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Claim
No evidence that members of Congress outperformed the market over 2012 to 2020, the period after the STOCK Act. 0.50 Agree Disagree
If you disagree, this page has a column for you. A study, record or dataset that bears on this belief directly.
Argument TreesHow arguments are scored →
Reasons to agree
| # | Argument | Truth | Conf | Link | Imp | Uniq | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covers exactly the post-reform period the belief is about, using the transaction reports the STOCK Act created. | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
Reasons to disagree
| # | Argument | Truth | Conf | Link | Imp | Uniq | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | If disclosure already ended the advantage, that is an argument for keeping disclosure, not evidence that ownership creates no conflict in voting. | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | -0.00 |
Weight for 0.00 · weight against 0.00 · net +0.00
Each reason is a claim with its own page. Score = sign x (2 x Truth - 1) x Conf x Link x Imp x Uniq, and every column is here so the row can be multiplied out and checked. A reason argued false scores negative and counts against the side it is filed on; a reason nobody has argued yet scores exactly 0, and so does one whose own page has no work behind it.
Where This Page Is Used
| Page | Table | As | Its truth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barring members of Congress and the president from owning or trading individual stocks would reduce the use of public office for private gain. | evidence | a row | 0.50 |
Every page that reads this one. One claim, one home, every use visible.
Not filled in yet
| What Would Change the Answer | nothing sits beneath this page yet for the answer to rest on |
| Evidence Ledger | no findings cited yet |
| Falsifiability Test | nothing named that would strengthen or weaken this claim if it turned up |
| Testable Predictions | nothing stated that we should observe if this claim is true or false |
| Objective Criteria | no yardstick both sides would accept in advance has been proposed |
| What Acting On This Would Cost and Gain | no costs or benefits priced yet |
| Logical Anatomy | the claim has not been split into its component parts |
| Interests, Not Positions | nobody has mapped who wants what, or why |
| Media Resources | no books, studies or films weighed |
| Legal Framework | no laws or rulings cited |
| General to Specific | not linked to broader or narrower beliefs |
Parts of the template nobody has filled in here. They are named rather than shown, because an empty table is not a finding, and each one is a reason the confidence above is not higher. A part that takes rows has a form for its first one.
What this page needs right now
| # | The gap | Where it goes | Who is best placed to fill it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A study, record or dataset that bears on this belief directly | Evidence Ledger | anyone with the source |
| 2 | A measurement both sides would accept in advance, with the reading each side predicts | Objective Criteria | anyone who can name a yardstick the other side would sign |
Named gaps, read off the tables above, so a newcomer can see exactly where a contribution goes. None of them requires agreeing with the page, and each one links to the form it goes in.
What the numbers are made of
- Share on the agree side
- no scored weight either way
- What this rests on
- Observational or correlational study, 2 independent replications, 50% consistent, starts at 0.50 with weight 1.33
- Confidence
- 51%. Weakest parts: depth 0% · scrutiny 0%
- Depended on
- ReasonRank 0.0000, 1898 of 2173 · beneath 1 of 162 beliefs · read by 1 page
- Strongest reason for
- Covers exactly the post-reform period the belief is about, using the transaction reports the STOCK Act created. +0.00
- Strongest reason against
- If disclosure already ended the advantage, that is an argument for keeping disclosure, not evidence that ownership creates no conflict in voting. -0.00
- Coverage
- Of 2 scored rows, 2 have no linkage page, 2 have no importance page, 2 have no uniqueness page. This page reads no other page, so nothing beneath it can move it.
- Bottom line
- Directly on point for the trading-advantage claim; silent on the voting-conflict claim.
Scoring EngineTruth scores →
| Quantity | Value | How |
|---|---|---|
| Argument score | +0.00 | argument rows: weight for minus weight against |
| Evidence score | +0.00 | evidence rows: weight for minus weight against |
| Prediction contribution | +0.00 | prediction rows, same signed formula as every other row |
| Belief score | +0.00 | the three lines above added together |
| Positive total | 0.00 | every row whose signed contribution came out positive, from either side |
| Negative total | 0.00 | every row whose signed contribution came out negative, as a magnitude |
| Starting point | 0.50 | where this claim starts before any of its own rows count: Observational or correlational study, 2 independent replications, 50% consistent, starts at 0.50 with weight 1.33 |
| Weight of the starting point | 1.33 | k x a bounded reward for independent replication, k = 1, capped at 2.0 x k |
| Truth score, argued | 0.50 | (positive + weight x starting point) / (positive + negative + weight) |
| Truth score | 0.50 | argued truth, capped by the weakest load-bearing component that has its own page |
| ReasonRank | 0.0000 | how much of the site depends on this page: rank 1898 of 2173. The share of a walk that starts at the 162 beliefs and steps to the pages they read, with a 0.85 chance of stepping on each time |
| Work value | 0.0000 | ReasonRank x (1 - confidence): how much settling this page would be worth to everything above it |
| Completeness | yes | at least one scored reason on each side (an importance page: at least one interest; an interest page: both readings filled) |
Cite this page No evidence that members of Congress outperformed the market over 2012 to 2020, the period after the STOCK Act. Idea Stock Exchange, claim page no-evidence-members-congress, truth 0.50, confidence 51%, revision 42c8344 of 2026-10-04. The revision is what makes this quotable: these numbers move as the argument is worked on, and rebuilding that revision reproduces them exactly.
Every number on this page as data: no-evidence-members-congress.json. Constants: K = 1 · UNARG = 0.5 · DEFLINK = 1 · DEFIMP = 0.5 · DEFUNIQ = 1. A reason placed under a conclusion is presumed relevant until a linkage page says otherwise; the burden is on the challenger. The neutral start for importance, the wiki's own rule.
Every value here is computed from the tables above at build time. Nothing is typed.