{
 "key": "scientists-agencies-who-publish",
 "id": 896,
 "kind": "belief",
 "text": "Scientists and agencies who publish regional and local climate forecasts generally present them with more confidence than the climate models behind them have earned.",
 "standalone": "Scientists and agencies who publish regional and local climate forecasts generally present them with more confidence than the climate models behind them have earned.",
 "truth": 0.5,
 "confidence": 0.319444,
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 "start_weight": 1.0,
 "rests_on": {
  "etype": null,
  "erq": null,
  "erp": null
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 "reasonrank": 0.00334257,
 "reasonrank_place": 93,
 "work_value": 0.00227481,
 "beliefs_beneath": [],
 "complete": true,
 "checks": [
  {
   "severity": "a note",
   "title": "Nothing stated would show it false",
   "why": "No testable prediction is listed, so as written there is no observation that would count against this belief."
  }
 ],
 "used_on": [],
 "reads": [
  897,
  898,
  899,
  900,
  901,
  902
 ],
 "url": "scientists-agencies-who-publish.html",
 "cite": "Scientists and agencies who publish regional and local climate forecasts generally present them with more confidence than the climate models behind them have earned. Idea Stock Exchange, belief page scientists-agencies-who-publish, truth 0.50, confidence 32%, revision 42c8344.",
 "argued_truth": 0.5,
 "belief_score": 0,
 "weight_for": 0,
 "weight_against": 0,
 "capped_by": [],
 "sensitivity": {
  "status": "undecided",
  "inputs": 6,
  "inert": 0,
  "joint_worst": 0.5,
  "top": [
   {
    "page": 897,
    "key": "climate-models-agree-about",
    "if_false": 0.5,
    "if_true": 0.5,
    "move": 0.0,
    "move_if_settled": 0.166667,
    "verdict": "worth settling"
   },
   {
    "page": 898,
    "key": "climate-models-divide-world",
    "if_false": 0.5,
    "if_true": 0.5,
    "move": 0.0,
    "move_if_settled": 0.166667,
    "verdict": "worth settling"
   },
   {
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    "key": "many-local-climate-forecasts",
    "if_false": 0.5,
    "if_true": 0.5,
    "move": 0.0,
    "move_if_settled": 0.166667,
    "verdict": "worth settling"
   },
   {
    "page": 900,
    "key": "official-regional-climate-projections",
    "if_false": 0.5,
    "if_true": 0.5,
    "move": 0.0,
    "move_if_settled": 0.166667,
    "verdict": "worth settling"
   },
   {
    "page": 901,
    "key": "climate-models-forecast-some",
    "if_false": 0.5,
    "if_true": 0.5,
    "move": 0.0,
    "move_if_settled": 0.166667,
    "verdict": "worth settling"
   },
   {
    "page": 902,
    "key": "many-regional-climate-projections",
    "if_false": 0.5,
    "if_true": 0.5,
    "move": 0.0,
    "move_if_settled": 0.166667,
    "verdict": "worth settling"
   }
  ]
 },
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}