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Idea Stock Exchange

Best beliefs

Every belief on the site, the best argued first. Belief score is the weight for minus the weight against, from the reasons, findings and predictions beneath it; scored rows is how many of those there are. Truth is capped by the weakest load-bearing part that has a page, which is why a well-argued belief can still read 0.50.

What this list means

How it is worked out. Every reason, finding and prediction under a belief is a row, and every row gets a signed score: its direction, times how far its own page has been argued from 50-50 (two times its truth score minus one), times how much work stands behind that page (confidence), times how relevant it is (linkage), how much it matters (importance) and how little it repeats another row (uniqueness). Each of those numbers is argued on a page of its own. A row argued true adds weight to its side; a row argued false counts against it; a row nobody has argued sits at 50-50 and adds nothing. Ties go to the belief with more scored rows beneath it.

Why it is tracked. So the best supported positions come first, and so that volume cannot buy a place: listing twenty reasons nobody has argued moves a belief exactly as far as listing none. The exact rule, with its numbers →

What it shows. Beliefs ranked by belief score: the weight of the rows for a belief minus the weight of the rows against it.

#BeliefBelief scoreScored rowsTruthConfTopic
1Letting Congress overturn a presidential pardon by a two-thirds vote of both chambers would reduce the use of the pardon power for private gain.+0.39160.5054%Public office and private gain
2Barring members of Congress and the president from owning or trading individual stocks would reduce the use of public office for private gain.+0.32240.5067%Public office and private gain
3Opposing players have targeted Caitlin Clark with harder and more frequent physical play than other rookies and stars receive.+0.27190.5041%Caitlin Clark
4Caitlin Clark's popularity owes more to her play than to her being white.+0.18180.5039%Caitlin Clark
5Leaving Caitlin Clark off the 2024 United States Olympic basketball team was the right call.+0.14200.5041%Caitlin Clark
6Caitlin Clark is the main reason WNBA attendance and television ratings rose sharply in 2024 and 2025.+0.07210.5041%Caitlin Clark
7Barring the president and members of Congress from giving any official government function to a family member would reduce the use of public office for private gain.+0.00150.5053%Public office and private gain
8Requiring the president and members of Congress to publish their tax returns would reduce the use of public office for private gain.+0.00140.5053%Public office and private gain
9We should tax property by the value of the land itself, independent of what is or is not built on it. draft+0.00590.5038%Taxes
10We cannot stand by while cultures are subjected to genocide, as exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. draft+0.00290.5036%Military
11America should adopt a comprehensive scorecard that measures national progress across human development, economic vitality, environmental health, and social cohesion, not just GDP. draft+0.00270.5036%Evidence & Process
12A good end does not justify using means that would otherwise be wrong. draft+0.00260.5033%Core Principles
13We should support and strengthen democracy to restore the voter's voice. draft+0.00250.5036%Democracy & Rule of Law
14Congressional term limits would reduce corruption and improve legislative quality. draft+0.00220.5036%Democracy & Rule of Law
15Public policy should be driven by data and measurable outcomes rather than by ideology. draft+0.00220.5036%Evidence & Process
16America should grow to one billion citizens. draft+0.00210.5037%Immigration
17Ranked-choice voting produces better electoral outcomes than plurality voting. draft+0.00200.5033%Democracy & Rule of Law
18We should make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far. draft+0.00190.5036%Energy
19America should encourage legal immigration. draft+0.00190.5035%Immigration
20America should end illegal immigration. draft+0.00190.5035%Immigration
21The United States should stop outsourcing and become a manufacturing superpower. draft+0.00180.5036%Trade
22Workers should get tax cuts, and tips should not be taxed as income. draft+0.00170.5036%Taxes
23America should invest in energy research. draft+0.00170.5035%Energy
24Representative civic juries should be convened, online and in person, to deliberate on key legislation. draft+0.00170.5035%Democracy & Rule of Law
25America should streamline the system to recruit and retain highly skilled workers. draft+0.00160.5036%Immigration
26We should defend the freedom of religion and the freedom from religion. draft+0.00160.5036%Rights & Liberty
27We should defend our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech. draft+0.00140.5035%Rights & Liberty
28America should strengthen its global leadership by modeling a strong, functioning democracy at home. draft+0.00130.5035%Evidence & Process
29America should reform its immigration laws. draft+0.00120.5036%Immigration
30A strong America is good for the planet. draft+0.00120.5033%Military
31We should give our outdated weapons to democratic allies trying to defend their territory. draft+0.0090.5032%Military
32Competition in educational opportunities, such as charter schools and school vouchers, makes traditional public schools better. draft+0.0080.5033%K-12
33We should defend the United States Constitution. draft+0.0070.5034%Democracy & Rule of Law
34Cities should generally redesign streets to slow cars down, even when that lengthens drive times. draft+0.0060.5032%Autos
35The legislature, not the executive alone, should generally have to approve any sustained military action abroad. draft+0.0060.5032%Military
36A country should generally keep its military spending high in peacetime rather than cutting it once threats seem to fade. draft+0.0060.5032%Military
37Banning the sale of new gasoline cars by a fixed date is generally a mistake. draft+0.0060.5032%Autos
38The United Kingdom should rejoin the European single market. draft+0.0060.5032%Countries
39Long prison sentences generally do little to reduce crime compared with raising the odds of being caught. draft+0.0060.5032%Law
40Japan should keep immigration low even as its population shrinks. draft+0.0060.5032%Countries
41Judges should be allowed to keep suspects they consider dangerous in jail before trial, even when those suspects could afford bail. draft+0.0060.5032%Law
42Children generally do best when raised by two married parents. draft+0.0060.5032%Family
43Governments should put protecting the environment ahead of economic growth when the two conflict. draft+0.0060.5032%Environment
44Adults should feel free to build their family life around their own happiness rather than around tradition. draft+0.0060.5032%Family
45Technology tends to solve environmental problems better than restrictions on how people live. draft+0.0060.5032%Environment
46Simple life exists on many planets in our galaxy. draft+0.0060.5032%Astronomy
47Longer prison sentences generally make communities safer. draft+0.0060.5032%Crime and Justice
48Technology-building intelligent life has arisen on very few worlds in our galaxy besides Earth. draft+0.0060.5032%Astronomy
49Police departments should spend more of their effort preventing crime than making arrests. draft+0.0060.5032%Crime and Justice
50Museums should generally return human remains and sacred objects to the communities descended from the people they belonged to or who made them. draft+0.0060.5032%Archaeology
51Heavy digital editing generally does not make a photograph any less of a photograph. draft+0.0060.5032%Photography
52Archaeologists should generally excavate important sites now rather than leave them in the ground for future generations. draft+0.0060.5032%Archaeology
53A photograph's worth clearly rests more on what it truthfully shows than on the photographer's artistry. draft+0.0060.5032%Photography
54Self-driving cars can clearly be made safer than human drivers on ordinary roads. draft+0.0060.5032%Engineering
55Adding automation to critical systems tends to create new kinds of failure that are harder to catch than the ones it removes. draft+0.0060.5032%Engineering
56Free trade with other countries makes ordinary people in a country better off overall, even when some industries lose. draft+0.0060.5032%Economics
57Public decisions should generally rest on measured statistics rather than on personal experience and anecdote. draft+0.0060.5032%Statistics
58Statistics quoted in public debate tend to mislead more often than they inform. draft+0.0060.5032%Statistics
59Quoting a famous person generally adds little to whether a claim is true. draft+0.0060.5032%Quotations
60Reference works should generally refuse to print a quotation whose original source cannot be found. draft+0.0060.5032%Quotations
61Banks that are too big to fail should be broken up. draft+0.0060.5032%Finance
62Rules that bar ordinary people from buying investments that are open to the wealthy do more harm than good. draft+0.0060.5032%Finance
63Companies should be banned from putting forced arbitration clauses in consumer contracts. draft+0.0060.5032%Consumer Protection
64Warning labels and disclosure rules do little to change how people buy and add cost without much benefit. draft+0.0060.5032%Consumer Protection
65Training AI on copyrighted work without permission should be against the law. draft+0.0060.5032%Artificial Intelligence
66Governments should not hold back the spread of AI in workplaces in order to protect existing jobs. draft+0.0060.5032%Artificial Intelligence
67Governments should generally provide limited public funding to local newspapers so that local government keeps getting covered. draft+0.0060.5032%Newspapers
68A newspaper that can no longer pay its own way should generally be allowed to close rather than be kept alive with public money or special rules. draft+0.0060.5032%Newspapers
69Cities that spend public money on stadiums for professional teams generally get back less than they put in. draft+0.0060.5032%Sports
70Youth leagues should not offer tackle football to children below high school age. draft+0.0060.5032%Sports
71When a government pays to have software built for public services, its source code should, by default, be made public for anyone to read. draft+0.0060.5032%Software
72Hunting is generally good for wildlife conservation. draft+0.0060.5032%Outdoors
73Phone makers should be allowed to require that every app on their devices pass through an app store they review. draft+0.0060.5032%Software
74Popular national parks should generally require timed-entry reservations. draft+0.0060.5032%Outdoors
75Radio remains an essential news source during emergencies and for people who lack reliable internet access. draft+0.0060.5032%Radio
76For most people, staying able-bodied into old age requires planned strength training that gets harder over time, because everyday activity alone is unlikely to preserve the muscle and bone that keep people independent. draft+0.0060.5032%Fitness
77Talk radio generally does more to drive its listeners apart from people who disagree with them than to inform them. draft+0.0060.5032%Radio
78For most people, ordinary daily activity such as walking delivers most of the health benefit of exercise, and formal workouts add little. draft+0.0060.5032%Fitness
79Paid random rewards in video games should be regulated the way gambling is. draft+0.0060.5032%Games
80Doctors should generally follow standardized treatment guidelines rather than rely on their own judgment. draft+0.0060.5032%Medicine
81Violent content in video games generally needs no government rules beyond the age ratings the game industry already puts on its products. draft+0.0060.5032%Games
82Patients with serious illness should generally be free to try unproven treatments with their own money. draft+0.0060.5032%Medicine
83Popular destinations should generally cap the number of tourists they admit. draft+0.0060.5032%Travel
84The highest-earning households should pay a larger share of their income in taxes than they do today. draft+0.0060.5032%Taxes
85Most people probably need not cut back on their vacation flights for the climate's sake. draft+0.0060.5032%Travel
86Sales taxes on everyday goods should be lower than they are today. draft+0.0060.5032%Taxes
87Scotland would be better off as an independent country. draft+0.0060.5032%Regions
88The seven states that share the Colorado River should let the federal government decide how to divide its shrinking water supply rather than try to negotiate a deal among themselves. draft+0.0060.5032%Regions
89Large companies should be required by law to give their workers seats on their boards. draft+0.0060.5032%Business
90Charging drivers a fee to enter the most crowded part of Manhattan is the right policy. draft+0.0060.5032%Cities
91A company generally serves the public best when it focuses on making a profit for its owners within the law. draft+0.0060.5032%Business
92Houston is right to go without traditional citywide zoning. draft+0.0060.5032%Cities
93Streaming services generally pay working musicians too little to make a living from recorded music. draft+0.0060.5032%Music
94A person's choices matter more than their circumstances in how their life turns out. draft+0.0060.5032%People
95Streaming has clearly done more good than harm for musicians by letting anyone reach a worldwide audience without a record label. draft+0.0060.5032%Music
96Most people's character is set by their upbringing and changes little in adulthood. draft+0.0060.5032%People
97Comedians should generally be able to joke about any subject without losing work over the offense a joke causes. draft+0.0060.5032%Humor
98Communities are generally better off when most people belong to a religious congregation. draft+0.0060.5032%Religion
99Jokes that mock people for their race, religion, disability or sex do real harm and deserve public pushback. draft+0.0060.5032%Humor
100Religious beliefs should almost never be the basis for deciding what the law should be. draft+0.0060.5032%Religion
101Traditional publishers still generally produce better books for readers than self-publishing does. draft+0.0060.5032%Publishing
102A four-year college degree is still worth its cost for most students. draft+0.0060.5032%College and University
103Most working authors are better off self-publishing than signing with a traditional publisher. draft+0.0060.5032%Publishing
104Most young people would be better served by trade training or an apprenticeship than by a four-year degree. draft+0.0060.5032%College and University
105Governments should generally require proven childhood vaccines for school attendance. draft+0.0060.5032%Diseases
106Letting public education money follow each student to the school their family chooses clearly improves education for the families who need it most. draft+0.0060.5032%K-12
107Routine cancer screening of healthy adults with no symptoms generally does more harm than good. draft+0.0060.5032%Diseases
108Sending public money to private and charter schools generally weakens the neighborhood schools that most children still attend. draft+0.0060.5032%K-12
109Adults should generally be allowed to buy common prescription drugs from a pharmacist without a doctor's visit. draft+0.0060.5032%Drugs
110Canceling a large share of existing student loan debt would do more good than harm. draft+0.0060.5032%Student Debt
111Governments should generally set a maximum price for medicines that are still under patent. draft+0.0060.5032%Drugs
112Adults who borrowed for college generally should repay their loans rather than pass the cost to taxpayers who did not attend. draft+0.0060.5032%Student Debt
113California should generally override local zoning rules to force far more housing to be built. draft+0.0060.5032%U.S. States
114Schools should generally require students to read the classic works of literature rather than let them choose their own books. draft+0.0060.5032%Literature
115Texas should connect its separate electric grid to the national grids rather than keeping it apart. draft+0.0060.5032%U.S. States
116Popular genre fiction such as romance, crime and fantasy generally deserves the same critical respect as literary fiction. draft+0.0060.5032%Literature
117Judging teachers partly by their students' test results generally makes schools better. draft+0.0060.5032%Teaching
118Philosophy should generally be taught in high school alongside math and science. draft+0.0060.5032%Philosophy
119Teachers generally do their best work when they control what and how they teach rather than following a set script. draft+0.0060.5032%Teaching
120Philosophy generally makes no real progress on its big questions. draft+0.0060.5032%Philosophy
121Statues honoring historical figures who did serious wrongs should generally be removed from public squares. draft+0.0060.5032%History
122Human activity is clearly the main cause of the warming seen over the past century. draft+0.0060.5032%Climate
123Historians generally should not judge people of the past by today's moral standards. draft+0.0060.5032%History
124Scientists and agencies who publish regional and local climate forecasts generally present them with more confidence than the climate models behind them have earned. draft+0.0060.5032%Climate
125Fish clearly feel pain in a way that matters, not just a reflex to avoid harm. draft+0.0060.5032%Animals
126String theory has clearly failed to earn the central place it holds in physics. draft+0.0060.5032%Physics
127Claims that apes and parrots understand language generally reflect human wishful thinking rather than real ability. draft+0.0060.5032%Animals
128Building a new, larger particle collider is clearly worth its cost for what it could reveal. draft+0.0060.5032%Physics
129Most people with depression or anxiety would clearly benefit from professional treatment rather than handling it on their own. draft+0.0060.5032%Psychology
130Governments should generally fund efforts to keep endangered minority languages alive. draft+0.0060.5032%Languages
131Teaching children to build toughness and tolerate discomfort does more for their mental health than teaching them to monitor and talk about their feelings. draft+0.0060.5032%Psychology
132Schools in a country with one dominant language should teach mainly in that language rather than in students' home languages. draft+0.0060.5032%Languages
133Tariffs on imported goods generally cost a country's consumers more than they save its workers. draft+0.0060.5032%Trade
134Where a person ends up in life is shaped more by the family and neighborhood they were born into than by their own choices. draft+0.0060.5032%Sociology
135A country should protect its key manufacturing industries with tariffs even when imports are cheaper. draft+0.0060.5032%Trade
136In wealthy countries, most adults who stay poor do so mainly because of their own choices about school, work, and family, not because the chance to escape was closed to them. draft+0.0060.5032%Sociology
137Raising the minimum wage generally helps low-paid workers more than it hurts them. draft+0.0060.5032%Jobs
138Dictionaries should generally record how people actually use words rather than rule on which uses are correct. draft+0.0060.5032%Dictionaries
139Employers should generally be free to fire workers without having to show a reason, as long as the firing is not discriminatory. draft+0.0060.5032%Jobs
140A dictionary should generally refuse to list a widespread misuse of a word as a legitimate meaning until careful writers have accepted it. draft+0.0060.5032%Dictionaries
141Internet providers should generally be barred by law from speeding up, slowing down or charging extra for particular websites and services. draft+0.0060.5032%Internet
142Television channels that present opinion shows in the style of a newscast should be required to label those shows as opinion on screen. draft+0.0060.5032%Television
143Laws that require people to prove their age before using social media do more harm than good. draft+0.0060.5032%Internet
144Publicly funded television news is generally not worth the cost now that viewers have countless free sources. draft+0.0060.5032%Television
145Social media platforms should be required to pay news publishers for the articles that draw users into their feeds. draft+0.0060.5032%Social Media
146Ordinary people are generally better served when social media platforms show news posts without labeling, fact-checking, or removing them than when platforms do those things. draft+0.0060.5032%Social Media
147Journalists should generally have a legal right to refuse to reveal a confidential source's identity, except where a court finds the name is needed to prevent serious harm. draft+0.0060.5032%Press Freedom
148A news outlet that publishes a false and damaging claim about anyone, including a public figure, should generally have to pay damages if it failed to take reasonable care to check the claim. draft+0.0060.5032%Press Freedom
149A single government-run health insurance program covering everyone would generally deliver better care at lower cost than a system of competing private insurers. draft+0.0060.5032%Health Insurance
150Companies should need a person's clear permission before collecting their data for advertising. draft+0.0060.5032%Privacy and Data
151People should generally pay for routine medical care out of their own pockets and buy private insurance only to cover large, unexpected expenses. draft+0.0060.5032%Health Insurance
152Law enforcement should be able to read encrypted messages when it has a warrant. draft+0.0060.5032%Privacy and Data
153Any registered voter should be able to vote by mail without giving a reason. draft+0.0060.5032%Elections
154New movies should generally open in theaters for a period before they reach streaming services. draft+0.0060.5032%Movies
155Voters should generally be required to show government-issued photo identification before casting a ballot. draft+0.0060.5032%Elections
156Studios should let viewers choose to watch new movies at home on the same day they open in theaters. draft+0.0060.5032%Movies
157We should keep men out of women's sports. draft+0.0060.5030%Sports
158Public office should not be usable for private gain. draft+0.0050.5040%Public office and private gain
159True freedom requires balancing individual liberty with personal responsibility and active civic engagement. draft+0.0040.5016%Rights & Liberty
160Students in failing schools should be able to exercise school choice. draft+0.0020.5013%K-12
161Homelessness, crime, and low mass transit use in cities like Denver are holding back urban density. draft+0.0010.5012%Cities
162Everyone should be treated with respect and dignity. draft+0.0000.500%Rights & Liberty

Built from revision 42c8344, committed 2026-10-04. 2173 pages. Every number above is computed from the two tables in that revision, so a reader who fetches it gets these numbers and not different ones.