.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-arrival.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-main-reason", "draft": false }, { "key": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "kind": "belief", "text": "Opposing players have targeted Caitlin Clark with harder and more frequent physical play than other rookies and stars receive.", "page": "p/opposing-players-have-targeted.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-drew-six", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark drew six of the WNBA's 35 flagrant fouls in 2024, double the next most-fouled player, which is far more than a single player's share of minutes would predict.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-drew-six.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "opposing-coaches-have-said", "kind": "claim", "text": "Opposing coaches have said on the record that they instruct their players to be physical with Caitlin Clark because she does not like physicality.", "page": "p/opposing-coaches-have-said.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "several-hardest-hits-caitlin", "kind": "claim", "text": "Several of the hardest hits on Caitlin Clark, including the 2024 Chennedy Carter hip check, the 2025 Marina Mabrey shove and the 2026 Alyssa Thomas blow to the throat, drew no flagrant call live and were upgraded only after the league reviewed video.", "page": "p/several-hardest-hits-caitlin.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-has-drawn", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark has drawn more flagrant fouls than any other WNBA player since she entered the league in 2024, nine in her first 72 games, while players with far more games drew fewer.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-has-drawn.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-own", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's own teammates and coaches, including Sophie Cunningham and Christie Sides, have said publicly that opponents target her and have sent video of fouls to the league asking for action.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-own.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "players-fouling-caitlin-clark", "kind": "claim", "text": "Players fouling Caitlin Clark accounted for six of the WNBA's 35 flagrant fouls in the 2024 regular season, 17.1 percent, and under the assumption that every player had the same chance per minute of being flagrantly fouled the probability of her drawing six was about 1 in 100,000.", "page": "p/players-fouling-caitlin-clark.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-had-drawn", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark had drawn nine flagrant fouls in her first 72 WNBA games, the most of any player since 2024, while Chelsea Gray drew eight in 107 games, Allisha Gray six in 105, Kelsey Mitchell five in 112 and Angel Reese four in 82.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-had-drawn.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-suspended-phoenix-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA suspended Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas for one game and assessed a flagrant foul for a non-basketball act after her fist struck Caitlin Clark's throat on June 22, 2026, a play on which referees called no foul live.", "page": "p/wnba-suspended-phoenix-s.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "chicago-sky-committed-four", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Chicago Sky committed four of the flagrant fouls on Caitlin Clark in 2024, roughly one flagrant per Fever-Sky game that season.", "page": "p/chicago-sky-committed-four.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-will-still", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark will still lead all WNBA players in flagrant fouls drawn since 2024 when the 2027 regular season ends.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-will-still.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-will-upgrade-least", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA will upgrade at least two fouls on Caitlin Clark to flagrant status after video review during the 2027 regular season.", "page": "p/wnba-will-upgrade-least.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "review-every-flagrant-foul", "kind": "claim", "text": "A review of every flagrant foul from 2024 through 2026 finds that Caitlin Clark's rate per 36 minutes is at least double that of every other player with 2,000 or more minutes.", "page": "p/review-every-flagrant-foul.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "former-wnba-player-coach", "kind": "claim", "text": "A former WNBA player or coach states on the record that a team's game plan included fouling Caitlin Clark harder than the rules allow.", "page": "p/former-wnba-player-coach.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "flagrant-fouls-called-upgraded", "kind": "claim", "text": "Flagrant fouls as called and upgraded by the WNBA are a fair gauge of how hard a player is hit, so the player who draws the most flagrant fouls has been hit the hardest.", "page": "p/flagrant-fouls-called-upgraded.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "opposing-players-coaches-can", "kind": "claim", "text": "Opposing players and coaches can decide before a game to use extra contact against one particular opponent, and that decision shows up in the fouls she draws.", "page": "p/opposing-players-coaches-can.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-high", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's high usage and driving style cannot by themselves explain a share of flagrant fouls that runs far above her share of minutes played.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-high.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "indiana-fever-coach-christie", "kind": "claim", "text": "Indiana Fever coach Christie Sides said in June 2024 that some of the fouls on Caitlin Clark had crossed the line and that she would keep sending video clips to the WNBA league office until something was done about it.", "page": "p/indiana-fever-coach-christie.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "indiana-fever-general-manager", "kind": "claim", "text": "Indiana Fever general manager Lin Dunn posted on X in June 2024, after Chennedy Carter's hip check on Caitlin Clark, that the league needed to clean up the unnecessary targeting actions against Clark.", "page": "p/indiana-fever-general-manager.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "indiana-fever-coach-stephanie", "kind": "claim", "text": "Indiana Fever coach Stephanie White said on July 16, 2025 that the physicality teams are allowed to play with against Caitlin Clark for 40 minutes a game is a factor in her soft-tissue injuries.", "page": "p/indiana-fever-coach-stephanie.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "june-2024-caitlin-clark", "kind": "claim", "text": "In June 2024 Caitlin Clark ranked 11th in the WNBA in fouls drawn per game at 4.2, so ten players were fouled more often than she was during the stretch when the targeting debate was loudest.", "page": "p/june-2024-caitlin-clark.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-playing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's playing style, with high usage, constant ball handling and drives into traffic, puts her in more contact situations per game than most players, so more fouls on her are expected without any special intent.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-playing.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "veteran-wnba-players-longtime", "kind": "claim", "text": "Veteran WNBA players and longtime observers say the shoves, grabs and hard screens Caitlin Clark faces are what every newcomer to the league has faced, and only the television attention is new.", "page": "p/veteran-wnba-players-longtime.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "heightened-attention-caitlin-clark", "kind": "claim", "text": "Heightened attention to Caitlin Clark leads referees and the league office to review and upgrade contact against her that would pass unremarked against other players, inflating her flagrant count.", "page": "p/heightened-attention-caitlin-clark.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "june-4-2024-caitlin", "kind": "claim", "text": "As of June 4, 2024, Caitlin Clark ranked 11th in the WNBA in fouls drawn per game at 4.2, first among rookies but behind ten veterans.", "page": "p/june-4-2024-caitlin.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-attempted-4", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark attempted 4.5 free throws per game in 2024 with a 27.7 percent usage rate, a modest free throw rate for a player who handled the ball as much as she did.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-attempted-4.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "least-one-other-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "At least one other WNBA player will draw flagrant fouls at a higher rate per game than Caitlin Clark across the 2026 and 2027 seasons combined.", "page": "p/least-one-other-wnba.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-will-rank", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark will rank outside the top ten WNBA players in fouls drawn per game for the 2027 regular season.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-will-rank.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "per-minute-count-shows", "kind": "claim", "text": "A per-minute count shows that two or more other WNBA stars drew flagrant fouls at rates within 20 percent of Caitlin Clark's over 2024 through 2026.", "page": "p/per-minute-count-shows.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "comparison-rookie-seasons-shows", "kind": "claim", "text": "A comparison of rookie seasons shows that earlier top picks such as Diana Taurasi, Candace Parker or Breanna Stewart drew flagrant fouls at rates similar to Caitlin Clark's once minutes and usage are matched.", "page": "p/comparison-rookie-seasons-shows.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "attention-caitlin-clark-changes", "kind": "claim", "text": "The attention on Caitlin Clark changes which plays get reviewed and upgraded, so her flagrant foul record measures scrutiny as much as it measures contact.", "page": "p/attention-caitlin-clark-changes.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-has-always-been", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA has always been a physical league, and the contact Caitlin Clark faces is the same welcome every star guard has received on arrival.", "page": "p/wnba-has-always-been.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "hard-defense-stays-within", "kind": "claim", "text": "Hard defense that stays within the rules is strategy and not targeting, even when a coach says before the game that it is aimed at one player.", "page": "p/hard-defense-stays-within.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-commissioner-cathy-engelbert", "kind": "claim", "text": "WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert said on June 12, 2024 that everybody was watching Caitlin Clark and so focused only on her, that nobody had said she was targeted in the game in question, and that across other games with other players the WNBA is simply a physical game.", "page": "p/wnba-commissioner-cathy-engelbert.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "espn-analyst-rebecca-lobo", "kind": "claim", "text": "ESPN analyst Rebecca Lobo posted on X on September 1, 2024 that Caitlin Clark's five flagrant fouls drawn in 32 games should be read against Satou Sabally's four in 38 games in 2023 and Aerial Powers's five in 35 games in 2022, which she offered as context against the idea that Clark's treatment was unprecedented.", "page": "p/espn-analyst-rebecca-lobo.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "connecticut-sun-guard-natasha", "kind": "claim", "text": "Connecticut Sun guard Natasha Cloud said on The Pivot podcast on March 14, 2025 that there was no targeting of Caitlin Clark or Angel Reese in 2024 and that the story of veterans going after certain rookies was invented.", "page": "p/connecticut-sun-guard-natasha.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-wnba-accepts-caitlin", "kind": "claim", "text": "If the WNBA accepts that Caitlin Clark draws dangerous contact at an unusual rate and calls it live, the number of flagrant fouls that referees miss live and the league upgrades afterward will fall.", "page": "p/if-wnba-accepts-caitlin.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-opponents-stop-hitting", "kind": "claim", "text": "If opponents stop hitting Caitlin Clark with non-basketball contact, the Indiana Fever's best player will be available for more of the games that ticket holders pay to see.", "page": "p/if-opponents-stop-hitting.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-league-publishes-per", "kind": "claim", "text": "If the league publishes per-player counts of flagrant fouls drawn and missed calls, fans and players arguing about Caitlin Clark will have a shared set of numbers instead of dueling highlight clips.", "page": "p/if-league-publishes-per.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-league-treats-contact", "kind": "claim", "text": "If the league treats contact against Caitlin Clark as uniquely dangerous, defenders who play a long-standing physical style will be fined and suspended for plays that drew ordinary fouls against other players.", "page": "p/if-league-treats-contact.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-every-hard-foul", "kind": "claim", "text": "If every hard foul on Caitlin Clark is framed as targeting, the mostly Black players named in those clips will absorb harassment and threats, as Alyssa Thomas reported in June 2026.", "page": "p/if-every-hard-foul.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "if-referees-told-watch", "kind": "claim", "text": "If referees are told to watch Caitlin Clark more closely, they will call fouls on contact against her that they let go against others, producing the uneven officiating the belief complains about from the other direction.", "page": "p/if-referees-told-watch.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "flagrant-fouls-drawn-per", "kind": "claim", "text": "Flagrant fouls drawn per 36 minutes, compared with the same figure for the ten WNBA players with the highest usage rates over the same seasons, is a fair measure of whether Caitlin Clark absorbs more dangerous contact than other stars.", "page": "p/flagrant-fouls-drawn-per.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "personal-fouls-drawn-per", "kind": "claim", "text": "Personal fouls drawn per 100 possessions, ranked among all WNBA players with at least 500 minutes in a season, is a fair measure of how often Caitlin Clark is fouled at all compared with other stars.", "page": "p/personal-fouls-drawn-per.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "share-flagrant-fouls-player", "kind": "claim", "text": "The share of flagrant fouls on a player that referees miss live and the league upgrades after video review, compared with the same share for every other player, is a fair measure of whether officials protect Caitlin Clark less than they protect others.", "page": "p/share-flagrant-fouls-player.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-has-drawn-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark has drawn flagrant fouls at a higher rate per game than other WNBA stars and rookies since 2024.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-has-drawn-2.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "extra-contact-caitlin-clark", "kind": "claim", "text": "The extra contact Caitlin Clark draws comes from choices her opponents make rather than from her own style of play.", "page": "p/extra-contact-caitlin-clark.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "referees-wnba-league-office", "kind": "claim", "text": "Referees and the WNBA league office apply the same standard of review to contact on Caitlin Clark as to contact on other players.", "page": "p/referees-wnba-league-office.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "referees-will-call-more", "kind": "claim", "text": "Referees will call more fouls on contact against Caitlin Clark in the season after the WNBA acts, and the share of her flagrant fouls called live rather than upgraded days later on review will rise.", "page": "p/referees-will-call-more.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "opposing-coaches-will-stop", "kind": "claim", "text": "Opposing coaches will stop saying on the record that they plan to play Caitlin Clark physically because she does not like it, since such remarks would invite fines once the league treats them as evidence of targeting.", "page": "p/opposing-coaches-will-stop.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "rookies-who-arrive-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "Rookies who arrive in the WNBA with large followings will be guarded under the same contact rules as veterans, and their rates of flagrant fouls drawn will no longer stand out from the league's.", "page": "p/rookies-who-arrive-wnba.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-will-have-settled", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA will have a settled, in-game video review standard for non-basketball contact, so that fights over player safety of the kind seen from 2024 through 2026 become rare.", "page": "p/wnba-will-have-settled.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "opposing-wnba-players-have", "kind": "claim", "text": "Opposing WNBA players have deliberately tried to injure Caitlin Clark.", "page": "p/opposing-wnba-players-have.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-has-knowingly-let", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA has knowingly let players hit Caitlin Clark harder than the rules allow because punishing them would anger the league's veterans.", "page": "p/wnba-has-knowingly-let.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-has-drawn-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark has drawn more flagrant fouls than any other WNBA player since 2024, whatever the reason for it.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-has-drawn-3.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "referees-have-missed-more", "kind": "claim", "text": "Referees have missed more live calls on hard contact against Caitlin Clark than on similar contact against other WNBA stars.", "page": "p/referees-have-missed-more.html", "belief": "opposing-players-have-targeted", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "kind": "belief", "text": "Caitlin Clark's popularity owes more to her play than to her being white.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-popularity.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-national", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's national audience appeared only after her play became historic in the 2023 NCAA tournament, while her race was the same in every season before it.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-national.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "white-wnba-stars-signature", "kind": "claim", "text": "White WNBA stars with signature shoes before Clark, including Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Elena Delle Donne, never produced a seven-figure television audience.", "page": "p/white-wnba-stars-signature.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "clark-s-style-play", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clark's style of play, long three-pointers and flashy passing at record volume, is the same kind of play that pulled casual viewers to Stephen Curry in the NBA.", "page": "p/clark-s-style-play.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "fans-who-vote-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "Fans who vote for the WNBA All-Star Game placed Black players Napheesa Collier, Aliyah Boston and A'ja Wilson directly behind Clark in 2025, so the same fan base rewards play across races.", "page": "p/fans-who-vote-wnba.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "clark-holds-ncaa-division", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clark holds the NCAA Division I career scoring record of 3,951 points and the career three-point record of 548, a performance resume that by itself explains why a national audience would follow her.", "page": "p/clark-holds-ncaa-division.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "clark-s-television-audiences", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clark's television audiences fell by more than half when she was injured in 2025 and returned when she played 40 of 44 games in 2026, following her presence on the floor rather than anything about her identity, which never changed.", "page": "p/clark-s-television-audiences.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "nationally-televised-wnba-games-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "Nationally televised WNBA games averaged about 1.8 million viewers before Caitlin Clark's May 24, 2025 quad injury and just under 850,000 after it, a drop of 55 percent.", "page": "p/nationally-televised-wnba-games-3.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "2024-women-s-final", "kind": "claim", "text": "The 2024 women's Final Four with Clark averaged a record 10.8 million viewers on ESPN, and the 2025 Final Four without her averaged 3.9 million, a 64 percent fall in the same tournament on the same network.", "page": "p/2024-women-s-final.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "paige-bueckers-nationally-televised", "kind": "claim", "text": "Paige Bueckers' nationally televised Dallas Wings games that do not involve the Fever will average less than half the audience of Clark's Fever games in the 2027 season.", "page": "p/paige-bueckers-nationally-televised.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "2027-wnba-all-star", "kind": "claim", "text": "In the 2027 WNBA All-Star fan vote, the second- and third-place finishers behind Clark will again be Black players, as they were in 2025.", "page": "p/2027-wnba-all-star.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "game-game-study-finding", "kind": "claim", "text": "A game-by-game study finding that Clark's audiences rise and fall with her own statistical output, such as points and assists in the preceding week, would strengthen the belief.", "page": "p/game-game-study-finding.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "survey-finding-clark-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "A survey finding that Clark's fans are no whiter than the WNBA audience at large would strengthen the belief.", "page": "p/survey-finding-clark-s.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "television-audiences-women-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Television audiences for women's basketball respond mainly to the quality and style of the play they can see on the screen.", "page": "p/television-audiences-women-s.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "cause-stayed-same-years", "kind": "claim", "text": "A cause that stayed the same for years, such as a player's race, cannot by itself explain an audience that appeared in a single season.", "page": "p/cause-stayed-same-years.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "failure-earlier-white-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "The failure of earlier white WNBA stars to draw a national audience is a fair test of whether whiteness alone sells a player.", "page": "p/failure-earlier-white-wnba.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "sue-bird-said-december", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sue Bird said on the December 18, 2024 episode of her podcast A Touch More that Caitlin Clark's race does not put the ball in the hoop, that nobody's race does, and that Clark's remark about privilege was not an apology for being white.", "page": "p/sue-bird-said-december.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "megyn-kelly-wrote-x", "kind": "claim", "text": "Megyn Kelly wrote on X in December 2024 that Clark was all but apologizing for being white and getting attention and called the remark fake and self-flagellation, a position that holds Clark's attention was earned on the court and owed nothing to race.", "page": "p/megyn-kelly-wrote-x.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "when-angel-reese-clark", "kind": "claim", "text": "When Angel Reese and Clark made the same taunting gesture in the 2023 NCAA tournament, Clark was celebrated and Reese was criticized, showing audiences read the two players through race.", "page": "p/when-angel-reese-clark.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "white-americans-make-up", "kind": "claim", "text": "White Americans make up the majority of the television audience and have generally embraced white stars in Black-majority leagues, with Larry Bird in the 1980s as the standing example.", "page": "p/white-americans-make-up.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "clark-s-story-straight", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clark's story as a straight white player from Iowa was marketable in a way a Black player from a big city could not easily copy, and that marketing built her audience alongside her play.", "page": "p/clark-s-story-straight.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "clark-herself-told-time", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clark herself told Time in December 2024 that as a white person there is privilege in her position, so even the subject of the belief names race as a factor.", "page": "p/clark-herself-told-time.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "kelsey-plum-set-ncaa", "kind": "claim", "text": "Kelsey Plum set the NCAA scoring record in 2017 without becoming a national phenomenon, so scoring records alone do not explain Clark, and the race-charged rivalry with Angel Reese is a plausible missing ingredient.", "page": "p/kelsey-plum-set-ncaa.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "analysis-700-000-tweets", "kind": "claim", "text": "An analysis of 700,000 tweets around the 2023 NCAA championship found that Clark was largely celebrated for a taunting gesture while Angel Reese was disproportionately criticized, often with racial undertones, for the same gesture.", "page": "p/analysis-700-000-tweets.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "paige-bueckers-dallas-wings", "kind": "claim", "text": "Paige Bueckers' Dallas Wings games that do not involve the Fever will draw national audiences within 25 percent of Clark's Fever games by the 2027 season.", "page": "p/paige-bueckers-dallas-wings.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "national-fan-survey-reporting", "kind": "claim", "text": "A national fan survey reporting race of respondent will find Clark's fans at least ten percentage points whiter than WNBA fans as a whole.", "page": "p/national-fan-survey-reporting.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "controlled-study-finding-white", "kind": "claim", "text": "A controlled study finding that white test audiences rate identical highlight plays higher when told the player is Clark than when told the player is a Black star would weaken the belief.", "page": "p/controlled-study-finding-white.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "finding-black-player-matching", "kind": "claim", "text": "A finding that a Black player matching Clark's per-game production for two seasons still drew less than half her national audience in games not against Clark would weaken the belief.", "page": "p/finding-black-player-matching.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "majority-white-american-audience", "kind": "claim", "text": "A majority-white American audience and the sponsors who court it reward white athletes more readily than Black athletes of equal skill.", "page": "p/majority-white-american-audience.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "how-player-marketed-talked", "kind": "claim", "text": "How a player is marketed and talked about by media shapes how many people tune in, independent of what she does on the court.", "page": "p/how-player-marketed-talked.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "best-test-race-factor", "kind": "claim", "text": "The best test of race as a factor is to compare Clark with a Black player of equal or greater accomplishment, such as A'ja Wilson, and ask why the market treated them differently.", "page": "p/best-test-race-factor.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "jemele-hill-told-los", "kind": "claim", "text": "Jemele Hill told the Los Angeles Times in May 2024 that we would all be very naive if we did not say race and her sexuality played a role in Caitlin Clark's popularity, later adding that being straight, white and from Iowa was a factor though not the only factor.", "page": "p/jemele-hill-told-los.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "ja-wilson-told-associated", "kind": "claim", "text": "A'ja Wilson told the Associated Press in May 2024 that race was a huge thing in how Clark's popularity came about, saying many people claim it is not about Black and white but to her it is.", "page": "p/ja-wilson-told-associated.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "sheila-johnson-co-owner-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sheila Johnson, co-owner of the Washington Mystics, told CNN Sport in December 2024 that the attention on Clark reflected the way media plays out race and that she had seen many players of color who were equally talented and never got the recognition they should have.", "page": "p/sheila-johnson-co-owner-2.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "youth-players-every-race", "kind": "claim", "text": "Youth players of every race see that fame in women's basketball follows skill, which keeps girls in the sport longer.", "page": "p/youth-players-every-race.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "fever-s-ticket-base", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Fever's ticket base holds because its draw rests on a player's play rather than a passing story, so renewal rates stay high.", "page": "p/fever-s-ticket-base.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "league-s-new-television", "kind": "claim", "text": "The league's new television money, which Indiana University's Ryan Brewer estimated at more than a quarter of WNBA revenue tied to Clark after 2024, is read as earned on the court and shared without resentment.", "page": "p/league-s-new-television.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "reporters-who-raise-race", "kind": "claim", "text": "Reporters who raise race as a factor get treated as attacking Clark's skill, which narrows what gets reported about the league.", "page": "p/reporters-who-raise-race.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "players-who-built-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "The players who built the WNBA before 2024, most of them Black, get written out of the story of its growth.", "page": "p/players-who-built-wnba.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "gap-national-television-audience", "kind": "claim", "text": "The gap in national television audience between Paige Bueckers' games and Angel Reese's games, excluding any game against Clark, is a fair measure of whether whiteness by itself draws a Clark-sized audience.", "page": "p/gap-national-television-audience.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "rank-correlation-between-wnba", "kind": "claim", "text": "The rank correlation between WNBA jersey sales and on-court production (All-Star votes, points and assists per game, awards) among the top twenty sellers is a fair measure of how much of popularity play explains.", "page": "p/rank-correlation-between-wnba.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "share-clark-s-self", "kind": "claim", "text": "The share of Clark's self-described fans who are white, compared with the white share of all WNBA fans in the same survey, is a fair measure of whether her following is racially distinct.", "page": "p/share-clark-s-self.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-court", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's on-court production and style were unusual enough to draw viewers who had not watched women's basketball before.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-court.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "clark-s-race-added", "kind": "claim", "text": "Clark's race added less to her audience than her play did, so that a Black player with the same records and style would have drawn most of the same crowd.", "page": "p/clark-s-race-added.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "size-audience-fair-measure", "kind": "claim", "text": "The size of an audience is a fair measure of what people find appealing in a player rather than of what media chose to show them.", "page": "p/size-audience-fair-measure.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "networks-sponsors-keep-building", "kind": "claim", "text": "Networks and sponsors keep building WNBA schedules and advertising campaigns around Clark's games, and her audience holds roughly steady so long as she is healthy and playing well.", "page": "p/networks-sponsors-keep-building.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "next-crop-college-stars", "kind": "claim", "text": "The next crop of college stars, of every race, is marketed on scoring records and shooting range rather than on biography, as the league tries to repeat the Clark effect by copying her play.", "page": "p/next-crop-college-stars.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "within-decade-several-black", "kind": "claim", "text": "Within a decade, several Black WNBA players with Clark-sized production and televised college runs draw seven-figure audiences of their own, and the race explanation for Clark's fame fades.", "page": "p/within-decade-several-black.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "wnba-s-new-media", "kind": "claim", "text": "The WNBA's new media money, revenue sharing and charter flights are remembered as earned on the court, which lowers the resentment between players that marked the 2024 and 2025 seasons.", "page": "p/wnba-s-new-media.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-race", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's race played no measurable part in her popularity, and her audience would be the same size if she were Black.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-race.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "any-claim-race-helped", "kind": "claim", "text": "Any claim that race helped build Caitlin Clark's audience is an excuse made by players and commentators who resent her success.", "page": "p/any-claim-race-helped.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-play", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's play was necessary for her popularity, but her race and her story as a straight white woman from Iowa made the audience larger than her play alone would have.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-play.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-play-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's play explains why people first watched her, and race explains much of the heat in how she has been argued about since.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-play-2.html", "belief": "caitlin-clark-s-popularity", "draft": false }, { "key": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "kind": "belief", "text": "Leaving Caitlin Clark off the 2024 United States Olympic basketball team was the right call.", "page": "p/leaving-caitlin-clark-off.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-one-12-players", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every one of the 12 players chosen for the 2024 United States Olympic women's basketball team had already won an Olympic or World Cup gold medal with the senior national team, and Caitlin Clark had never played a senior national team game.", "page": "p/every-one-12-players.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-could-attend", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark could not attend USA Basketball's April 2024 Olympic training camp because Iowa was playing in the NCAA Final Four, so the committee never saw her run Cheryl Reeve's system before its June 11 decision.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-could-attend.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "may-2024-caitlin-clark", "kind": "claim", "text": "In May 2024 Caitlin Clark shot 38 percent from the field over nine games and was turning the ball over 5.6 times a game before the break, numbers no other guard on the roster was posting.", "page": "p/may-2024-caitlin-clark.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-won-all", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States won all six games in Paris and an eighth straight Olympic gold medal, which is the only thing an Olympic roster is built to do.", "page": "p/united-states-won-all.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "sitting-out-olympics-gave", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sitting out the Olympics gave Caitlin Clark a month of rest in her rookie season, after which she averaged 23.5 points on 46 percent shooting in her first four games back compared with 17.1 points before the break, and the Fever went 9-5 after the break against 11-15 before it.", "page": "p/sitting-out-olympics-gave.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-went-6", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States went 6-0 at the Paris 2024 women's basketball tournament, beating Japan 102-76, Belgium 87-74, Germany 87-68, Nigeria 88-74, Australia 85-64 and France 67-66, an average margin of about 16 points.", "page": "p/united-states-went-6.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-averaged-17", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark averaged 17.1 points and 5.6 turnovers a game before the 2024 Olympic break and 23.5 points with 4.8 turnovers on 46.3 percent shooting over her first four games after it.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-averaged-17.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "indiana-fever-were-11", "kind": "claim", "text": "The Indiana Fever were 11-15 when the WNBA stopped for the Olympics on July 17, 2024 and finished 20-20, meaning they went 9-5 after Clark's month off.", "page": "p/indiana-fever-were-11.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-shot-38", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark shot 38 percent from the field over nine games in May 2024, the stretch the committee was watching before its June 11 vote.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-shot-38.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "usa-basketball-will-keep", "kind": "claim", "text": "USA Basketball will keep senior national team experience as a stated criterion and name a 2028 Olympic roster on which every player has played in a prior senior national team competition.", "page": "p/usa-basketball-will-keep.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "committee-notes-interviews-showing", "kind": "claim", "text": "Committee notes or interviews showing that Caitlin Clark ranked below several guards on specific basketball measures such as defense and FIBA familiarity in June 2024 would strengthen the belief.", "page": "p/committee-notes-interviews-showing.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "record-showing-2024-team", "kind": "claim", "text": "A record showing the 2024 team had only a few days of practice together before Paris, so a newcomer unfamiliar with Cheryl Reeve's system would likely not have earned minutes, would strengthen the belief.", "page": "p/record-showing-2024-team.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "only-legitimate-purpose-united", "kind": "claim", "text": "The only legitimate purpose of a United States Olympic basketball roster is to maximize the chance of winning the gold medal.", "page": "p/only-legitimate-purpose-united.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "experience-usa-basketball-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Experience in USA Basketball's camps and senior competitions predicts Olympic performance better than a rookie's statistics from two months of WNBA play.", "page": "p/experience-usa-basketball-s.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "committee-s-stated-criteria", "kind": "claim", "text": "The committee's stated criteria of experience, position and fit were the real reasons for the decision, rather than a cover for worries about fan reaction or player resentment.", "page": "p/committee-s-stated-criteria.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "jen-rizzotti-chair-usa", "kind": "claim", "text": "Jen Rizzotti, the chair of the USA Basketball committee that picked the team, said in June 2024 that the 12 players selected \"were the best when it boiled down to a basketball decision\" and that it would be irresponsible to discuss Caitlin Clark in any terms other than how she would affect team play.", "page": "p/jen-rizzotti-chair-usa.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "sue-bird-who-became", "kind": "claim", "text": "Sue Bird, who became managing director of the United States women's national team for the 2028 cycle, said on The Dan Patrick Show in May 2025 that she respected the committee's job on the 2024 roster and that \"it's hard to criticize a gold medal.\"", "page": "p/sue-bird-who-became.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "jemele-hill-wrote-x", "kind": "claim", "text": "Jemele Hill wrote on X in June 2024 that Caitlin Clark's absence from the Olympic roster was \"actually a good thing\" for Clark herself, and that not every decision in the sport could be about the optics around one player.", "page": "p/jemele-hill-wrote-x.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-was-averaging", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark was averaging 16.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists a game when the committee passed on her, and by September she was Rookie of the Year with 66 of 67 votes and the first rookie on the All-WNBA First Team since 2008.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-was-averaging.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "diana-taurasi-42-averaged", "kind": "claim", "text": "Diana Taurasi, at 42, averaged about one point over five games in Paris and never left the bench in the 67-66 gold medal game, so one of the 12 roster spots contributed nothing on the floor when the game was closest.", "page": "p/diana-taurasi-42-averaged.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "gold-medal-game-was", "kind": "claim", "text": "The gold medal game was won by a single point only because Gabby Williams's foot was on the three-point line when she shot at the buzzer, so the claim that the roster had depth to spare cannot survive the final score.", "page": "p/gold-medal-game-was.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-women-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States' women's gold medal game averaged 7.8 million viewers, down from 7.9 million for Tokyo, in a year when Clark's three biggest Iowa games drew 12.3, 14.4 and 19.5 million, so USA Basketball left the sport's largest proven audience at home.", "page": "p/united-states-women-s.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "casey-wasserman-president-los", "kind": "claim", "text": "Casey Wasserman, the president of the Los Angeles 2028 organizing committee, called the omission a \"missed opportunity\" and said Clark was \"clearly a generational talent at a time when the world was ready for it.\"", "page": "p/casey-wasserman-president-los.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "diana-taurasi-averaged-1", "kind": "claim", "text": "Diana Taurasi averaged 1.0 point, 0.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists over five games in Paris and did not play in the 67-66 gold medal game.", "page": "p/diana-taurasi-averaged-1.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-france-women", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States-France women's gold medal game averaged 7.8 million viewers on NBC and Peacock, slightly below the 7.9 million for the Tokyo final, and ranked fourth among 2024 women's basketball broadcasts behind three Iowa games that drew 19.5, 14.4 and 12.3 million.", "page": "p/united-states-france-women.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "her-first-senior-national", "kind": "claim", "text": "In her first senior national team competition, the March 2026 World Cup qualifiers in San Juan, Caitlin Clark averaged 11.6 points and 6.4 assists, the United States went 5-0 and Clark was named tournament MVP.", "page": "p/her-first-senior-national.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "usa-basketball-will-change", "kind": "claim", "text": "USA Basketball will change how its women's Olympic roster is chosen, giving the head coach or a smaller group the final say, and will publicly tie the change to the 2024 Clark decision.", "page": "p/usa-basketball-will-change.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "least-one-more-2024", "kind": "claim", "text": "At least one more 2024 committee member besides Dawn Staley will say on the record that Clark should have been on the Paris roster.", "page": "p/least-one-more-2024.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "confirmation-committee-member-diana", "kind": "claim", "text": "Confirmation from a committee member that Diana Taurasi's spot was settled before player evaluations began, as Christine Brennan reports, would weaken the belief.", "page": "p/confirmation-committee-member-diana.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "evidence-committee-weighed-how", "kind": "claim", "text": "Evidence that the committee weighed how fans would react on social media to Clark sitting on the bench, as Christine Brennan reports, would weaken the belief because the stated criteria would then not have been the real ones.", "page": "p/evidence-committee-weighed-how.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "growing-audience-women-s", "kind": "claim", "text": "Growing the audience for women's basketball is part of what USA Basketball exists to do, so a roster that ignores it is failing part of its mission.", "page": "p/growing-audience-women-s.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "team-won-its-first", "kind": "claim", "text": "On a team that won its first five games in Paris by double digits, the 12th roster spot costs almost nothing in winning chances, so a large benefit off the court should outweigh a tiny cost on it.", "page": "p/team-won-its-first.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-turnovers", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's turnovers and shooting in May 2024 were the ordinary adjustment of a rookie point guard, and a committee should have judged where she was heading rather than where she stood that month.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-turnovers.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "christine-brennan-usa-today-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Christine Brennan of USA Today, who first reported the omission, wrote in June 2024 that leaving Caitlin Clark off the Olympic team was a huge missed opportunity and that USA Basketball had failed to give women's basketball the biggest global platform it had ever had.", "page": "p/christine-brennan-usa-today-2.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "lisa-leslie-four-time", "kind": "claim", "text": "Lisa Leslie, a four-time Olympic gold medalist, told ESPN in April 2024 that Caitlin Clark \"better be on the Olympic team\" and said after the Games on ESPN's First Take that she did not know how the United States left the country without her.", "page": "p/lisa-leslie-four-time.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "charles-barkley-said-bill", "kind": "claim", "text": "Charles Barkley said on the Bill Simmons Podcast in 2024 that Caitlin Clark \"probably did deserve to make the Olympic team on merit,\" while adding that the rest the omission gave her was the best thing that happened to her that season.", "page": "p/charles-barkley-said-bill.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "picking-olympic-roster-senior", "kind": "claim", "text": "Picking the Olympic roster on senior national team record rather than fame keeps the United States on its gold medal streak.", "page": "p/picking-olympic-roster-senior.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "rookie-left-off-olympic", "kind": "claim", "text": "A rookie left off the Olympic team gets a month of rest in her first professional season and plays better afterward.", "page": "p/rookie-left-off-olympic.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "players-who-have-spent", "kind": "claim", "text": "Players who have spent years in USA Basketball camps and qualifying tournaments see that service rewarded with roster spots.", "page": "p/players-who-have-spent.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-women-s-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States' women's gold medal game drew fewer viewers than the Tokyo final despite the largest women's basketball audience in history earlier that year.", "page": "p/united-states-women-s-2.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "usa-basketball-its-coach", "kind": "claim", "text": "USA Basketball and its coach spent the Olympic summer answering questions about the player who was not there instead of the team that was.", "page": "p/usa-basketball-its-coach.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-margin-victory", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States' margin of victory in the Paris 2024 gold medal game is a fair measure of whether the 2024 roster had depth to spare.", "page": "p/united-states-margin-victory.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-s-true", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark's true shooting percentage and turnovers per game through June 11, 2024, compared with the five guards picked ahead of her, is a fair measure of whether she was one of the 12 best American players when the team was chosen.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-s-true.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "diana-taurasi-s-minutes", "kind": "claim", "text": "Diana Taurasi's minutes per game across the six Paris 2024 games is a fair measure of whether the twelfth roster spot was used for a basketball reason.", "page": "p/diana-taurasi-s-minutes.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "every-one-12-players-2", "kind": "claim", "text": "Every one of the 12 players on the 2024 United States Olympic women's roster had already won Olympic or World Cup gold with the senior national team, and the committee applied that standard to every spot.", "page": "p/every-one-12-players-2.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-olympic-basketball", "kind": "claim", "text": "A United States Olympic basketball roster exists to win the gold medal, not to grow the sport's audience.", "page": "p/united-states-olympic-basketball.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "choosing-player-her-popularity", "kind": "claim", "text": "Choosing a player for her popularity would push future committees toward picking rosters by audience rather than by play.", "page": "p/choosing-player-her-popularity.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "usa-basketball-keeps-experience", "kind": "claim", "text": "USA Basketball keeps experience with the senior team as its leading selection criterion for the 2026 World Cup roster, and no player is added to a major tournament roster without having been to a national team camp.", "page": "p/usa-basketball-keeps-experience.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "through-2028-2032-games", "kind": "claim", "text": "Through the 2028 and 2032 Games, USA Basketball selection committees keep choosing Olympic rosters on senior-team experience and fit, and rookies with large college followings continue to wait a cycle before making the team.", "page": "p/through-2028-2032-games.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "united-states-women-s-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "The United States women's team remains known to the public chiefly for its unbroken run of gold medals rather than for any one star, and its Olympic finals keep drawing audiences in the range of 7 to 8 million regardless of who is on the roster.", "page": "p/united-states-women-s-3.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "usa-basketball-never-select", "kind": "claim", "text": "USA Basketball should never select a player for an Olympic basketball team who has not played a game for the senior national team.", "page": "p/usa-basketball-never-select.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off-3", "kind": "claim", "text": "Leaving Caitlin Clark off the 2024 United States Olympic basketball team cost the United States nothing on the floor and nothing in the growth of the sport.", "page": "p/leaving-caitlin-clark-off-3.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off-4", "kind": "claim", "text": "Leaving Caitlin Clark off the 2024 United States Olympic basketball team was defensible on basketball grounds even if it was a missed chance to grow the sport's audience.", "page": "p/leaving-caitlin-clark-off-4.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false }, { "key": "caitlin-clark-was-one", "kind": "claim", "text": "Caitlin Clark was not one of the 12 best American women's basketball players in June 2024, but she was close enough that naming her an alternate was the right outcome.", "page": "p/caitlin-clark-was-one.html", "belief": "leaving-caitlin-clark-off", "draft": false } ] }