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Belief

A strong America is good for the planet. 0.50 Agree Disagree

Topic: Military · draft Still needs: objective criteria, testable predictions or a falsifiability test, costs and benefits (listed at the end of the page) · Votes are shown as what people think, next to what the analysis says, and never move a score. · Position on the topic axis (typed, not scored): +85

If you disagree, this page has a column for you. A reason to disagree that answers: “Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan”.

Argument TreesHow arguments are scored →

Weight for 0.00 · weight against 0.00 · net +0.00

Each reason is a claim with its own page. Score = sign x (2 x Truth - 1) x Conf x Link x Imp x Uniq, and every column is here so the row can be multiplied out and checked. A reason argued false scores negative and counts against the side it is filed on; a reason nobody has argued yet scores exactly 0, and so does one whose own page has no work behind it.

What Would Change the AnswerTruth scores →

#InputIts truthConfIf falseIf trueMoveIf settledWhat it does here
1Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
2U.S. military and economic power was decisive in defeating the three totalitarian projects of the 20th century: Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and, at the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
3Unlike earlier dominant powers, the United States has not annexed foreign territory to expand its own borders after its wars, and its postwar goals have centered on market access and regional stability rather than colonization. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
4When the United States pulls back from a region, rival authoritarian powers rather than peace have historically filled the vacuum, as with Russian and Iranian expansion into the space left by reduced U.S. presence in Syria. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
5Interventions justified by U.S. strength have repeatedly produced long-term instability instead of the promised order, as in Vietnam, the 2003 Iraq War, and the 2011 Libya intervention. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
6To preserve regional order, the United States has armed, funded, or diplomatically shielded authoritarian governments against their own populations, such as Gulf monarchies and Cold War-era Latin American juntas. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
7Sustained, trillion-dollar-scale U.S. global military commitments compete directly with domestic investment in infrastructure, health care, and education. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
8The U.S.-backed security order is one contested cause, alongside nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, of the historically unusual absence of any direct war between great powers since 1945. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
9The U.S. Navy has patrolled major global shipping lanes for decades, a public good widely credited with supporting globalization and poverty reduction. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
10After 1953, a U.S.-protected democratic South Korea and a famine-prone autocratic North Korea diverged sharply on every major human-development measure. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
11The 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq destabilized the region and contributed to the rise of ISIS, with death-toll estimates ranging widely, from roughly 200,000 documented violent deaths (Iraq Body Count) to over 650,000 excess deaths (2006 Lancet study). Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
12Declassified records document CIA funding and training of Afghan Mujahideen fighters in the 1980s, a program that contributed to the conditions from which Al-Qaeda later emerged. Claim0.500%0.500.500.000.17worth settling
13Taiwanese, South Koreans, and residents of the Baltic states need national security guaranteed by forward deterrence and credible alliances. Interest0.500%0.500.500.000.00inert
14American farmers who export grain and soybeans, U.S. manufacturers who sell abroad, and merchant shipping crews need open, predictable global trade routes and markets for U.S. goods and investment. Interest0.500%0.500.500.000.00inert

Not shown: 4 further inputs, each moving it less than any row shown

Every claim beneath this page held at false and then at true, one at a time, with the whole graph recomputed each time. "If false" and "if true" are where this page’s truth score lands; "Move" is how far apart they are. "If settled" is that same distance with the input’s confidence held at 1, which is what it would be worth once the work behind it is finished, so the gap between Move and If settled is the value of doing that work. This is one input at a time and finds single points of failure; it does not test several inputs moving together, which is how correlated assumptions actually fail.

Evidence LedgerHow evidence is scored →

Supporting

#FindingBears onStarts atTruthConfLinkImpScoreEVS
1The U.S.-backed security order is one contested cause, alongside nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, of the historically unusual absence of any direct war between great powers since 1945.
Rests on: Nothing observed: no source type recorded, so this claim starts at a coin flip
this belief0.500.500.001.000.50+0.000.00
2The U.S. Navy has patrolled major global shipping lanes for decades, a public good widely credited with supporting globalization and poverty reduction.
Rests on: Nothing observed: no source type recorded, so this claim starts at a coin flip
this belief0.500.500.001.000.50+0.000.00
3After 1953, a U.S.-protected democratic South Korea and a famine-prone autocratic North Korea diverged sharply on every major human-development measure.
Rests on: Nothing observed: no source type recorded, so this claim starts at a coin flip
this belief0.500.500.001.000.50+0.000.00

Weakening

#FindingBears onStarts atTruthConfLinkImpScoreEVS
1The 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq destabilized the region and contributed to the rise of ISIS, with death-toll estimates ranging widely, from roughly 200,000 documented violent deaths (Iraq Body Count) to over 650,000 excess deaths (2006 Lancet study).
Iraq Body Count; 2006 Lancet study
Rests on: Nothing observed: no source type recorded, so this claim starts at a coin flip
this belief0.500.500.001.000.50-0.000.00
2Declassified records document CIA funding and training of Afghan Mujahideen fighters in the 1980s, a program that contributed to the conditions from which Al-Qaeda later emerged.
Rests on: Nothing observed: no source type recorded, so this claim starts at a coin flip
this belief0.500.500.001.000.50-0.000.00

Weight for 0.00 · weight against 0.00 · net +0.00

Evidence Verification Score 0.00 · supporting 0.00 · weakening 0.00. 5 of 5 findings have no source type named yet; 5 have no replication count recorded, so each counts as one study.

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Findings that can fail empirically. Each has its own page where its accuracy is argued; the source is shown under it. Bears on says which claim the finding is filed under: this belief, or one of its reasons, in which case it reaches this page through that reason's truth score and is counted there. “Starts at” is where a finding's page begins before anyone argues with it, set by what kind of source it is, how many independent replications exist and how many of them agreed. A finding nobody has classified starts at 0.50, and at 0.50 it contributes nothing however often it is listed.

Interests, Not PositionsConflict resolution framework →

Interests of each side

Primary conflict pair (computed: the interest with the highest Validity x Drives on each side) Taiwanese, South Koreans, and residents of the Baltic states need national security guaranteed by forward deterrence and credible alliances. (0.50 x 0.50) against Enlisted service members, military spouses and children, and American taxpayers need fewer U.S. troop casualties and less financial exposure in conflicts far from U.S. borders. (0.50 x 0.50). 50% of the paired weight sits on the supporting side. This is the one disagreement actually driving the debate: the product uses validity on purpose, so a cover story cannot lead a side and neither can a worthy need nobody is moved by. Validity is whether the need should be honored, argued on its own page and never by the power of who holds it; Drives is whether the need is really why this side holds its position, settled by what the side does. They are different numbers.

Best compromise

Hold allied nations to explicit defense-spending targets, such as NATO's guideline of 2 percent of GDP, so U.S. taxpayers are not the default backstop.Rests on Why difficult 0.50

Submitting opens GitHub; you need a free account. As you type, claims already on the site that say the same thing are shown, and a duplicate becomes a vote for the one already here.

Positions are what people say they want; interests are why. Each interest is a need with a subject (who needs what), and that one sentence is argued two ways that never borrow from each other. Validity asks whether the need should be honored, and is settled on the interest's own page by the mirror test: would the side accept the same need honored for its opponents, and what happens if everyone pursues it? Who holds the need, how many of them there are and how much power they have never count. Drives asks whether this need is really why the side holds its position, and is settled by the side's record, not its rhetoric (the scoring methodology calls it Linkage Accuracy). Score = Validity x Drives. A motive that is real and illegitimate stays in the table with its low validity: it is scored, not deleted, and the same suspicion applies to both sides.

Related Beliefs

  1. The legislature, not the executive alone, should generally have to approve any sustained military action abroad. 0.50
  2. A country should generally keep its military spending high in peacetime rather than cutting it once threats seem to fade. 0.50
  3. We should give our outdated weapons to democratic allies trying to defend their territory. 0.50
  4. We cannot stand by while cultures are subjected to genocide, as exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 0.50
  5. A strong America is good for the planet. (this page)

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The other beliefs filed under Military; this one is listed unlinked.

Not filled in yet

Falsifiability Testnothing named that would strengthen or weaken this belief if it turned up
Testable Predictionsnothing stated that we should observe if this belief is true or false
Objective Criteriano yardstick both sides would accept in advance has been proposed
What Acting On This Would Cost and Gainno costs or benefits priced yet
Logical Anatomythe claim has not been split into its component parts
Media Resourcesno books, studies or films weighed
Legal Frameworkno laws or rulings cited
General to Specificnot linked to broader or narrower beliefs

Submitting opens GitHub; you need a free account. As you type, claims already on the site that say the same thing are shown, and a duplicate becomes a vote for the one already here.

Submitting opens GitHub; you need a free account. As you type, claims already on the site that say the same thing are shown, and a duplicate becomes a vote for the one already here.

Submitting opens GitHub; you need a free account. As you type, claims already on the site that say the same thing are shown, and a duplicate becomes a vote for the one already here.

Parts of the template nobody has filled in here. They are named rather than shown, because an empty table is not a finding, and each one is a reason the confidence above is not higher. A part that takes rows has a form for its first one.

What this page needs right now

#The gapWhere it goesWho is best placed to fill it
1A reason to disagree that answers: “Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan”Argument Trees, Reasons to disagreesomeone who holds the opposing position
2A study, record or dataset for “Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan”, which rests on argument aloneEvidence Ledgeranyone with the source
3A measurement both sides would accept in advance, with the reading each side predictsObjective Criteriaanyone who can name a yardstick the other side would sign

Named gaps, read off the tables above, so a newcomer can see exactly where a contribution goes. None of them requires agreeing with the page, and each one links to the form it goes in.

What the numbers are made of

Share on the agree side
no scored weight either way
Confidence
33%. Weakest parts: scrutiny 0% · grounding 0%
Depended on
ReasonRank 0.0033, 149 of 2173
Strongest reason for
Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan. +0.00
Strongest reason against
Interventions justified by U.S. strength have repeatedly produced long-term instability instead of the promised order, as in Vietnam, the 2003 Iraq War, and the 2011 Libya intervention. -0.00
What would move this most
Settling Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. ret…: 0.50 if false, 0.50 if true
Coverage
Of 12 scored rows, 12 have no linkage page, 12 have no importance page, 12 have no uniqueness page. This page reads 18 other pages. 18 of them are one-sided or empty: Credible U.S. deterrence discourages aggression, and visible U.S. retreat has come before major invasions, as when Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine followed a widely perceived U.S. and NATO retreat from Afghanistan.; U.S. military and economic power was decisive in defeating the three totalitarian projects of the 20th century: Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and, at the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union.; Unlike earlier dominant powers, the United States has not annexed foreign territory to expand its own borders after its wars, and its postwar goals have centered on market access and regional stability rather than colonization.; When the United States pulls back from a region, rival authoritarian powers rather than peace have historically filled the vacuum, as with Russian and Iranian expansion into the space left by reduced U.S. presence in Syria.; Interventions justified by U.S. strength have repeatedly produced long-term instability instead of the promised order, as in Vietnam, the 2003 Iraq War, and the 2011 Libya intervention.; To preserve regional order, the United States has armed, funded, or diplomatically shielded authoritarian governments against their own populations, such as Gulf monarchies and Cold War-era Latin American juntas.; Sustained, trillion-dollar-scale U.S. global military commitments compete directly with domestic investment in infrastructure, health care, and education.; The U.S.-backed security order is one contested cause, alongside nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, of the historically unusual absence of any direct war between great powers since 1945.; The U.S. Navy has patrolled major global shipping lanes for decades, a public good widely credited with supporting globalization and poverty reduction.; After 1953, a U.S.-protected democratic South Korea and a famine-prone autocratic North Korea diverged sharply on every major human-development measure.; The 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq destabilized the region and contributed to the rise of ISIS, with death-toll estimates ranging widely, from roughly 200,000 documented violent deaths (Iraq Body Count) to over 650,000 excess deaths (2006 Lancet study).; Declassified records document CIA funding and training of Afghan Mujahideen fighters in the 1980s, a program that contributed to the conditions from which Al-Qaeda later emerged.; Taiwanese, South Koreans, and residents of the Baltic states need national security guaranteed by forward deterrence and credible alliances.; American farmers who export grain and soybeans, U.S. manufacturers who sell abroad, and merchant shipping crews need open, predictable global trade routes and markets for U.S. goods and investment.; Taiwanese, Ukrainians, and Israelis need rival authoritarian powers (China, Russia, Iran) kept from dominating their regions.; Enlisted service members, military spouses and children, and American taxpayers need fewer U.S. troop casualties and less financial exposure in conflicts far from U.S. borders.; Medicaid patients, public school students and teachers, and commuters who rely on aging roads and transit need federal spending directed toward domestic priorities such as infrastructure, health care, and education.; Opponents need to avoid entanglement with, or perceived complicity in, human-rights abuses by allied and client states..

Structural Checks

FindingHow seriousWhat it means
Nothing stated would show it falsea noteNo testable prediction is listed, so as written there is no observation that would count against this belief.

Faults the shape of the argument can show without reading a word of it: a claim used to support itself, a conclusion listed among its own premises, the same page counted twice. None of these changes a score. The wiki also specifies pattern-matching the prose for ten named fallacies; that is deliberately not done here, because a matcher looking for “attacking the person rather than the argument” would fire on the central legitimate argument on this whole site, and a score moved by a regular expression has no page to appeal to.

Scoring EngineTruth scores →

QuantityValueHow
Argument score+0.00argument rows: weight for minus weight against
Evidence score+0.00evidence rows: weight for minus weight against
Prediction contribution+0.00prediction rows, same signed formula as every other row
Belief score+0.00the three lines above added together
Positive total0.00every row whose signed contribution came out positive, from either side
Negative total0.00every row whose signed contribution came out negative, as a magnitude
Starting point0.50where this claim starts before any of its own rows count: Nothing observed: no source type recorded, so this claim starts at a coin flip
Weight of the starting point1.00k x a bounded reward for independent replication, k = 1, capped at 2.0 x k
Truth score, argued0.50(positive + weight x starting point) / (positive + negative + weight)
Truth score0.50argued truth, capped by the weakest load-bearing component that has its own page
ReasonRank0.0033how much of the site depends on this page: rank 149 of 2173. The share of a walk that starts at the 162 beliefs and steps to the pages they read, with a 0.85 chance of stepping on each time
Work value0.0022ReasonRank x (1 - confidence): how much settling this page would be worth to everything above it
Completenessyesat least one scored reason on each side (an importance page: at least one interest; an interest page: both readings filled)

Cite this page A strong America is good for the planet. Idea Stock Exchange, belief page strong-america-good-planet, truth 0.50, confidence 33%, revision 42c8344 of 2026-10-04. The revision is what makes this quotable: these numbers move as the argument is worked on, and rebuilding that revision reproduces them exactly.

Every number on this page as data: strong-america-good-planet.json. Constants: K = 1 · UNARG = 0.5 · DEFLINK = 1 · DEFIMP = 0.5 · DEFUNIQ = 1. A reason placed under a conclusion is presumed relevant until a linkage page says otherwise; the burden is on the challenger. The neutral start for importance, the wiki's own rule.

Every value here is computed from the tables above at build time. Nothing is typed.